Riksbank forward guidance does not quite work

While a no-change from Sweden’s Riksbank seems a foregone conclusion later this week (meeting today, rate announcement Thursday morning), recent domestic data suggests that the focus will be on the Bank’s forecast paths/ communication – or, to use a more fashionable expression, the Bank’s ‘forward guidance’ – for both the repo rate and the real economy. The last rate announcement was on July 3rd, and while Q2 GDP since then has come in weaker than expected, monthly data reports for June and July, such as unemployment, manufacturing and consumer sentiment, CPI, household credit and capacity utilization, have all edged higher, suggesting a stronger end to Q2 and going into Q3.

Read the full report: FX Daily


Deutsche Bank

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