Global market volatility and economic uncertainty will continue to boost the sustained increase in demand for gold and support higher prices.
Standard Bank Group has forecast an average gold price of US$1 780/oz for 2012, which is about 13% higher than that achieved in 2011 (US$1 572/oz) but downgraded by 6% from our previous forecast of US$1 895/oz.
Gold is generally considered as a safe haven for investors in the face of concerns about global market volatility and economic uncertainty.
Walter De Wet, Standard Bank Group’s Global Head of Commodity Research, says: “Our view on gold remains bullish. Our core investment drivers have not changed significantly but have merely been delayed by the sovereign debt crisis surrounding the euro. In our view, global liquidity will continue to grow in the current economic environment, which would be supportive for gold. Increased liquidity and the US elections during the second half of the year will likely provide upward pressure on the price and increase volatility.”
Standard Bank Group projects a sustained increase in annual demand which, if proved correct, will likely serve to support and keep upward momentum in the gold price. In this regard, the report states, the medium- to long-term forecast (2013 to 2015) remains unchanged.
“We believe that demand in all sectors will remain strong, particularly investment (bars and coins) and jewellery, mainly from India and China. We expect central banks to continue to accumulate gold. Under these circumstances, a sustained increase in demand will likely have a moderating effect on a potentially sharp downward correction in price in the longer term. Our view is supported by our supply-and-demand forecast, which implies tight supply and demand,” says Mr De Wet.