Angola’s fiscal performance has been in-line with the 2016 Budget


The Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Angola (“Angola”) (Ba3 / B / B+), is pleased to publish an update on its budgetary performance and certain other key performance indicators.

Highlights (as of 30th June 2016):

• Total Fiscal Expenditure: The 2016 Budget had forecasted $30bn; this is now estimated to be $24bn by the end of the year;

• Total Fiscal Revenue: The 2016 Budget had forecasted $24,4bn. Updated fiscal estimates indicates to be $18bn], of which $8,3bn accounts for oil revenue;

• Budget Deficit: The 2016 Budget had forecasted 5.5%, this is estimated to realize at [6.0%].

• Oil Sector:

• The average realized oil price for the first semester through to has been [$36/bbl]. 2016 Budget had forecasted an average oil price of $45/bbl. Updated fiscal projections are based upon on an average oil price forecasted of [$41/bbl].

• The average oil production in 2016 has been 1.77m barrels/day, in line with the 2016 Budget estimates.

• Funding:

• External funding facilities to the tune of [$11,46bn] have been successfully raised from Nov. 2015 to June 2016. These include:

•Funding from the China Development Bank for [$5bn]

This scenario ensures Government to have a greater fiscal equilibrium

• Funding from ICBC and Eximbank and CDB (other facilities) $1.98bn (Concluded and to be concluded until the end of 2016)

• [$1.18bn] for projects financed by funding supported by various international Export Credit Agencies (Concluded and to be concluded until the end of 2016)

• Framework Agreements and Budget Suport (conclude and to be concluded until the end of 2016) $3.3B

• FX Reserves (excluding the SWF): Stood at $24bn as at 6th June

• Domestic funding totaling (Government securities) [AOA 512.36bn] have been successfully executed in 2016

• Government Debt Levels¹:  Stood at [$47,9bn] as at

  • External debt [$25,5bn]

• Upcoming External Debt Maturities in next 12 months: [$4,4bn]

Principal    3,2
Interest     1,1
Total external debt service  4,4

• Estimated GDP growth rate in 2016: [1,3%] [1]

[1] This does not include debt at state owned companies

Despite a challenging macro backdrop and volatility in oil prices, Angola’s fiscal performance has been in-line with the 2016 Budget. On the macro front, oil production is higher than 2015 levels at [1.77m barrels/day] and we have realized an average oil price as Budgeted. The Government had removed diesel price subsidies in Jan’16 and are continuously evaluating reducing expenditures related to non-critical projects. The government continues to make progress on the implementation of fiscal structural reforms aimed at broadening the tax base, diversifying the sources of revenues and improving public spending efficiency; these initiatives were commended by the IMF on its recently concluded two week visit.  From a funding perspective, Angola continues to demonstrate access to diversified sources of international financing. Since the successful execution of its $1.5bn Eurobond in Nov’15; Angola has raised an incremental [$10bn] from a combination of international banks & institutional investors and Export Credit Agencies. As it relates to liquidity, the BNA continues to maintain a healthy level of Foreign Exchange reserves equivalent to [8 months] of import coverage. An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team visited Luanda from June 1–14, 2016, for discussions on an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) supported program. As noted by the IMF, the dialogue was candid and constructive. Angola fully acknowledges the comments & feedback from the IMF team as it relates to suggested reforms that the government can undertake to safeguard the economy.  The Angola Government decision to dialogue IMF on an economic program supported by financial assistance has happen in a context where oil prices have reached very low levels, and presenting perspective to reach levels close to USD 20. In fact, in January 2016, the oil price have reached levels of USD 28 / bbl. The recent changes the international oil market has bringing out some more optimistic outlook for the oil price prospects, taking into account   the recent recovery. This scenario ensures Government to have a greater fiscal equilibrium. However, the Government of Angola remains largely committed to pursuing its structural reform agenda. In light of its recent economic performance and access to sufficient funding, Angola will not be requiring funding from the IMF. Angola will continue its program of technical assistance with the IMF; the next IMF staff visit is expected to proceed as scheduled in Oct’16. Finally, in the coming weeks Angola will be conducting a series of international investor meetings to provide further updates.”

Source: Ministry of Finance, Republic of Angola.


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