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Un nouveau rapport de la Banque mondiale prévoit un triplement de la part des pays en développement dans les investissements mondiaux d’ici 2030

Posted on 20 May 2013 by Africa Business

D’ici dix-sept ans, les pays en développement, et principalement ceux d’Asie de l’Est et d’Amérique latine, abriteront la moitié des capitaux mondiaux — soit 158 000 milliards de dollars (en dollars de 2010) — contre un tiers seulement aujourd’hui. C’est ce que prévoit la dernière édition des Global Development Horizons (GDH) de la Banque mondiale, un rapport qui étudie l’évolution probable des tendances en matière d’investissement, d’épargne et de mouvement de capitaux sur les vingt prochaines années.

Selon cette nouvelle publication intitulée Capital for the Future: Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World (« Les capitaux de demain : épargne et investissement dans un monde interdépendant »), les pays en développement, qui ne représentaient qu’un cinquième des investissements mondiaux en 2000, devrait voir leur part tripler d’ici 2030. Les changements démographiques joueront un grand rôle dans ces mutations structurelles puisque la population mondiale devrait passer de 7 milliards en 2010 à 8,5 milliards en 2030 tandis que les pays développés connaissent un vieillissement rapide.

« Le rapport GDH repose sur l’exploitation d’une somme phénoménale d’informations statistiques et constitue l’un des efforts les plus aboutis de projection dans un futur éloigné », explique Kaushik Basu, premier vice-président et économiste en chef de la Banque mondiale. « L’expérience de pays aussi divers que la Corée du Sud, l’Indonésie, le Brésil, la Turquie et l’Afrique du Sud nous montre combien le rôle de l’investissement est crucial pour la croissance à long terme. Dans moins d’une génération, l’investissement mondial sera dominé par les pays en développement, la Chine et l’Inde en tête. Ces deux pays devraient, en effet, assurer 38 % des investissements bruts mondiaux en 2030. Ces changements vont modifier le paysage économique mondial et c’est ce qu’étudie le rapport GDH. »

Le rattrapage des retards de productivité, l’intégration croissante dans les marchés mondiaux, la poursuite de bonnes politiques macroéconomiques ainsi que les progrès accomplis dans l’éducation et la santé sont autant de facteurs d’accélération de la croissance qui créent d’énormes opportunités d’investissement, lesquelles entraînent à leur tour une modification de l’équilibre économique mondial en faveur des pays en développement..À cela s’ajoute l’explosion démographique de la jeunesse, qui contribuera aussi à doper l’investissement : la population globale des pays en développement devrait s’accroître de 1,4 milliard d’individus d’ici 2030, sachant que le bénéfice de ce « dividende démographique » n’a pas encore été totalement récolté, en particulier dans les régions relativement plus jeunes que sont l’Afrique subsaharienne et l’Asie du Sud.

Les pays en développement auront probablement, enfin, les ressources nécessaires pour financer des investissements massifs dans les infrastructures et les services, au premier rang desquels l’éducation et la santé, ce qui est une bonne nouvelle. Les robustes taux d’épargne des pays en développement devraient culminer à 34 % du revenu national en 2014 et enregistrer une moyenne annuelle de 32 % jusqu’en 2030. Globalement, le monde en développement représentera 62 à 64 % de l’épargne mondiale en 2030 (25 à 27 000 milliards), contre 45 % en 2010.

Toutefois, comme le souligne Hans Timmer, directeur du Groupe des perspectives de développement à la Banque mondiale, « malgré de hauts niveaux d’épargne, et pour être en mesure de financer leurs importants besoins d’investissements, les pays en développement devront à l’avenir accroître considérablement leur participation, actuellement limitée, aux marchés financiers internationaux s’ils souhaitent tirer parti des profonds bouleversements en cours ».

Le rapport GDH envisage deux scénarios qui diffèrent par la vitesse de convergence entre les niveaux de revenu par habitant des pays développés et des pays en développement, et par le rythme des transformations structurelles des deux groupes (sur le plan du développement du secteur financier et de l’amélioration des institutions notamment). Le premier scénario prévoit une convergence progressive entre les pays développés et les pays en développement et le second une évolution nettement plus rapide.

Pour les vingt prochaines années, le scénario progressif et le scénario rapide prévoient une croissance économique moyenne de, respectivement, 2,6 % et 3 % par an dans le monde, et de 4,8 % et 5,5 % dans les pays en développement.

Dans les deux hypothèses, à l’horizon 2030, les services représenteront plus de 60 % de l’emploi total dans les pays en développement et plus de 50 % du commerce mondial. Ce changement est lié à l’augmentation de la demande en services d’infrastructure induite par l’évolution démographique. Le rapport GDH chiffre d’ailleurs à 14 600 milliards de dollars les besoins de financement d’infrastructures du monde en développement d’ici 2030.

Le rapport souligne aussi le vieillissement des populations d’Asie de l’Est, d’Europe de l’Est et d’Asie centrale, régions dans lesquelles les taux d’épargne privée devraient afficher une baisse particulièrement marquée. L’évolution démographique mettra à l’épreuve la pérennité des finances publiques et les États devront résoudre des enjeux complexes afin de maîtriser la charge des soins de santé et des retraites sans imposer de trop grandes difficultés aux personnes âgées. L’Afrique subsaharienne qui a une population relativement jeune, en augmentation rapide, et qui connaît une solide croissance économique, sera la seule région à ne pas enregistrer de baisse du taux d’épargne.

En termes absolus, l’épargne continuera néanmoins à être dominée par l’Asie et le Moyen-Orient. Selon le scénario de convergence progressive, en 2030, la Chine épargnera nettement plus que les autres pays en développement (9 000 milliards en dollars de 2010), suivie de loin par l’Inde (1 700 milliards), dépassant les niveaux d’épargne du Japon et des États-Unis dans les années 2020.

Selon le même scénario, à l’horizon 2030, la Chine représentera à elle seule 30 % des investissements mondiaux, tandis que le Brésil, l’Inde et la Russie y contribueront ensemble à hauteur de 13 %. En volume, les investissements atteindront 15 000 milliards (en dollars de 2010) dans les pays en développement contre 10 000 milliards pour les pays à revenu élevé. La Chine et l’Inde représenteront près de la moitié des investissements mondiaux dans le secteur manufacturier.

« Le rapport GDH met clairement en évidence le rôle croissant des pays en développement dans l’économie mondiale, et c’est incontestablement une avancée significative », indique Maurizio Bussolo, économiste principal à la Banque mondiale et auteur principal du rapport, tout en soulignant que « cette meilleure répartition des richesses entre pays ne signifie pas que tous les habitants des différents pays en bénéficieront de manière égale ».

Selon le rapport, les groupes de population les moins instruits d’un pays, qui ont peu ou pas du tout d’épargne, se trouvent dans l’impossibilité d’améliorer leur capacité de gain et, pour les plus pauvres, d’échapper à l’engrenage de la pauvreté.

Maurizio Bussolo conclut : « Les responsables politiques des pays en développement ont un rôle déterminant à jouer pour stimuler l’épargne privée par des mesures qui permettront d’élever le capital humain, en particulier pour les plus pauvres ».

Points marquants des différentes régions

L’Asie de l’Est et le Pacifique enregistreront une baisse de leur taux d’épargne et une chute encore plus forte de leur taux d’investissement, taux qui resteront toutefois élevés à l’échelle internationale. Malgré cette baisse des taux, la part de la région dans l’investissement et l’épargne continuera d’augmenter au plan mondial jusqu’en 2030 en raison d’une solide croissance économique. La région connaît un fort dividende démographique, avec moins de 4 personnes d’âge non actif pour 10 personnes d’âge actif, ce qui représente le plus faible taux de dépendance du monde. Ce dividende arrivera à son terme après avoir atteint un pic en 2015. La croissance de la population active ralentira ensuite et en 2040 la région pourrait afficher l’un des taux de dépendance les plus élevés de toutes les régions en développement (avec plus de 5,5 personnes d’âge non actif pour 10 personnes d’âge actif). La Chine, grand moteur de la région, devrait continuer à enregistrer d’importants excédents de la balance des opérations courantes, en raison de fortes baisses de son taux d’investissement liées à l’évolution du pays vers un système de plus faible engagement public dans les investissements.

L’Europe de l’Est et l’Asie centrale forment la région la plus avancée en termes de transition démographique, qui devrait être la seule du monde en développement à atteindre une croissance démographique nulle d’ici 2030. Ce vieillissement, qui devrait ralentir la croissance économique de la région, pourrait aussi entraîner une baisse du taux d’épargne plus forte que dans les autres régions en développement, à l’exception de l’Asie de l’Est. Le taux d’épargne pourrait ainsi descendre au-dessous du taux d’investissement, ce qui obligerait les pays de la région à attirer des flux de capitaux extérieurs pour financer leurs investissements. La région devra également faire face à une importante pression budgétaire due au vieillissement. La Turquie, par exemple, pourrait voir ses dépenses de retraites publiques augmenter de plus de 50 % d’ici 2030 en application du régime actuel. Plusieurs autres pays de la région seront aussi confrontés à d’importantes augmentations des dépenses de retraites et de santé.

L’Amérique latine et les Caraïbes forment une région où l’épargne est historiquement faible, qui pourrait afficher l’épargne la plus faible au monde en 2030. La démographie devrait certes y jouer un rôle positif (avec une baisse du taux de dépendance jusqu’en 2025) mais cet avantage sera probablement neutralisé par le développement du marché financier (qui réduit l’épargne de précaution) et une croissance économique modérée. De même, l’effet positif puis négatif de la démographie sur la croissance de la population active devrait d’abord entraîner une hausse du taux d’investissement à court terme puis une baisse progressive. Toutefois, la relation entre inégalité et épargne pourrait déboucher sur un autre scénario dans cette région. Comme ailleurs, les ménages les plus pauvres ont tendance à moins épargner ; l’amélioration des capacités de gain, l’augmentation des revenus et la réduction des inégalités pourraient donc doper l’épargne nationale et surtout contribuer à rompre le cercle vicieux de la pauvreté entretenu par le faible niveau d’épargne des ménages pauvres.

Le Moyen-Orient et l’Afrique du Nord disposent d’une importante marge de développement du marché financier, susceptible de soutenir l’investissement mais aussi, en raison du vieillissement de la population, de réduire l’épargne. De ce fait, les excédents de la balance des opérations courantes pourraient baisser modérément jusqu’en 2030, en fonction du rythme du développement du marché financier. Cette région est dans une phase de transition démographique relativement précoce qui se caractérise par une croissance encore rapide de la population générale et de la population active en même temps qu’une augmentation de la part des personnes âgées. Le changement de la structure des ménages pourrait aussi influencer les modèles d’épargne. Cette structure pourrait, en effet, évoluer d’une organisation intergénérationnelle, où la famille prend en charge les anciens, vers une structure composée de ménages plus petits avec une plus grande dépendance des personnes âgées vis-à-vis des revenus patrimoniaux. C’est dans cette région que les ménages à faible revenu recourent le moins aux institutions financières officielles pour épargner, d’où une marge importante de développement du rôle des marchés financiers dans l’épargne des ménages.

L’Asie du Sud restera l’une des régions où l’on épargne et investit le plus jusqu’en 2030. Toutefois, compte tenu des possibilités de progression rapide de la croissance économique et des marchés financiers, l’évolution de l’épargne, de l’investissement et des flux de capitaux peut varier considérablement : dans l’hypothèse d’une progression plus rapide de la croissance économique et des marchés financiers, les taux d’investissement resteront élevés tandis que l’épargne baissera considérablement, d’où d’importants déficits de la balance des opérations courantes. L’Asie du Sud est une région jeune qui, vers 2035, aura probablement le plus haut ratio au monde des personnes d’âge actif par rapport aux personnes d’âge non actif. Le phénomène général de déplacement des investissements vers le secteur manufacturier et le secteur des services aux dépens de l’agriculture devrait être particulièrement marqué en Asie du Sud ; la part de cette région dans les investissements globaux devrait ainsi presque doubler dans le secteur manufacturier et gagner au moins huit points de pourcentage dans le secteur des services, dépassant les deux tiers du total.

En Afrique subsaharienne, le taux d’investissement restera stable en raison d’une solide croissance de la population active. C’est la seule région qui n’enregistrera pas de baisse de son taux d’épargne dans l’hypothèse d’un développement modéré des marchés financiers, le vieillissement n’y étant pas un facteur significatif. Dans le scénario d’une croissance plus rapide, les pays africains plus pauvres connaîtront un développement plus marqué des marchés financiers et les investisseurs étrangers seront de plus en plus disposés à financer des investissements dans la région. L’Afrique subsaharienne est actuellement la région la plus jeune, qui affiche aussi le plus haut ratio de dépendance. Ce ratio enregistrera une baisse constante sur toute la période considérée et au-delà, entraînant un dividende démographique durable. C’est cette région qui aura les plus grands besoins d’investissement en infrastructures au cours des vingt prochaines années (en pourcentage du PIB). Dans le même temps, on observera probablement un changement dans le financement des investissements en infrastructures qui devrait être davantage ouvert au secteur privé, avec une augmentation substantielle des afflux de capitaux privés, venant notamment des autres régions en développement.

Source: WorldBank.org

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Forte progression du poids du monde en développement d’ici 2030

Posted on 19 May 2013 by Africa Business

  • La part des pays en développement dans les investissements mondiaux va tripler d’ici 2030.
  • La Chine et l’Inde seront les plus grands investisseurs du monde en développement.
  • L’amélioration des conditions de vie des populations pauvres passe par une meilleure éducation.

Dans moins d’une génération, le monde en développement dominera l’épargne et les investissements mondiaux. C’est ce qui ressort du dernier rapport Global Development Horizons (GDH).

Ce rapport étudie l’évolution probable des tendances en matière d’investissement, d’épargne et de mouvement de capitaux au cours des vingt prochaines années. Il prévoit que, d’ici 2030, les pays en développement, et principalement ceux d’Asie de l’Est et d’Amérique latine, abriteront la moitié des capitaux mondiaux — soit 158 000 milliards de dollars (en dollars de 2010) — contre un tiers seulement aujourd’hui.

Selon cette nouvelle publication intitulée Capital for the Future: Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World (« Les capitaux de demain : épargne et investissement dans un monde interdépendant »), les pays en développement, qui ne représentaient qu’un cinquième des investissements mondiaux en 2000, devrait voir leur part tripler d’ici 2030.

Le rattrapage des retards de productivité, l’intégration croissante dans les marchés mondiaux, la poursuite de bonnes politiques macroéconomiques ainsi que les progrès accomplis dans l’éducation et la santé sont autant de facteurs d’accélération de la croissance qui créent d’énormes opportunités d’investissement, lesquelles entraînent à leur tour une modification de l’équilibre économique mondial en faveur des pays en développement.

À cela s’ajoute l’explosion démographique de la jeunesse, qui contribuera aussi à doper l’investissement. D’ici 2020, c’est-à-dire dans moins de sept ans, la croissance de la population mondiale en âge de travailler sera exclusivement déterminée par les pays en développement dont la population globale devrait s’accroître d’1,4 milliard d’individus d’ici 2030. Or tout le bénéfice de ce « dividende démographique » n’a pas encore été récolté, en particulier dans les régions relativement plus jeunes que sont l’Afrique subsaharienne et l’Asie du Sud.

Le rapport GDH envisage deux scénarios qui diffèrent par la vitesse de convergence entre les niveaux de revenu par habitant des pays développés et des pays en développement, et par le rythme des transformations structurelles des deux groupes (sur le plan du développement du secteur financier et de l’amélioration des institutions notamment). Le premier scénario prévoit une convergence progressive entre les pays développés et les pays en développement et le second une évolution nettement plus rapide.

Dans les deux hypothèses, à l’horizon 2030, les services représenteront plus de 60 % de l’emploi total dans les pays en développement et plus de 50 % du commerce mondial. Ce changement est lié à l’augmentation de la demande en services d’infrastructure induite par l’évolution démographique. Le rapport GDH chiffre d’ailleurs à 14 600 milliards de dollars les besoins de financement d’infrastructures du monde en développement d’ici 2030.

Le rapport souligne aussi le vieillissement des populations d’Asie de l’Est, d’Europe de l’Est et d’Asie centrale, régions dans lesquelles les taux d’épargne privée devraient afficher une baisse particulièrement marquée. L’évolution démographique mettra à l’épreuve la pérennité des finances publiques et les États devront résoudre des enjeux complexes afin de maîtriser la charge des soins de santé et des retraites sans imposer de trop grandes difficultés aux personnes âgées. L’Afrique subsaharienne qui a une population relativement jeune, en augmentation rapide, et qui connaît une solide croissance économique, sera la seule région à ne pas enregistrer de baisse du taux d’épargne.

Open Quotes

Les responsables politiques des pays en développement ont un rôle déterminant à jouer pour stimuler l’épargne privée par des mesures qui permettront d’élever le capital humain, en particulier pour les plus pauvres. Close Quotes

Maurizio Bussolo
Auteur principal du rapport, Global Development Horizons 2013

En termes absolus, l’épargne continuera néanmoins à être dominée par l’Asie et le Moyen-Orient. Selon le scénario de convergence progressive, en 2030, la Chine épargnera nettement plus que les autres pays en développement (9 000 milliards en dollars de 2010), suivie de loin par l’Inde (1 700 milliards), dépassant les niveaux d’épargne du Japon et des États-Unis dans les années 2020.

Selon le même scénario, à l’horizon 2030, la Chine représentera à elle seule 30 % des investissements mondiaux, tandis que le Brésil, l’Inde et la Russie y contribueront ensemble à hauteur de 13 %. En volume, les investissements atteindront 15 000 milliards (en dollars de 2010) dans les pays en développement contre 10 000 milliards pour les pays à revenu élevé. La Chine et l’Inde seront aussi en tête du classement des plus gros investisseurs du monde en développement, ces deux pays représentant ensemble 38 % des investissements bruts mondiaux en 2030 et près de la moitié des investissements mondiaux dans le secteur manufacturier.

« Le rapport GDH met clairement en évidence le rôle croissant des pays en développement dans l’économie mondiale, et c’est incontestablement une avancée significative », indique Maurizio Bussolo, économiste principal à la Banque mondiale et auteur principal du rapport, tout en soulignant que « cette meilleure répartition des richesses entre pays ne signifie pas que tous les habitants des différents pays en bénéficieront de manière égale ».

Selon le rapport, les groupes de population les moins instruits d’un pays, qui ont peu ou pas du tout d’épargne, se trouvent dans l’impossibilité d’améliorer leur capacité de gain et, pour les plus pauvres, d’échapper à l’engrenage de la pauvreté.

Et Maurizio Bussolo de conclure : « Les responsables politiques des pays en développement ont un rôle déterminant à jouer pour stimuler l’épargne privée par des mesures qui permettront d’élever le capital humain, en particulier pour les plus pauvres ».

Points marquants des différentes régions

L’Asie de l’Est et le Pacifique enregistreront une baisse de leur taux d’épargne et une chute encore plus forte de leur taux d’investissement, taux qui resteront toutefois élevés à l’échelle internationale. Malgré cette baisse des taux, la part de la région dans l’investissement et l’épargne continuera d’augmenter au plan mondial jusqu’en 2030 en raison d’une solide croissance économique. La région connaît un fort dividende démographique, avec moins de 4 personnes d’âge non actif pour 10 personnes d’âge actif, ce qui représente le plus faible taux de dépendance du monde. Ce dividende arrivera à son terme après avoir atteint un pic en 2015. La croissance de la population active ralentira ensuite et en 2040 la région pourrait afficher l’un des taux de dépendance les plus élevés de toutes les régions en développement (avec plus de 5,5 personnes d’âge non actif pour 10 personnes d’âge actif). La Chine, grand moteur de la région, devrait continuer à enregistrer d’importants excédents de la balance des opérations courantes, en raison de fortes baisses de son taux d’investissement liées à l’évolution du pays vers un système de plus faible engagement public dans les investissements.

 

L’Europe de l’Est et l’Asie centrale forment la région la plus avancée en termes de transition démographique, qui devrait être la seule du monde en développement à atteindre une croissance démographique nulle d’ici 2030. Ce vieillissement, qui devrait ralentir la croissance économique de la région, pourrait aussi entraîner une baisse du taux d’épargne plus forte que dans les autres régions en développement, à l’exception de l’Asie de l’Est. Le taux d’épargne pourrait ainsi descendre au-dessous du taux d’investissement, ce qui obligerait les pays de la région à attirer des flux de capitaux extérieurs pour financer leurs investissements. La région devra également faire face à une importante pression budgétaire due au vieillissement. La Turquie, par exemple, pourrait voir ses dépenses de retraites publiques augmenter de plus de 50 % d’ici 2030 en application du régime actuel. Plusieurs autres pays de la région seront aussi confrontés à d’importantes augmentations des dépenses de retraites et de santé.

 

L’Amérique latine et les Caraïbes forment une région où l’épargne est historiquement faible, qui pourrait afficher l’épargne la plus faible au monde en 2030. La démographie devrait certes y jouer un rôle positif (avec une baisse du taux de dépendance jusqu’en 2025) mais cet avantage sera probablement neutralisé par le développement du marché financier (qui réduit l’épargne de précaution) et une croissance économique modérée. De même, l’effet positif puis négatif de la démographie sur la croissance de la population active devrait d’abord entraîner une hausse du taux d’investissement à court terme puis une baisse progressive. Toutefois, la relation entre inégalité et épargne pourrait déboucher sur un autre scénario dans cette région. Comme ailleurs, les ménages les plus pauvres ont tendance à moins épargner ; l’amélioration des capacités de gain, l’augmentation des revenus et la réduction des inégalités pourraient donc doper l’épargne nationale et surtout contribuer à rompre le cercle vicieux de la pauvreté entretenu par le faible niveau d’épargne des ménages pauvres.

 

Le Moyen-Orient et l’Afrique du Nord disposent d’une importante marge de développement du marché financier, susceptible de soutenir l’investissement mais aussi, en raison du vieillissement de la population, de réduire l’épargne. De ce fait, les excédents de la balance des opérations courantes pourraient baisser modérément jusqu’en 2030, en fonction du rythme du développement du marché financier. Cette région est dans une phase de transition démographique relativement précoce qui se caractérise par une croissance encore rapide de la population générale et de la population active en même temps qu’une augmentation de la part des personnes âgées. Le changement de la structure des ménages pourrait aussi influencer les modèles d’épargne. Cette structure pourrait, en effet, évoluer d’une organisation intergénérationnelle, où la famille prend en charge les anciens, vers une structure composée de ménages plus petits avec une plus grande dépendance des personnes âgées vis-à-vis des revenus patrimoniaux. C’est dans cette région que les ménages à faible revenu recourent le moins aux institutions financières officielles pour épargner, d’où une marge importante de développement du rôle des marchés financiers dans l’épargne des ménages.

L’Asie du Sud restera l’une des régions où l’on épargne et investit le plus jusqu’en 2030. Toutefois, compte tenu des possibilités de progression rapide de la croissance économique et des marchés financiers, l’évolution de l’épargne, de l’investissement et des flux de capitaux peut varier considérablement : dans l’hypothèse d’une progression plus rapide de la croissance économique et des marchés financiers, les taux d’investissement resteront élevés tandis que l’épargne baissera considérablement, d’où d’importants déficits de la balance des opérations courantes. L’Asie du Sud est une région jeune qui, vers 2035, aura probablement le plus haut ratio au monde des personnes d’âge actif par rapport aux personnes d’âge non actif. Le phénomène général de déplacement des investissements vers le secteur manufacturier et le secteur des services aux dépens de l’agriculture devrait être particulièrement marqué en Asie du Sud ; la part de cette région dans les investissements globaux devrait ainsi presque doubler dans le secteur manufacturier et gagner au moins huit points de pourcentage dans le secteur des services, dépassant les deux tiers du total.

 

En Afrique subsaharienne, le taux d’investissement restera stable en raison d’une solide croissance de la population active. C’est la seule région qui n’enregistrera pas de baisse de son taux d’épargne dans l’hypothèse d’un développement modéré des marchés financiers, le vieillissement n’y étant pas un facteur significatif. Dans le scénario d’une croissance plus rapide, les pays africains plus pauvres connaîtront un développement plus marqué des marchés financiers et les investisseurs étrangers seront de plus en plus disposés à financer des investissements dans la région. L’Afrique subsaharienne est actuellement la région la plus jeune, qui affiche aussi le plus haut ratio de dépendance. Ce ratio enregistrera une baisse constante sur toute la période considérée et au-delà, entraînant un dividende démographique durable. C’est cette région qui aura les plus grands besoins d’investissement en infrastructures au cours des vingt prochaines années (en pourcentage du PIB). Dans le même temps, on observera probablement un changement dans le financement des investissements en infrastructures qui devrait être davantage ouvert au secteur privé, avec une augmentation substantielle des afflux de capitaux privés, venant notamment des autres régions en développement.

Source: WorldBank.org

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Developing World’s Share of Global Investment to Triple by 2030, Says New World Bank Report

Posted on 18 May 2013 by Africa Business

Seventeen years from now, half the global stock of capital, totaling $158 trillion (in 2010 dollars), will reside in the developing world, compared to less than one-third today, with countries in East Asia and Latin America accounting for the largest shares of this stock, says the latest edition of the World Bank’s Global Development Horizons (GDH) report, which explores patterns of investment, saving and capital flows as they are likely to evolve over the next two decades.

Developing countries’ share in global investment is projected to triple by 2030 to three-fifths, from one-fifth in 2000, says the report, titled ‘Capital for the Future: Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World’. With world population set to rise from 7 billion in 2010 to 8.5 billion 2030 and rapid aging in the advanced countries, demographic changes will profoundly influence these structural shifts.

“GDH is one of the finest efforts at peering into the distant future. It does this by marshaling an amazing amount of statistical information,” said Kaushik Basu, the World Bank’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “We know from the experience of countries as diverse as South Korea, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa the pivotal role investment plays in driving long-term growth. In less than a generation, global investment will be dominated by the developing countries. And among the developing countries, China and India are expected to be the largest investors, with the two countries together accounting for 38 percent of the global gross investment in 2030. All this will change the landscape of the global economy, and GDH analyzes how.”

Productivity catch-up, increasing integration into global markets, sound macroeconomic policies, and improved education and health are helping speed growth and create massive investment opportunities, which, in turn, are spurring a shift in global economic weight to developing countries. A further boost is being provided by the youth bulge. With developing countries on course to add more than 1.4 billion people to their combined population between now and 2030, the full benefit of the demographic dividend has yet to be reaped, particularly in the relatively younger regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

The good news is that, unlike in the past, developing countries will likely have the resources needed to finance these massive future investments for infrastructure and services, including in education and health care. Strong saving rates in developing countries are expected to peak at 34 percent of national income in 2014 and will average 32 percent annually until 2030. In aggregate terms, the developing world will account for 62-64 percent of global saving of $25-27 trillion by 2030, up from 45 percent in 2010.

“Despite strong saving levels to finance their massive investment needs in the future, developing countries will need to significantly improve their currently limited participation in international financial markets if they are to reap the benefits of the tectonic shifts taking place,” said Hans Timmer, Director of the Bank’s Development Prospects Group.

GDH paints two scenarios, based on the speed of convergence between the developed and developing worlds in per capita income levels, and the pace of structural transformations (such as financial development and improvements in institutional quality) in the two groups. Scenario one entails a gradual convergence between the developed and developing world while a much more rapid scenario is envisioned in the second.

The gradual and rapid scenarios predict average world economic growth of 2.6 percent and 3 percent per year, respectively, during the next two decades; the developing world’s growth will average an annual rate of 4.8 percent in the gradual convergence scenario and 5.5 percent in the rapid one.

In both scenarios, developing countries’ employment in services will account for more than 60 percent of their total employment by 2030 and they will account for more than 50 percent of global trade. This shift will occur alongside demographic changes that will increase demand for infrastructural services. Indeed, the report estimates the developing world’s infrastructure financing needs at $14.6 trillion between now and 2030.

The report also points to aging populations in East Asia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which will see the largest reductions in saving rates. Demographic change will test the sustainability of public finances and complex policy challenges will arise from efforts to reduce the burden of health care and pensions without imposing severe hardships on the old. In contrast, Sub-Saharan Africa, with its relatively young and rapidly growing population as well as robust economic growth, will be the only region not experiencing a decline in its saving rate.

In absolute terms, however, saving will continue to be dominated by Asia and the Middle East. In the gradual convergence scenario, in 2030, China will save far more than any other developing country — $9 trillion in 2010 dollars — with India a distant second with $1.7 trillion, surpassing the levels of Japan and the United States in the 2020s.

As a result, under the gradual convergence scenario, China will account for 30 percent of global investment in 2030, with Brazil, India and Russia together accounting for another 13 percent. In terms of volumes, investment in the developing world will reach $15 trillion (in 2010 dollars), versus $10 trillion in high-income economies. China and India will account for almost half of all global manufacturing investment.

“GDH clearly highlights the increasing role developing countries will play in the global economy. This is undoubtedly a significant achievement. However, even if wealth will be more evenly distributed across countries, this does not mean that, within countries, everyone will equally benefit,” said Maurizio Bussolo, Lead Economist and lead author of the report.

The report finds that the least educated groups in a country have low or no saving, suggesting an inability to improve their earning capacity and, for the poorest, to escape a poverty trap.

“Policy makers in developing countries have a central role to play in boosting private saving through policies that raise human capital, especially for the poor,” concluded Bussolo.

Regional Highlights:

East Asia and the Pacific will see its saving rate fall and its investment rate will drop by even more, though they will still be high by international standards. Despite these lower rates, the region’s shares of global investment and saving will rise through 2030 due to robust economic growth. The region is experiencing a big demographic dividend, with fewer than 4 non-working age people for every 10 working age people, the lowest dependency ratio in the world. This dividend will end after reaching its peak in 2015. Labor force growth will slow, and by 2040 the region may have one of the highest dependency ratios of all developing regions (with more than 5.5 non-working age people for every 10 working age people). China, a big regional driver, is expected to continue to run substantial current account surpluses, due to large declines in its investment rate as it transitions to a lower level of public involvement in investment.

Eastern Europe and Central Asia is the furthest along in its demographic transition, and will be the only developing region to reach zero population growth by 2030. Aging is expected to moderate economic growth in the region, and also has the potential to bring down the saving rate more than any developing region, apart from East Asia. The region’s saving rate may decline more than its investment rate, in which case countries in the region will have to finance investment by attracting more capital flows. The region will also face significant fiscal pressure from aging. Turkey, for example, would see its public pension spending increase by more than 50 percent by 2030 under the current pension scheme. Several other countries in the region will also face large increases in pension and health care expenditures.

Latin America and the Caribbean, a historically low-saving region, may become the lowest-saving region by 2030. Although demographics will play a positive role, as dependency ratios are projected to fall through 2025, financial market development (which reduces precautionary saving) and a moderation in economic growth will play a counterbalancing role. Similarly, the rising and then falling impact of demography on labor force growth means that the investment rate is expected to rise in the short run, and then gradually fall. However, the relationship between inequality and saving in the region suggests an alternative scenario. As in other regions, poorer households tend to save much less; thus, improvements in earning capacity, rising incomes, and reduced inequality have the potential not only to boost national saving but, more importantly, to break poverty traps perpetuated by low saving by poor households.

The Middle East and North Africa has significant scope for financial market development, which has the potential to sustain investment but also, along with aging, to reduce saving. Thus, current account surpluses may also decline moderately up to 2030, depending on the pace of financial market development. The region is in a relatively early phase of its demographic transition: characterized by a still fast growing population and labor force, but also a rising share of elderly. Changes in household structure may also impact saving patterns, with a transition from intergenerational households and family-based old age support to smaller households and greater reliance on asset income in old age. The region has the lowest use of formal financial institutions for saving by low-income households, and scope for financial markets to play a significantly greater role in household saving.

South Asia will remain one of the highest saving and highest investing regions until 2030. However, with the scope for rapid economic growth and financial development, results for saving, investment, and capital flows will vary significantly: in a scenario of more rapid economic growth and financial market development, high investment rates will be sustained while saving falls significantly, implying large current account deficits. South Asia is a young region, and by about 2035 is likely to have the highest ratio of working- to nonworking-age people of any region in the world. The general shift in investment away from agriculture towards manufacturing and service sectors is likely to be especially pronounced in South Asia, with the region’s share of total investment in manufacturing expected to nearly double, and investment in the service sector to increase by more than 8 percentage points, to over two-thirds of total investment.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s investment rate will be steady due to robust labor force growth. It will be the only region to not see a decrease in its saving rate in a scenario of moderate financial market development, since aging will not be a significant factor. In a scenario of faster growth, poorer African countries will experience deeper financial market development, and foreign investors will become increasingly willing to finance investment in the region. Sub-Saharan Africa is currently the youngest of all regions, with the highest dependency ratio. This ratio will steadily decrease throughout the time horizon of this report and beyond, bringing a long lasting demographic dividend. The region will have the greatest infrastructure investment needs over the next two decades (relative to GDP). At the same time, there will likely be a shift in infrastructure investment financing toward greater participation by the private sector, and substantial increases in private capital inflows, particularly from other developing regions.

Source: WorldBank.org

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Developing countries to dominate global saving and investment, but the poor will not necessarily share the benefits, says report

Posted on 18 May 2013 by Africa Business

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • Developing world’s share of global investment to triple by 2030
  • China, India will be developing world’s largest investors
  • Boost to education needed so poor can improve their well-being

In less than a generation, global saving and investment will be dominated by the developing world, says the just-released Global Development Horizons (GDH) report.

By 2030, half the global stock of capital, totaling $158 trillion (in 2010 dollars), will reside in the developing world, compared to less than one-third today, with countries in East Asia and Latin America accounting for the largest shares of this stock, says the report, which explores patterns of investment, saving and capital flows as they are likely to evolve over the next two decades.

Titled ‘Capital for the Future: Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World’, GDH projects developing countries’ share in global investment to triple by 2030 to three-fifths, from one-fifth in 2000.

Productivity catch-up, increasing integration into global markets, sound macroeconomic policies, and improved education and health are helping speed growth and create massive investment opportunities, which, in turn, are spurring a shift in global economic weight to developing countries.

A further boost is being provided by the youth bulge. By 2020, less than 7 years from now, growth in world’s working-age population will be exclusively determined by developing countries. With developing countries on course to add more than 1.4 billion people to their combined population between now and 2030, the full benefit of the demographic dividend has yet to be reaped, particularly in the relatively younger regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

GDH paints two scenarios, based on the speed of convergence between the developed and developing worlds in per capita income levels, and the pace of structural transformations (such as financial development and improvements in institutional quality) in the two groups. Scenario one entails a gradual convergence between the developed and developing world while a much more rapid one is envisioned in the second.

In both scenarios, developing countries’ employment in services will account for more than 60 percent of their total employment by 2030 and they will account for more than 50 percent of global trade. This shift will occur alongside demographic changes that will increase demand for infrastructural services. Indeed, the report estimates the developing world’s infrastructure financing needs at $14.6 trillion between now and 2030.

The report also points to aging populations in East Asia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which will see the largest reductions in private saving rates. Demographic change will test the sustainability of public finances and complex policy challenges will arise from efforts to reduce the burden of health care and pensions without imposing severe hardships on the old. In contrast, Sub-Saharan Africa, with its relatively young and rapidly growing population as well as robust economic growth, will be the only region not experiencing a decline in its saving rate.

Open Quotes

Policy makers in developing countries have a central role to play in boosting private saving through policies that raise human capital, especially for the poor. Close Quotes

Maurizio Bussolo
Lead Author, Global Development Horizons 2013

In absolute terms, however, saving will continue to be dominated by Asia and the Middle East. In the gradual convergence scenario, in 2030, China will save far more than any other developing country — $9 trillion in 2010 dollars — with India a distant second with $1.7 trillion, surpassing the levels of Japan and the United States in the 2020s.

As a result, under the gradual convergence scenario, China will account for 30 percent of global investment in 2030, with Brazil, India and Russia together accounting for another 13 percent. In terms of volumes, investment in the developing world will reach $15 trillion (in 2010 dollars), versus $10 trillion in high-income economies. Again, China and India will be the largest investors among developing countries, with the two countries combined representing 38 percent of the global gross investment in 2030, and they will account for almost half of all global manufacturing investment.

“GDH clearly highlights the increasing role developing countries will play in the global economy. This is undoubtedly a significant achievement. However, even if wealth will be more evenly distributed across countries, this does not mean that, within countries, everyone will equally benefit,” said Maurizio Bussolo, Lead Economist and lead author of the report.

The report finds that the least educated groups in a country have low or no saving, suggesting an inability to improve their earning capacity and, for the poorest, to escape a poverty trap.

“Policy makers in developing countries have a central role to play in boosting private saving through policies that raise human capital, especially for the poor,” concluded Bussolo.

Regional Highlights:

East Asia and the Pacific will see its saving rate fall and its investment rate will drop by even more, though they will still be high by international standards. Despite these lower rates, the region’s shares of global investment and saving will rise through 2030 due to robust economic growth. The region is experiencing a big demographic dividend, with fewer than 4 non-working age people for every 10 working age people, the lowest dependency ratio in the world. This dividend will end after reaching its peak in 2015. Labor force growth will slow, and by 2040 the region may have one of the highest dependency ratios of all developing regions (with more than 5.5 non-working age people for every 10 working age people). China, a big regional driver, is expected to continue to run substantial current account surpluses, due to large declines in its investment rate as it transitions to a lower level of public involvement in investment.

Eastern Europe and Central Asia is the furthest along in its demographic transition, and will be the only developing region to reach zero population growth by 2030. Aging is expected to moderate economic growth in the region, and also has the potential to bring down the saving rate more than any developing region, apart from East Asia. The region’s saving rate may decline more than its investment rate, in which case countries in the region will have to finance investment by attracting more capital flows. The region will also face significant fiscal pressure from aging. Turkey, for example, would see its public pension spending increase by more than 50 percent by 2030 under the current pension scheme. Several other countries in the region will also face large increases in pension and health care expenditures.

Latin America and the Caribbean, a historically low-saving region, may become the lowest-saving region by 2030. Although demographics will play a positive role, as dependency ratios are projected to fall through 2025, financial market development (which reduces precautionary saving) and a moderation in economic growth will play a counterbalancing role. Similarly, the rising and then falling impact of demography on labor force growth means that the investment rate is expected to rise in the short run, and then gradually fall. However, the relationship between inequality and saving in the region suggests an alternative scenario. As in other regions, poorer households tend to save much less; thus, improvements in earning capacity, rising incomes, and reduced inequality have the potential not only to boost national saving but, more importantly, to break poverty traps perpetuated by low saving by poor households.

The Middle East and North Africa has significant scope for financial market development, which has the potential to sustain investment but also, along with aging, to reduce saving. Thus, current account surpluses may also decline moderately up to 2030, depending on the pace of financial market development. The region is in a relatively early phase of its demographic transition: characterized by a still fast growing population and labor force, but also a rising share of elderly. Changes in household structure may also impact saving patterns, with a transition from intergenerational households and family-based old age support to smaller households and greater reliance on asset income in old age. The region has the lowest use of formal financial institutions for saving by low-income households, and scope for financial markets to play a significantly greater role in household saving.

South Asia will remain one of the highest saving and highest investing regions until 2030. However, with the scope for rapid economic growth and financial development, results for saving, investment, and capital flows will vary significantly: in a scenario of more rapid economic growth and financial market development, high investment rates will be sustained while saving falls significantly, implying large current account deficits. South Asia is a young region, and by about 2035 is likely to have the highest ratio of working- to nonworking-age people of any region in the world. The general shift in investment away from agriculture towards manufacturing and service sectors is likely to be especially pronounced in South Asia, with the region’s share of total investment in manufacturing expected to nearly double, and investment in the service sector to increase by more than 8 percentage points, to over two-thirds of total investment.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s investment rate will be steady due to robust labor force growth. It will be the only region to not see a decrease in its saving rate in a scenario of moderate financial market development, since aging will not be a significant factor. In a scenario of faster growth, poorer African countries will experience deeper financial market development, and foreign investors will become increasingly willing to finance investment in the region. Sub-Saharan Africa is currently the youngest of all regions, with the highest dependency ratio. This ratio will steadily decrease throughout the time horizon of this report and beyond, bringing a long lasting demographic dividend. The region will have the greatest infrastructure investment needs over the next two decades (relative to GDP). At the same time, there will likely be a shift in infrastructure investment financing toward greater participation by the private sector, and substantial increases in private capital inflows, particularly from other developing regions.

 

Source: WorldBank.org

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Oando Energy Resources Announces Additional 2,500 bopd Production Capacity From Ebendo Field

Posted on 16 May 2013 by Africa Business

About Oando Energy Resources Inc. (OER)

OER currently has a broad suite of producing, development and exploration properties in the Gulf of Guinea (predominantly in Nigeria) with current production of approximately 5,205 bopd from the Abo Field in OML 125 and the Ebendo Field. OER has been specifically structured to take advantage of current opportunities for indigenous companies in Nigeria, which currently has the largest population in Africa, and one of the largest oil and gas resources in Africa.

 

Oando Energy Resources Inc. (“OER” or the “Company“) (TSX: OER), a company focused on oil exploration and production in Nigeria, today announced results from the successful completion and testing of the Ebendo 5 well. The completion and testing of the Ebendo 5 well, which is expected to contribute an additional 2,500 barrels of oil per day (“bopd”) gross (1,069 bopd net to OER), follows the successful resumption of 3,200 bopd gross (1,368 bopd net to OER) production on the Ebendo field, as was announced on April 24, 2013.

“We’re extremely pleased to announce the successful completion of the Ebendo 5 well drilling programme, increasing our net capacity by 1,069 bopd,” said Pade Durotoye , CEO of OER. “Ebendo currently has a total production capacity of up to 7,000 bopd, but is currently subject to takeaway capacity restrictions as a result of the Kwale-Akri pipeline. In light of this, we are increasing our efforts to establish our alternative evacuation pipeline, the 53 Kilometer, 45kboepd Umugini pipeline, that will further support the development of this field and reduce our dependence on one evacuation pipeline.”

The Ebendo 5 well was spudded as a deviated appraisal/development well on October 12, 2012, mainly to appraise the intermediate reservoirs encountered by the earlier Ebendo 4 well. The Ebendo 5 well was drilled to a total vertical depth (TVD) of 11,513ft and encountered eight hydrocarbon bearing sands. A drill stem test was successfully completed on two of these sands (XVIIIc and XVIIId). Sand XVIIId flowed for 18 hours and 30 minutes during the final flow test on four choke sizes. On average, it flowed on choke 28/64″ for 3 hours and 30 minutes, with an average oil and gas rate of 1,592 bopd and 2.45 mmscf/day, respectively. Sand XVIIIc flowed for 15 hours and 50 minutes during the final flow test on three choke sizes. On average, it flowed on choke 24/64″ for 8 hours and 23 minutes, with an average oil and gas rate of 840 bopd and 4.62 mmscf/day, respectively. Oil with API gravities of 47.2 degrees and 46.4 degrees were recovered from levels XVIIIc and XVIIId, respectively. Testing of sand XV is planned to occur during production, as there was a mechanical failure during testing of this sand after the completion of the well. However, from Modular Formation Dynamic Testing (MDT) pressure sampling, the fluid gradient in level XV was 0.272 pressure per foot (psi/ft), which is indicative of oil, there was no appreciable steady decline in the pressures during the Test.

The Ebendo 5 well was dually completed and sand XV will be produced through the short string while sands XVIIIc and XVIIId will be produced through the long string via a sliding sleeve. The Acme Rig-5 was released on April 17, 2013 from the Ebendo 5 well site.

The Company further announced that a new rig, the Deutag T-26, has been mobilised and a sixth well (the Ebendo 6 well) was spudded on April 18, 2013. TVD for the Ebendo 6 well is planned to be at 10,680 ft. To date, the Ebendo 6 well has been drilled to a total vertical depth of 6,231 ft. The results from this drilling programme will enable further appraisal of the shallow reservoirs encountered in the last two wells.

As pressure transient analysis or well-test interpretation has not been carried out, all results disclosed in this press release should be regarded as preliminary and are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or ultimate recovery. The results will be updated when additional data becomes available.

 

SOURCE Oando Energy Resources Inc.

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GSMA Establishes Office In Nairobi To Support Burgeoning African Telecoms Market

Posted on 15 May 2013 by Africa Business

Mobile Connections in Sub-Saharan Africa Increase 20 Per Cent to 500 Million in 2013 and Are Expected to Increase by an Additional 50 Per Cent by 2018

iHub is Nairobi‘s Innovation Hub for the technology community, which is an open space for the technologists, investors, tech companies and hackers in the area. This space is a tech community facility with a focus on young entrepreneurs, web and mobile phone programmers, designers and researchers. It is part open community workspace (co-working), part vector for investors and VCs and part incubator. More information can be found here: http://www.ihub.co.ke/about

About the GSMA
The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide. Spanning more than 220 countries, the GSMA unites nearly 800 of the world’s mobile operators with more than 230 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset makers, software companies, equipment providers and Internet companies, as well as organisations in industry sectors such as financial services, healthcare, media, transport and utilities. The GSMA also produces industry-leading events such as the Mobile World Congress and Mobile Asia Expo.


NAIROBI, Kenya, May 15, 2013 /PRNewswire/ – The GSMA today announced that it has opened a permanent office in Nairobi, Kenya. The office will be based in the heart of Nairobi‘s Innovation Hub (iHub) for the technology community and will enable the GSMA to work even more closely with its members and other industry stakeholders to extend the reach and socio-economic benefits of mobile throughout Africa.

“It is an exciting time to launch our new office in Africa, as the region is an increasingly vibrant and critical market for the mobile industry, representing over 10 per cent of the global market,” said Anne Bouverot , Director General, GSMA. “The rapid pace of mobile adoption has delivered an explosion of innovation and huge economic benefits in the region, directly contributing US$ 32 billion to the Sub-Saharan African economy, or 4.4 per cent of GDP. With necessary spectrum allocations and transparent regulation, the mobile industry could also fuel the creation of 14.9 million new jobs in the region between 2015 and 2020.”

According to the latest GSMA’s Wireless Intelligence data, total mobile connections in Sub-Saharan Africa passed the 500 million mark in Q1 2013, increasing by about 20 per cent year-on-year. Connections are expected to grow by a further 50 per cent, or 250 million connections, over the next five years which requires greater regulatory certainty to foster investment and release of additional harmonised spectrum for mobile.

The region currently accounts for about two-thirds of connections in Africa but the amount of spectrum allocated to mobile services in Africa is among the lowest worldwide. Governments in Sub-Saharan Africa risk undermining their broadband and development goals unless more spectrum is made available. In particular, the release of the Digital Dividend spectrum – which has the ideal characteristics for delivering mobile broadband, particularly to rural populations – should be a priority.

The region also has some of the highest levels of mobile internet usage globally. In Zimbabwe and Nigeria, mobile accounts for over half of all web traffic at 58.1 per cent and 57.9 per cent respectively, compared to a 10 per cent global average. 3G penetration levels are forecast to reach a quarter of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2017 (from six per cent in 2012) as the use of mobile-specific services develops.

However, despite the high number of connections, rapid growth and mobile internet usage, mobile penetration among individuals remains relatively low. Fewer than 250 million people had subscribed to a mobile service in the region, putting unique subscriber penetration at 30 per cent, meaning that more than two-thirds of the population have yet to acquire their first mobile phone. Clearly, there is an important opportunity for the mobile industry to bring connectivity, access to information and services to the people in this region.

The mobile industry contributes approximately 3.5 million full-time jobs in the region. This has also spurred a wave of technology and content innovation with more than 50 ‘innovation hubs’ created to develop local skills and content in the field of ICT services, including the Limbe Labs in Cameroon, the iHub in Kenya and Hive Colab in Uganda.

Of particular note is the role of Kenya as the global leader in mobile money transfer services via M-PESA, a service launched by the country’s largest mobile operator Safaricom in 2007. What started as a simple way to extend banking services to the unbanked citizens of Kenya has now evolved into a mobile payment system based on accounts held by the operator, with transactions authorised and recorded in real time using secure SMS. Since its launch, M-PESA has grown to reach 15 million registered users and contributes 18 per cent of Safaricom’s total revenue.

To support this huge increase in innovation, the mobile industry has invested around US$ 16.5 billion over the past five years (US$ 2.8 billion in 2011 alone) across the five key countries in the region, mainly directed towards the expansion of network capacity. At the same time, given the exponential growth, Sub-Saharan Africa faces a looming ‘capacity and coverage crunch’ in terms of available mobile spectrum and the GSMA is working with operators and governments to address this critical issue.

GSMA research has found that by releasing the Digital Dividend and 2.6GHz spectrum by 2015, the governments of Sub-Saharan Africa could increase annual GDP by US$82 billion by 2025 and annual government tax revenues by US$18 billion and add up to 27 million jobs by 2025. In many Sub-Saharan African countries, mobile broadband is the only possible route to deliver the Internet to citizens and the current spectrum allocations across the region generally lag behind those of other countries.

“A positive and supportive regulatory environment and sufficient spectrum allocation is critical to the further growth of mobile in Africa,” continued Ms. Bouverot. “I am confident that now that we have a physical presence in Africa, we will be able to work together with our members to put the conditions in place that will facilitate the expansion of mobile, bringing important connectivity and services to all in the region.”

For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate website at www.gsma.com or Mobile World Live, the online portal for the mobile communications industry, at www.mobileworldlive.com.

SOURCE GSMA

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CHINA, AFRICA EXPLORE NEW OPPORTUNITIES TO COOPERATE ON HEALTH CHALLENGES, STRENGTHEN INNOVATIONS

Posted on 13 May 2013 by Amat JENG

Chinese and African leaders will come together at the 4th International Roundtable on China-Africa Health Cooperation to explore new partnerships to address some of the most pressing health challenges facing Africa and strengthen an innovative health partnership based on south-south cooperation. This year’s roundtable is the first to take place on the African continent. It will focus on promoting sustainable health solutions that meet the needs and priorities of African countries and draw on China’s unique expertise.

Officials will engage in two days of sessions aimed at determining how China and African countries can jointly tackle critical issues such as AIDS, malaria, schistosomiasis, reproductive health, access to lifesaving vaccines and non-communicable diseases. These health issues disproportionately affect African countries and have also been major health challenges for China. At the roundtable, China’s Director General of the National Health and Family Planning Commission will join Health Ministers from Botswana and Ghana; leaders from the African Union; representatives from the United Nations and non-governmental organizations; and entrepreneurs and business owners from China and Africa.

“Indeed, China and Africa have a long history of collaborating on health, built on shared challenges, experiences and addressing similar issues,” said Hon. Rev. Dr. John G. N. Seakgosing, Botswana’s Minister of Health. “China has a unique role in supporting African health progress. And with this roundtable, we look forward to deepening our partnership to benefit the health of our citizens.”

This roundtable comes as China and Africa mark the 50th anniversary of providing medical teams to Africa, with China also supporting African health personnel, infrastructure, malaria control and other programs such as scholarships for training health experts. At this year’s roundtable, officials will discuss how to shape health cooperation between China and Africa and help achieve long-term, sustainable gains, such as strengthening health systems and addressing the shortage of healthcare workers.

“Africa’s future is closely linked with our own and improving health is a critical building block towards a common prosperity,” said Dr. Ren Minghui, Director General of the Department of International Cooperation at China’s National Health and Family Planning Commission. “African countries have made tremendous gains to improve the health of their citizens. With China and Africa working hand-in-hand on health, we can have even greater impact.”

A major theme of the roundtable is how African and Chinese officials can create win-win scenarios that will benefit all partners. Much of China’s health assistance invests in expanding African capacity, which can help strengthen the continent’s self-sufficiency and economic development. China has a unique role in supporting Africa’s health progress, drawing from its investments in health research and development and its experience improving the health of its own citizens, such as its current health reform effort, which is the largest expansion of healthcare coverage in history.

When other countries send weapons to Africa, China sends water. China is gaining reputation for helping African countries develop

Roundtable participants will discuss how African countries can best work with Chinese scientists and pharmaceutical manufacturers to increase access to high-quality, low-cost health technologies, while ensuring products are safe and meet international quality standards. Participants will also explore how China can help support Africa’s local production of health products. At the same time, African leaders will share expertise on areas where China can learn from Africa, such as around AIDS prevention and treatment, to help improve China’s efforts at home. Africa has been very successful in scaling up HIV treatment as well as prevention of mother-to-child transmission programs.

“South-South cooperation facilitates optimization of resources, both human and material. This creates opportunities to share knowledge and experience, which contributes to sustainable health solutions,” said H.E. Dr. Mustapha Sidiki Kaloko, Commissioner of Social Affairs of the African Union. “China-Africa health partnership is based on a sense of shared responsibility and global solidarity in responding to health challenges.”

The roundtable comes as China and other emerging economies are bringing new resources and approaches to improve the health of people around the world. “The global health landscape is changing, with more partners than ever joining these efforts,” said Dr. Luiz Loures, Deputy Executive Director of Programme of UNAIDS. “The AIDS response and other experiences paved the way for transformative progress on health and can help China and Africa engage on a whole new level and innovate on a broad range of health issues.”

The roundtable sessions will be guided by discussion papers that draw on extensive research and discussion developed by the China-Africa Health Cooperation Taskforce, comprised of members of the Chinese government and leading technical institutions, with the support of international partners including the World Health Organization, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), UNAIDS, PATH, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Global Health Strategies Initiatives (GHSi) and other organizations.

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The papers propose pilot projects for China-Africa collaboration in areas such as strengthening laboratory systems; establishing national control systems for malaria and schistosomiasis; transferring ARV drug manufacturing technology and technical support for local production; training African health personnel; and sharing China’s expertise in cold chain management and surveillance systems to boost immunization coverage. Sessions will also address ways to ensure transparency in these efforts and to guarantee high quality products.

“China has tremendous potential to support Africa’s long-term development by leveraging innovation. The roundtable is an opportunity to define a path for China and Africa to make a positive impact together on health,” said Dr. Ray Yip, Director of the China Program of the Gates Foundation.
One aim of the roundtable is to develop joint recommendations that could lay the groundwork for a long-term strategic plan for China-Africa health cooperation, which could be considered at the Ministerial Forum of China-Africa Health Development, part of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), which will take place in August in Beijing.

This year’s roundtable is hosted by the Botswana Ministry of Health, the China Chamber of Commerce of the Ministry of Commerce and the Institute for Global Health of Peking University. The roundtable series, organized by the Institute for Global Health and the China Institute of International Studies, began in 2009 as part of a China-led initiative to evaluate and improve its foreign assistance.

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“Currently Africa represents only 3% of global electrical consumption, but by 2020 electrical consumption in Africa will have increased by 60%.”

Posted on 10 May 2013 by Africa Business

Exclusive interview with Rick St. John, Regional Director South Africa Region, Lucy Switchgear – a long-time supporter of African Utility Week and a silver sponsor at this year’s event.

Q. What are you most excited about currently in terms of Lucy Switchgear products and solutions?
A. This year we plan to launch a new generation of ring main units at the exhibition, to add to our large range of ground mounted and pole mounted switchgear for the secondary power distribution market.

Specifically designed to comply with South African requirements, the new Aegis 24Kv secondary distribution ring main units have vacuum circuit breakers insulated with SF6 gas in a hermetically sealed, stainless steel tank, ensuring reliability, safety and virtually maintenance-free operation. The range can be fitted with electronic relays or (TLF) time limit fuses for protection and each unit can be tailored with a number of options according to customers’ needs.

With the addition of our automation solutions, which provide a range of automation building blocks, from retro-fit equipment to a complete turnkey solution, the company is ready to meet the diverse and ever growing needs of the South African power distribution market.

Q. What is on the calendar for Lucy Switchgear in 2013?
A. We are developing a number of exciting products, which use cutting edge technology, to grow our product ranges in ring main units, overhead distribution switchgear, remote terminal units (RTU) for remote operation and control and SCADA automation software, to meet the changing needs of the global marketplace.

We are also expanding our training and consultancy offering to support companies during project planning and implementation, and offer dedicated after sales support throughout the product lifecycle.

Q. What opportunities do you see in Africa?
A. Currently Africa represents only 3% of global electrical consumption, but by 2020 electrical consumption in Africa will have increased by 60%. Increases in population density in cities and developments in infrastructure and industries will drive demand for electric power. This will represent a huge opportunity for companies that provide products and services to the electrical distribution and supply industry and we anticipate a significant increase in the demand for switchgear products.

Q. What do you think makes Lucy Switchgear competitive in this market?
A. Lucy Switchgear is a global leader in medium voltage, secondary distribution solutions, with over 100 years’ industry experience in engineering brilliant solutions for our customers. We design cost effective, safe and reliable products and solutions which meet our customers’ requirements.

Our global presence means we are able to support customers in markets across the world but alongside this we have also maintained our flexibility to work with customers, listening and responding to their needs. Our highly skilled engineers can customise products using cutting edge technology and our consultants can provide advice and support before during and after projects.

Q. What do you think are the biggest challenges to the South African/African energy/water market?
A As with most African countries, a shortfall of electrical generation capacity due to lack of investment is delaying the growth of markets.

Q. Why did you decide to become a sponsor of African Utility Week?
A. African Utility Week is the largest conference in Africa with most countries sending delegates, therefore being a sponsor is essential for exposure to the Electrical Utility companies attending.

We see Africa as a key growth market for Lucy Switchgear and we are committed to developing our business in the region. We are investing in new products that meet the specific needs of the marketplace and expanding our consultancy offering to support companies during project planning and implementation. We also offer training from our experienced technicians and dedicated after sales support throughout the product lifecycle.

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“African countries are increasingly focused on the potential renewable energy offers to their economies.”

Posted on 09 May 2013 by Africa Business

Exclusive interview with Dr. Nawal Al-Hosany, Director of Zayed Future Energy Prize, gold sponsors at the upcoming Clean Power Africa.



1) Can you give us some background on the Zayed Future Energy Prize?

The annual US$4 Zayed Future Energy Prize embodies the vision of the late founding father of the UAE, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan who laid the foundation for environmental, economic and social sustainability of the UAE. An annual award, the Prize is managed by Masdar, on behalf of the Abu Dhabi government and seeks to award achievements and innovation in the fields of renewable energy and sustainability, as well as to educate and inspire future generations.

The prize recognises individuals, companies and schools making a significant impact in the fields of renewable energy and sustainability. For more information on the prize, please visit www.ZayedFutureEnergyPrize.com

2) What are you most excited about currently in terms of Zayed Future Energy Prize projects?

The annual US$4 million Zayed Future Energy Prize is fast creating that much needed ripple effect around the world, from China to Mexico and from Germany to Tanzania. Over the past five years, the Prize has continued to award and reward the innovators of our time and we are excited about the impact of the Prize and how it is enabling the world to address our collective future energy challenges.

3) What opportunities do you see in Africa?
African countries are increasingly focused on the potential renewable energy offers to their economies. Egypt, Ghana, Madagascar and South Africa respectively have set ambitious renewable energy targets of 20%, 10%, 75% and 13% of national electricity production by 2020. Africa’s hydropower potential is estimated at around 1,750 TWh and its geothermal energy potential is estimated at 9,000 MW. Over 80% of the continent receives about 2,000 kWH per square metre of solar resources per annum.


Africa represents an important constituency for the Prize. Although some 90% of sub-Saharan Africans living in rural areas lack access to electricity, the continent is blessed with extensive renewable resources. We want to encourage governments, businesses, and civil society to spur economic growth and job creation through renewable energy targets.

4) What do you think are the biggest challenges to the South African / African energy market?

Africa’s population is expected to double by 2050, with a seven-fold increase in GDP if current trends are maintained. In order to provide universal access to electricity and sustain these growth rates, total energy production must double by 2030 from current levels, according to a recent report published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Electricity still remains the only sure route to economic growth.

While some 99% of North Africans have access to electricity, only 77% of people in South Africa do. This figure drops to 29% for sub-Saharan populations outside South Africa, according to IRENA.

5) What surprises you about this industry?
Zayed Future Energy Prize has been more delighted than surprised at the submissions and nominations increase of approximately 300 percent over the past five years and we see it as recognition of the value of the Prize.

Our previous winners have collectively reduced the plight of 140,000 displaced persons, provided hundreds of thousands of jobs and provided clean water and electricity to over 8 million people in villages and rural parts of Africa and Asia.

We encourage companies, individuals and schools from across the world to join us in solving the energy challenge and participate by submitting their applications before August 5.

6) Why did you decide to sponsor at Clean Power Africa?
Zayed Future Energy Prize is sponsoring African Utility Week and Clean Power Africa in Cape Town because Africa represents an important constituency for the Prize. I am delivering a presentation on the Zayed Future Energy Prize and will be emphasizing the benefits renewable energy can bring to African countries looking to sustain and broaden economic growth.

7) What will be the main message for the event delegate and visitor?

The Zayed Future Energy Prize will be emphasizing the benefits of renewable energy and what it can bring to African countries looking to sustain and broaden economic growth. The Prize administration will also, naturally, encourage companies, schools and individuals from Africa to submit for the Prize.

8 ) Point to ponder

The time is right for massive investment in renewable energy across the African continent. Renewable energy technologies represented the most cost-effective solution for remote, off-grid areas and for extending electrification grids. Costs of solar photovoltaic have fallen by over 80% over the last two years to less than one US dollar per watt, with further price drops expected.

Renewable energy brings multiple benefits, including increased energy security, job creation, rural development and technological development.

We should not forget that access to energy is particularly important for women, who have traditionally borne the burden of fetching water and cooking over open fires, with attendant respiratory health impacts and fire hazards associated with dirty fuels. The daily lives of these women and their families, is made immeasurably better if they can access clean energy for household needs. These are compelling benefits. I call upon leaders in renewable energy and sustainability in Africa to step forward for nomination this year as the benefits of renewable energy cannot be ignored.

About the Zayed Future Energy Prize: The Zayed Future Energy Prize embodies the vision of the late founding father of the UAE, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan who laid the foundation for renewable energy and sustainability as part of his legacy in sustainable development in the UAE. An annual award, the Prize is managed by Masdar, on behalf of the Abu Dhabi government and seeks to award achievements and innovation in the fields of renewable energy and sustainability, as well as to educate and inspire future generations.

For more information on the prize, please visit www.ZayedFutureEnergyPrize.com or email Serene Serhan at sserhan@masdar.ae

More information can be found on http://www.facebook.com/TZFEP or Twitter: http://twitter.com/zfep

· YouTube video about last year’s winners: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mwf2VxivHY4

· Frequently asked questions (FAQ): https://www.zayedfutureenergyprize.com/en/application-process/faq/

· A brochure with further details is available at: https://www.zayedfutureenergyprize.com/resources/media/9185ZFEPHighSchoolFlyerFINAL.pdf

Submission process video tutorial: https://www.zayedfutureenergyprize.com/en/application-process/submission-process-video-tutorial/

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Time for “Dark Continent” to invest in renewable energy

Posted on 09 May 2013 by Africa Business

By Dr Nawal Al-Hosany

Dr Al-Hosany is director of the Zayed Future Energy Prize and the Director of Sustainability at Masdar

In her role as the Director of Sustainability at Masdar; Dr Nawal Al-Hosany leads a team responsible for developing Masdar’s sustainability standards and policies. She is also mandated to oversee the processes of sustainability auditing, monitoring and reporting.

In 2011, Dr Al-Hosany further assumed the post of Director of the Zayed Future Energy Prize; where she oversees the implementation of the objectives, mandate and strategic direction of the prize.

Dr-Al Hosany is a board member of Masdar Investment LLC and of the Emirates Authority for Standardization and Meteorology. She is also an Adjunct Professor at the Masdar Institute of Science and Technology.

In her commitment to remain at the forefront of the social science and sustainable development landscape, she has participated in numerous continuing professional development courses and continually seeks opportunities to stay updated on latest project management methods, as well as leadership, planning and decision-support mechanisms.

Dr Al-Hosany has been published globally in international journals and newspapers, including the International Journal of Management of Environmental Quality, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Renewable Energy, and International Journal of Renewable Energy Engineering.

Throughout her career, Dr Al-Hosany has been an active member of various boards in the UAE and around the world including the Advisory Panel for the Momentum for Change initiative of the UNFCCC, the Troika Plus of Women Leaders on Gender and Climate Change; the Climate Justice Dialogue Advisory Committee (an initiative of the World Research Foundation), and the Energy Efficiency Global Forum.

Dr Al-Hosany has also served as Sherpa to the UN Secretary General High Level Group for ‘The Sustainable Energy For all’ initiative for its Principle; HE Dr Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Chief Executive Officer of Masdar.

In 2011, Abu Dhabi Magazine cited Dr.Al-Hosany as one of the 40 most influential Emiratis who have helped shape the emirate. She has also received several medals and accolades for her professional achievements, including a Chevening Fellowship from the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the Emirates Business Women Award in the Professional and Career Achievements category.

Prior to assuming her current roles, Dr Al-Hosany held senior leadership positions with the General Headquarters of the Abu Dhabi Police, including Head of Design and Studies in the Engineering Department. In 2007, she became the first-ever female Deputy Director in the Abu Dhabi Police.

Dr Al-Hosany graduated from the Faculty of Engineering at the UAE University and obtained her PhD from Newcastle University in the UK. She is also credited as one of the first two Emirati women to climb Mt. Kilimanjaro, the highest free-standing mountain in the world at 5,895 meters above sea level.

 

About the Zayed Future Energy Prize: The Zayed Future Energy Prize embodies the vision of the late founding father of the UAE, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan who laid the foundation for renewable energy and sustainability as part of his legacy in sustainable development in the UAE. An annual award, the Prize is managed by Masdar, on behalf of the Abu Dhabi government and seeks to award achievements and innovation in the fields of renewable energy and sustainability, as well as to educate and inspire future generations.


Most of us are familiar with the satellite image of the world at night, showing Europe and parts of Asia ablaze with light. But despite its enormous size, larger than both China and the United States combined, Africa remains dark, with only a few pinpricks of light here and there.

Africa’s economies have shrugged off a global slowdown to record average growth of almost five percent. After ten years of high growth, 22 out of 48 countries have officially achieved middle-income status, defined by the World Bank as having per-capita income in excess of US$1 000. The combined population of these countries is 400 million people. Another ten states, representing 200 million people, could reach this landmark by 2025, the World Bank said. Africa’s population is expected to double by 2050, with a seven-fold increase in GDP if current trends are maintained. In order to provide universal access to electricity and sustain these growth rates, total energy production must double by 2030 from current levels, according to a recent report published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Electricity still remains the only sure route to economic growth.

While some 99% of north Africans have access to electricity, only 77% of people in South Africa do. This figure drops to 29% for sub-Saharan populations outside South Africa, according to IRENA.

Like many other observers, including myself, IRENA believes the time is right for massive investment in renewable energy across the continent. “Africa has the opportunity to leapfrog to modern renewable energy,” IRENA said, noting that renewable energy technologies represented the most cost-effective solution for remote, off-grid areas and for extending electrification grids. Costs of solar photovoltaic have fallen by over 80% over the last two years to less than one US dollar per watt, with further price drops expected.

Renewable energy brings multiple benefits, including increased energy security, job creation, rural development and technological development. Finally, we should not forget that access to energy is particularly important for women, who have traditionally borne the burden of fetching water and cooking over open fires, with attendant respiratory health impacts and fire hazards associated with dirty fuels. The daily lives of these women, and their families, is made immeasurably better if they can access clean energy for household needs.

These are compelling benefits. In my work with the Zayed Future Energy Prize, which recognises and rewards leadership in five categories, I have been privileged to interact with renewable energy pioneers on several continents. Their creativity, persistence and leadership has led to their discovery of innovative solutions tailored for local conditions in business, non-profit and education. Interest has grown steadily over the past five years, with a record 579 nominations received from 88 countries last year – a 36% increase. I call upon leaders in renewable energy and sustainability in Africa to step forward for nomination this year, as with their help, we can finally put to rest the cliché of the dark continent.

For more information on the prize, please visit www.ZayedFutureEnergyPrize.com or email Serene Serhan at sserhan@masdar.ae


· YouTube video about last year’s winners: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mwf2VxivHY4

· Frequently asked questions (FAQ): https://www.zayedfutureenergyprize.com/en/application-process/faq/

· A brochure with further details is available at: https://www.zayedfutureenergyprize.com/resources/media/9185ZFEPHighSchoolFlyerFINAL.pdf

· Submission process video tutorial: https://www.zayedfutureenergyprize.com/en/application-process/submission-process-video-tutorial/

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