Daily Analysis for Monday May 20

This week begins with great anticipation for profitable trading opportunities. Banks in Europe and Canada will be closed on Monday, but traders could take advantage of the release of the Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Later in the week, we are expecting inflation and retail sales data out the United Kingdom. These announcements will surely pave a clear direction for the British Pound. Meanwhile, home sales in the world’s largest economy will be put forth on Thursday. Whether the U.S. dollar is affected, that remains to be seen.


Friday’s inflation report was softer than consensus expectations. Headline CPI is increasing at its slowest since October 2009 when the economy was still experiencing the consequences of the recession. In this environment, inflation is clearly not the main radar the Bank of Canada is looking at for now, but growth is. Given our expectations of subpar growth for 2013, rate hikes in Canada are unlikely anytime soon. Look for the Loonie to continue weakening in the coming days.

Stop loss 1.0250

Take profit 1.0315


The yellow metal started the new week on the wrong foot, tumbling during Monday’s morning session as traders increased their bearish bets on this commodity. It has been falling since October 2012, with the sharpest market movement taking place just last month. We have recently reached the lowest point last seen on April 14th. Traders are advised to hold onto their short positions until further notice. We expect to reach $1,300 within days, possibly by Thursday of this week.

Stop loss $1,370

Take profit $1,300


The Bank of Israel surprised with a 25 basis point rate cut to 1.5% last week, an intra-meeting move. The next scheduled meeting is set for May 27th. We’ve been looking for more cuts, especially as the Shekel has strengthened in recent weeks. As it cut rates, the central bank noted that the shekel has been boosted by natural gas sales and global monetary easing. Furthermore, the Bank of Israel announced a plan to increase its holdings of foreign exchange in an effort to offset the money from gas sales. For now, the high probability of sequential rate cuts suggests this pair is likely to continue heading north. We’re currently aiming at 3.6370.

Stop Loss 3.6316

Take profit 3.6370

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