Next Week’s Data and Events

Nonfarm payrolls should post another solid increase in July (185K). Private payrolls should match our headline estimate, as federal government job losses should be equally met by state and local job gains. If our estimate were realized, short-run and medium-run trends in payroll employment would stay near 200K on a three-month, six-month and 12-month average basis.

Elsewhere, we look for the unemployment rate to tick down to 7.5%, average hourly earnings to rise 0.2%, the workweek to come in unchanged at 34.5 hours, aggregate hours worked to rise 0.2% and aggregate weekly payrolls (i.e., labor income) to increase 0.4%.

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