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Un nouveau rapport de la Banque mondiale prévoit un triplement de la part des pays en développement dans les investissements mondiaux d’ici 2030

Posted on 20 May 2013 by Africa Business

D’ici dix-sept ans, les pays en développement, et principalement ceux d’Asie de l’Est et d’Amérique latine, abriteront la moitié des capitaux mondiaux — soit 158 000 milliards de dollars (en dollars de 2010) — contre un tiers seulement aujourd’hui. C’est ce que prévoit la dernière édition des Global Development Horizons (GDH) de la Banque mondiale, un rapport qui étudie l’évolution probable des tendances en matière d’investissement, d’épargne et de mouvement de capitaux sur les vingt prochaines années.

Selon cette nouvelle publication intitulée Capital for the Future: Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World (« Les capitaux de demain : épargne et investissement dans un monde interdépendant »), les pays en développement, qui ne représentaient qu’un cinquième des investissements mondiaux en 2000, devrait voir leur part tripler d’ici 2030. Les changements démographiques joueront un grand rôle dans ces mutations structurelles puisque la population mondiale devrait passer de 7 milliards en 2010 à 8,5 milliards en 2030 tandis que les pays développés connaissent un vieillissement rapide.

« Le rapport GDH repose sur l’exploitation d’une somme phénoménale d’informations statistiques et constitue l’un des efforts les plus aboutis de projection dans un futur éloigné », explique Kaushik Basu, premier vice-président et économiste en chef de la Banque mondiale. « L’expérience de pays aussi divers que la Corée du Sud, l’Indonésie, le Brésil, la Turquie et l’Afrique du Sud nous montre combien le rôle de l’investissement est crucial pour la croissance à long terme. Dans moins d’une génération, l’investissement mondial sera dominé par les pays en développement, la Chine et l’Inde en tête. Ces deux pays devraient, en effet, assurer 38 % des investissements bruts mondiaux en 2030. Ces changements vont modifier le paysage économique mondial et c’est ce qu’étudie le rapport GDH. »

Le rattrapage des retards de productivité, l’intégration croissante dans les marchés mondiaux, la poursuite de bonnes politiques macroéconomiques ainsi que les progrès accomplis dans l’éducation et la santé sont autant de facteurs d’accélération de la croissance qui créent d’énormes opportunités d’investissement, lesquelles entraînent à leur tour une modification de l’équilibre économique mondial en faveur des pays en développement..À cela s’ajoute l’explosion démographique de la jeunesse, qui contribuera aussi à doper l’investissement : la population globale des pays en développement devrait s’accroître de 1,4 milliard d’individus d’ici 2030, sachant que le bénéfice de ce « dividende démographique » n’a pas encore été totalement récolté, en particulier dans les régions relativement plus jeunes que sont l’Afrique subsaharienne et l’Asie du Sud.

Les pays en développement auront probablement, enfin, les ressources nécessaires pour financer des investissements massifs dans les infrastructures et les services, au premier rang desquels l’éducation et la santé, ce qui est une bonne nouvelle. Les robustes taux d’épargne des pays en développement devraient culminer à 34 % du revenu national en 2014 et enregistrer une moyenne annuelle de 32 % jusqu’en 2030. Globalement, le monde en développement représentera 62 à 64 % de l’épargne mondiale en 2030 (25 à 27 000 milliards), contre 45 % en 2010.

Toutefois, comme le souligne Hans Timmer, directeur du Groupe des perspectives de développement à la Banque mondiale, « malgré de hauts niveaux d’épargne, et pour être en mesure de financer leurs importants besoins d’investissements, les pays en développement devront à l’avenir accroître considérablement leur participation, actuellement limitée, aux marchés financiers internationaux s’ils souhaitent tirer parti des profonds bouleversements en cours ».

Le rapport GDH envisage deux scénarios qui diffèrent par la vitesse de convergence entre les niveaux de revenu par habitant des pays développés et des pays en développement, et par le rythme des transformations structurelles des deux groupes (sur le plan du développement du secteur financier et de l’amélioration des institutions notamment). Le premier scénario prévoit une convergence progressive entre les pays développés et les pays en développement et le second une évolution nettement plus rapide.

Pour les vingt prochaines années, le scénario progressif et le scénario rapide prévoient une croissance économique moyenne de, respectivement, 2,6 % et 3 % par an dans le monde, et de 4,8 % et 5,5 % dans les pays en développement.

Dans les deux hypothèses, à l’horizon 2030, les services représenteront plus de 60 % de l’emploi total dans les pays en développement et plus de 50 % du commerce mondial. Ce changement est lié à l’augmentation de la demande en services d’infrastructure induite par l’évolution démographique. Le rapport GDH chiffre d’ailleurs à 14 600 milliards de dollars les besoins de financement d’infrastructures du monde en développement d’ici 2030.

Le rapport souligne aussi le vieillissement des populations d’Asie de l’Est, d’Europe de l’Est et d’Asie centrale, régions dans lesquelles les taux d’épargne privée devraient afficher une baisse particulièrement marquée. L’évolution démographique mettra à l’épreuve la pérennité des finances publiques et les États devront résoudre des enjeux complexes afin de maîtriser la charge des soins de santé et des retraites sans imposer de trop grandes difficultés aux personnes âgées. L’Afrique subsaharienne qui a une population relativement jeune, en augmentation rapide, et qui connaît une solide croissance économique, sera la seule région à ne pas enregistrer de baisse du taux d’épargne.

En termes absolus, l’épargne continuera néanmoins à être dominée par l’Asie et le Moyen-Orient. Selon le scénario de convergence progressive, en 2030, la Chine épargnera nettement plus que les autres pays en développement (9 000 milliards en dollars de 2010), suivie de loin par l’Inde (1 700 milliards), dépassant les niveaux d’épargne du Japon et des États-Unis dans les années 2020.

Selon le même scénario, à l’horizon 2030, la Chine représentera à elle seule 30 % des investissements mondiaux, tandis que le Brésil, l’Inde et la Russie y contribueront ensemble à hauteur de 13 %. En volume, les investissements atteindront 15 000 milliards (en dollars de 2010) dans les pays en développement contre 10 000 milliards pour les pays à revenu élevé. La Chine et l’Inde représenteront près de la moitié des investissements mondiaux dans le secteur manufacturier.

« Le rapport GDH met clairement en évidence le rôle croissant des pays en développement dans l’économie mondiale, et c’est incontestablement une avancée significative », indique Maurizio Bussolo, économiste principal à la Banque mondiale et auteur principal du rapport, tout en soulignant que « cette meilleure répartition des richesses entre pays ne signifie pas que tous les habitants des différents pays en bénéficieront de manière égale ».

Selon le rapport, les groupes de population les moins instruits d’un pays, qui ont peu ou pas du tout d’épargne, se trouvent dans l’impossibilité d’améliorer leur capacité de gain et, pour les plus pauvres, d’échapper à l’engrenage de la pauvreté.

Maurizio Bussolo conclut : « Les responsables politiques des pays en développement ont un rôle déterminant à jouer pour stimuler l’épargne privée par des mesures qui permettront d’élever le capital humain, en particulier pour les plus pauvres ».

Points marquants des différentes régions

L’Asie de l’Est et le Pacifique enregistreront une baisse de leur taux d’épargne et une chute encore plus forte de leur taux d’investissement, taux qui resteront toutefois élevés à l’échelle internationale. Malgré cette baisse des taux, la part de la région dans l’investissement et l’épargne continuera d’augmenter au plan mondial jusqu’en 2030 en raison d’une solide croissance économique. La région connaît un fort dividende démographique, avec moins de 4 personnes d’âge non actif pour 10 personnes d’âge actif, ce qui représente le plus faible taux de dépendance du monde. Ce dividende arrivera à son terme après avoir atteint un pic en 2015. La croissance de la population active ralentira ensuite et en 2040 la région pourrait afficher l’un des taux de dépendance les plus élevés de toutes les régions en développement (avec plus de 5,5 personnes d’âge non actif pour 10 personnes d’âge actif). La Chine, grand moteur de la région, devrait continuer à enregistrer d’importants excédents de la balance des opérations courantes, en raison de fortes baisses de son taux d’investissement liées à l’évolution du pays vers un système de plus faible engagement public dans les investissements.

L’Europe de l’Est et l’Asie centrale forment la région la plus avancée en termes de transition démographique, qui devrait être la seule du monde en développement à atteindre une croissance démographique nulle d’ici 2030. Ce vieillissement, qui devrait ralentir la croissance économique de la région, pourrait aussi entraîner une baisse du taux d’épargne plus forte que dans les autres régions en développement, à l’exception de l’Asie de l’Est. Le taux d’épargne pourrait ainsi descendre au-dessous du taux d’investissement, ce qui obligerait les pays de la région à attirer des flux de capitaux extérieurs pour financer leurs investissements. La région devra également faire face à une importante pression budgétaire due au vieillissement. La Turquie, par exemple, pourrait voir ses dépenses de retraites publiques augmenter de plus de 50 % d’ici 2030 en application du régime actuel. Plusieurs autres pays de la région seront aussi confrontés à d’importantes augmentations des dépenses de retraites et de santé.

L’Amérique latine et les Caraïbes forment une région où l’épargne est historiquement faible, qui pourrait afficher l’épargne la plus faible au monde en 2030. La démographie devrait certes y jouer un rôle positif (avec une baisse du taux de dépendance jusqu’en 2025) mais cet avantage sera probablement neutralisé par le développement du marché financier (qui réduit l’épargne de précaution) et une croissance économique modérée. De même, l’effet positif puis négatif de la démographie sur la croissance de la population active devrait d’abord entraîner une hausse du taux d’investissement à court terme puis une baisse progressive. Toutefois, la relation entre inégalité et épargne pourrait déboucher sur un autre scénario dans cette région. Comme ailleurs, les ménages les plus pauvres ont tendance à moins épargner ; l’amélioration des capacités de gain, l’augmentation des revenus et la réduction des inégalités pourraient donc doper l’épargne nationale et surtout contribuer à rompre le cercle vicieux de la pauvreté entretenu par le faible niveau d’épargne des ménages pauvres.

Le Moyen-Orient et l’Afrique du Nord disposent d’une importante marge de développement du marché financier, susceptible de soutenir l’investissement mais aussi, en raison du vieillissement de la population, de réduire l’épargne. De ce fait, les excédents de la balance des opérations courantes pourraient baisser modérément jusqu’en 2030, en fonction du rythme du développement du marché financier. Cette région est dans une phase de transition démographique relativement précoce qui se caractérise par une croissance encore rapide de la population générale et de la population active en même temps qu’une augmentation de la part des personnes âgées. Le changement de la structure des ménages pourrait aussi influencer les modèles d’épargne. Cette structure pourrait, en effet, évoluer d’une organisation intergénérationnelle, où la famille prend en charge les anciens, vers une structure composée de ménages plus petits avec une plus grande dépendance des personnes âgées vis-à-vis des revenus patrimoniaux. C’est dans cette région que les ménages à faible revenu recourent le moins aux institutions financières officielles pour épargner, d’où une marge importante de développement du rôle des marchés financiers dans l’épargne des ménages.

L’Asie du Sud restera l’une des régions où l’on épargne et investit le plus jusqu’en 2030. Toutefois, compte tenu des possibilités de progression rapide de la croissance économique et des marchés financiers, l’évolution de l’épargne, de l’investissement et des flux de capitaux peut varier considérablement : dans l’hypothèse d’une progression plus rapide de la croissance économique et des marchés financiers, les taux d’investissement resteront élevés tandis que l’épargne baissera considérablement, d’où d’importants déficits de la balance des opérations courantes. L’Asie du Sud est une région jeune qui, vers 2035, aura probablement le plus haut ratio au monde des personnes d’âge actif par rapport aux personnes d’âge non actif. Le phénomène général de déplacement des investissements vers le secteur manufacturier et le secteur des services aux dépens de l’agriculture devrait être particulièrement marqué en Asie du Sud ; la part de cette région dans les investissements globaux devrait ainsi presque doubler dans le secteur manufacturier et gagner au moins huit points de pourcentage dans le secteur des services, dépassant les deux tiers du total.

En Afrique subsaharienne, le taux d’investissement restera stable en raison d’une solide croissance de la population active. C’est la seule région qui n’enregistrera pas de baisse de son taux d’épargne dans l’hypothèse d’un développement modéré des marchés financiers, le vieillissement n’y étant pas un facteur significatif. Dans le scénario d’une croissance plus rapide, les pays africains plus pauvres connaîtront un développement plus marqué des marchés financiers et les investisseurs étrangers seront de plus en plus disposés à financer des investissements dans la région. L’Afrique subsaharienne est actuellement la région la plus jeune, qui affiche aussi le plus haut ratio de dépendance. Ce ratio enregistrera une baisse constante sur toute la période considérée et au-delà, entraînant un dividende démographique durable. C’est cette région qui aura les plus grands besoins d’investissement en infrastructures au cours des vingt prochaines années (en pourcentage du PIB). Dans le même temps, on observera probablement un changement dans le financement des investissements en infrastructures qui devrait être davantage ouvert au secteur privé, avec une augmentation substantielle des afflux de capitaux privés, venant notamment des autres régions en développement.

Source: WorldBank.org

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Forte progression du poids du monde en développement d’ici 2030

Posted on 19 May 2013 by Africa Business

  • La part des pays en développement dans les investissements mondiaux va tripler d’ici 2030.
  • La Chine et l’Inde seront les plus grands investisseurs du monde en développement.
  • L’amélioration des conditions de vie des populations pauvres passe par une meilleure éducation.

Dans moins d’une génération, le monde en développement dominera l’épargne et les investissements mondiaux. C’est ce qui ressort du dernier rapport Global Development Horizons (GDH).

Ce rapport étudie l’évolution probable des tendances en matière d’investissement, d’épargne et de mouvement de capitaux au cours des vingt prochaines années. Il prévoit que, d’ici 2030, les pays en développement, et principalement ceux d’Asie de l’Est et d’Amérique latine, abriteront la moitié des capitaux mondiaux — soit 158 000 milliards de dollars (en dollars de 2010) — contre un tiers seulement aujourd’hui.

Selon cette nouvelle publication intitulée Capital for the Future: Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World (« Les capitaux de demain : épargne et investissement dans un monde interdépendant »), les pays en développement, qui ne représentaient qu’un cinquième des investissements mondiaux en 2000, devrait voir leur part tripler d’ici 2030.

Le rattrapage des retards de productivité, l’intégration croissante dans les marchés mondiaux, la poursuite de bonnes politiques macroéconomiques ainsi que les progrès accomplis dans l’éducation et la santé sont autant de facteurs d’accélération de la croissance qui créent d’énormes opportunités d’investissement, lesquelles entraînent à leur tour une modification de l’équilibre économique mondial en faveur des pays en développement.

À cela s’ajoute l’explosion démographique de la jeunesse, qui contribuera aussi à doper l’investissement. D’ici 2020, c’est-à-dire dans moins de sept ans, la croissance de la population mondiale en âge de travailler sera exclusivement déterminée par les pays en développement dont la population globale devrait s’accroître d’1,4 milliard d’individus d’ici 2030. Or tout le bénéfice de ce « dividende démographique » n’a pas encore été récolté, en particulier dans les régions relativement plus jeunes que sont l’Afrique subsaharienne et l’Asie du Sud.

Le rapport GDH envisage deux scénarios qui diffèrent par la vitesse de convergence entre les niveaux de revenu par habitant des pays développés et des pays en développement, et par le rythme des transformations structurelles des deux groupes (sur le plan du développement du secteur financier et de l’amélioration des institutions notamment). Le premier scénario prévoit une convergence progressive entre les pays développés et les pays en développement et le second une évolution nettement plus rapide.

Dans les deux hypothèses, à l’horizon 2030, les services représenteront plus de 60 % de l’emploi total dans les pays en développement et plus de 50 % du commerce mondial. Ce changement est lié à l’augmentation de la demande en services d’infrastructure induite par l’évolution démographique. Le rapport GDH chiffre d’ailleurs à 14 600 milliards de dollars les besoins de financement d’infrastructures du monde en développement d’ici 2030.

Le rapport souligne aussi le vieillissement des populations d’Asie de l’Est, d’Europe de l’Est et d’Asie centrale, régions dans lesquelles les taux d’épargne privée devraient afficher une baisse particulièrement marquée. L’évolution démographique mettra à l’épreuve la pérennité des finances publiques et les États devront résoudre des enjeux complexes afin de maîtriser la charge des soins de santé et des retraites sans imposer de trop grandes difficultés aux personnes âgées. L’Afrique subsaharienne qui a une population relativement jeune, en augmentation rapide, et qui connaît une solide croissance économique, sera la seule région à ne pas enregistrer de baisse du taux d’épargne.

Open Quotes

Les responsables politiques des pays en développement ont un rôle déterminant à jouer pour stimuler l’épargne privée par des mesures qui permettront d’élever le capital humain, en particulier pour les plus pauvres. Close Quotes

Maurizio Bussolo
Auteur principal du rapport, Global Development Horizons 2013

En termes absolus, l’épargne continuera néanmoins à être dominée par l’Asie et le Moyen-Orient. Selon le scénario de convergence progressive, en 2030, la Chine épargnera nettement plus que les autres pays en développement (9 000 milliards en dollars de 2010), suivie de loin par l’Inde (1 700 milliards), dépassant les niveaux d’épargne du Japon et des États-Unis dans les années 2020.

Selon le même scénario, à l’horizon 2030, la Chine représentera à elle seule 30 % des investissements mondiaux, tandis que le Brésil, l’Inde et la Russie y contribueront ensemble à hauteur de 13 %. En volume, les investissements atteindront 15 000 milliards (en dollars de 2010) dans les pays en développement contre 10 000 milliards pour les pays à revenu élevé. La Chine et l’Inde seront aussi en tête du classement des plus gros investisseurs du monde en développement, ces deux pays représentant ensemble 38 % des investissements bruts mondiaux en 2030 et près de la moitié des investissements mondiaux dans le secteur manufacturier.

« Le rapport GDH met clairement en évidence le rôle croissant des pays en développement dans l’économie mondiale, et c’est incontestablement une avancée significative », indique Maurizio Bussolo, économiste principal à la Banque mondiale et auteur principal du rapport, tout en soulignant que « cette meilleure répartition des richesses entre pays ne signifie pas que tous les habitants des différents pays en bénéficieront de manière égale ».

Selon le rapport, les groupes de population les moins instruits d’un pays, qui ont peu ou pas du tout d’épargne, se trouvent dans l’impossibilité d’améliorer leur capacité de gain et, pour les plus pauvres, d’échapper à l’engrenage de la pauvreté.

Et Maurizio Bussolo de conclure : « Les responsables politiques des pays en développement ont un rôle déterminant à jouer pour stimuler l’épargne privée par des mesures qui permettront d’élever le capital humain, en particulier pour les plus pauvres ».

Points marquants des différentes régions

L’Asie de l’Est et le Pacifique enregistreront une baisse de leur taux d’épargne et une chute encore plus forte de leur taux d’investissement, taux qui resteront toutefois élevés à l’échelle internationale. Malgré cette baisse des taux, la part de la région dans l’investissement et l’épargne continuera d’augmenter au plan mondial jusqu’en 2030 en raison d’une solide croissance économique. La région connaît un fort dividende démographique, avec moins de 4 personnes d’âge non actif pour 10 personnes d’âge actif, ce qui représente le plus faible taux de dépendance du monde. Ce dividende arrivera à son terme après avoir atteint un pic en 2015. La croissance de la population active ralentira ensuite et en 2040 la région pourrait afficher l’un des taux de dépendance les plus élevés de toutes les régions en développement (avec plus de 5,5 personnes d’âge non actif pour 10 personnes d’âge actif). La Chine, grand moteur de la région, devrait continuer à enregistrer d’importants excédents de la balance des opérations courantes, en raison de fortes baisses de son taux d’investissement liées à l’évolution du pays vers un système de plus faible engagement public dans les investissements.

 

L’Europe de l’Est et l’Asie centrale forment la région la plus avancée en termes de transition démographique, qui devrait être la seule du monde en développement à atteindre une croissance démographique nulle d’ici 2030. Ce vieillissement, qui devrait ralentir la croissance économique de la région, pourrait aussi entraîner une baisse du taux d’épargne plus forte que dans les autres régions en développement, à l’exception de l’Asie de l’Est. Le taux d’épargne pourrait ainsi descendre au-dessous du taux d’investissement, ce qui obligerait les pays de la région à attirer des flux de capitaux extérieurs pour financer leurs investissements. La région devra également faire face à une importante pression budgétaire due au vieillissement. La Turquie, par exemple, pourrait voir ses dépenses de retraites publiques augmenter de plus de 50 % d’ici 2030 en application du régime actuel. Plusieurs autres pays de la région seront aussi confrontés à d’importantes augmentations des dépenses de retraites et de santé.

 

L’Amérique latine et les Caraïbes forment une région où l’épargne est historiquement faible, qui pourrait afficher l’épargne la plus faible au monde en 2030. La démographie devrait certes y jouer un rôle positif (avec une baisse du taux de dépendance jusqu’en 2025) mais cet avantage sera probablement neutralisé par le développement du marché financier (qui réduit l’épargne de précaution) et une croissance économique modérée. De même, l’effet positif puis négatif de la démographie sur la croissance de la population active devrait d’abord entraîner une hausse du taux d’investissement à court terme puis une baisse progressive. Toutefois, la relation entre inégalité et épargne pourrait déboucher sur un autre scénario dans cette région. Comme ailleurs, les ménages les plus pauvres ont tendance à moins épargner ; l’amélioration des capacités de gain, l’augmentation des revenus et la réduction des inégalités pourraient donc doper l’épargne nationale et surtout contribuer à rompre le cercle vicieux de la pauvreté entretenu par le faible niveau d’épargne des ménages pauvres.

 

Le Moyen-Orient et l’Afrique du Nord disposent d’une importante marge de développement du marché financier, susceptible de soutenir l’investissement mais aussi, en raison du vieillissement de la population, de réduire l’épargne. De ce fait, les excédents de la balance des opérations courantes pourraient baisser modérément jusqu’en 2030, en fonction du rythme du développement du marché financier. Cette région est dans une phase de transition démographique relativement précoce qui se caractérise par une croissance encore rapide de la population générale et de la population active en même temps qu’une augmentation de la part des personnes âgées. Le changement de la structure des ménages pourrait aussi influencer les modèles d’épargne. Cette structure pourrait, en effet, évoluer d’une organisation intergénérationnelle, où la famille prend en charge les anciens, vers une structure composée de ménages plus petits avec une plus grande dépendance des personnes âgées vis-à-vis des revenus patrimoniaux. C’est dans cette région que les ménages à faible revenu recourent le moins aux institutions financières officielles pour épargner, d’où une marge importante de développement du rôle des marchés financiers dans l’épargne des ménages.

L’Asie du Sud restera l’une des régions où l’on épargne et investit le plus jusqu’en 2030. Toutefois, compte tenu des possibilités de progression rapide de la croissance économique et des marchés financiers, l’évolution de l’épargne, de l’investissement et des flux de capitaux peut varier considérablement : dans l’hypothèse d’une progression plus rapide de la croissance économique et des marchés financiers, les taux d’investissement resteront élevés tandis que l’épargne baissera considérablement, d’où d’importants déficits de la balance des opérations courantes. L’Asie du Sud est une région jeune qui, vers 2035, aura probablement le plus haut ratio au monde des personnes d’âge actif par rapport aux personnes d’âge non actif. Le phénomène général de déplacement des investissements vers le secteur manufacturier et le secteur des services aux dépens de l’agriculture devrait être particulièrement marqué en Asie du Sud ; la part de cette région dans les investissements globaux devrait ainsi presque doubler dans le secteur manufacturier et gagner au moins huit points de pourcentage dans le secteur des services, dépassant les deux tiers du total.

 

En Afrique subsaharienne, le taux d’investissement restera stable en raison d’une solide croissance de la population active. C’est la seule région qui n’enregistrera pas de baisse de son taux d’épargne dans l’hypothèse d’un développement modéré des marchés financiers, le vieillissement n’y étant pas un facteur significatif. Dans le scénario d’une croissance plus rapide, les pays africains plus pauvres connaîtront un développement plus marqué des marchés financiers et les investisseurs étrangers seront de plus en plus disposés à financer des investissements dans la région. L’Afrique subsaharienne est actuellement la région la plus jeune, qui affiche aussi le plus haut ratio de dépendance. Ce ratio enregistrera une baisse constante sur toute la période considérée et au-delà, entraînant un dividende démographique durable. C’est cette région qui aura les plus grands besoins d’investissement en infrastructures au cours des vingt prochaines années (en pourcentage du PIB). Dans le même temps, on observera probablement un changement dans le financement des investissements en infrastructures qui devrait être davantage ouvert au secteur privé, avec une augmentation substantielle des afflux de capitaux privés, venant notamment des autres régions en développement.

Source: WorldBank.org

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Developing World’s Share of Global Investment to Triple by 2030, Says New World Bank Report

Posted on 18 May 2013 by Africa Business

Seventeen years from now, half the global stock of capital, totaling $158 trillion (in 2010 dollars), will reside in the developing world, compared to less than one-third today, with countries in East Asia and Latin America accounting for the largest shares of this stock, says the latest edition of the World Bank’s Global Development Horizons (GDH) report, which explores patterns of investment, saving and capital flows as they are likely to evolve over the next two decades.

Developing countries’ share in global investment is projected to triple by 2030 to three-fifths, from one-fifth in 2000, says the report, titled ‘Capital for the Future: Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World’. With world population set to rise from 7 billion in 2010 to 8.5 billion 2030 and rapid aging in the advanced countries, demographic changes will profoundly influence these structural shifts.

“GDH is one of the finest efforts at peering into the distant future. It does this by marshaling an amazing amount of statistical information,” said Kaushik Basu, the World Bank’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “We know from the experience of countries as diverse as South Korea, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa the pivotal role investment plays in driving long-term growth. In less than a generation, global investment will be dominated by the developing countries. And among the developing countries, China and India are expected to be the largest investors, with the two countries together accounting for 38 percent of the global gross investment in 2030. All this will change the landscape of the global economy, and GDH analyzes how.”

Productivity catch-up, increasing integration into global markets, sound macroeconomic policies, and improved education and health are helping speed growth and create massive investment opportunities, which, in turn, are spurring a shift in global economic weight to developing countries. A further boost is being provided by the youth bulge. With developing countries on course to add more than 1.4 billion people to their combined population between now and 2030, the full benefit of the demographic dividend has yet to be reaped, particularly in the relatively younger regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

The good news is that, unlike in the past, developing countries will likely have the resources needed to finance these massive future investments for infrastructure and services, including in education and health care. Strong saving rates in developing countries are expected to peak at 34 percent of national income in 2014 and will average 32 percent annually until 2030. In aggregate terms, the developing world will account for 62-64 percent of global saving of $25-27 trillion by 2030, up from 45 percent in 2010.

“Despite strong saving levels to finance their massive investment needs in the future, developing countries will need to significantly improve their currently limited participation in international financial markets if they are to reap the benefits of the tectonic shifts taking place,” said Hans Timmer, Director of the Bank’s Development Prospects Group.

GDH paints two scenarios, based on the speed of convergence between the developed and developing worlds in per capita income levels, and the pace of structural transformations (such as financial development and improvements in institutional quality) in the two groups. Scenario one entails a gradual convergence between the developed and developing world while a much more rapid scenario is envisioned in the second.

The gradual and rapid scenarios predict average world economic growth of 2.6 percent and 3 percent per year, respectively, during the next two decades; the developing world’s growth will average an annual rate of 4.8 percent in the gradual convergence scenario and 5.5 percent in the rapid one.

In both scenarios, developing countries’ employment in services will account for more than 60 percent of their total employment by 2030 and they will account for more than 50 percent of global trade. This shift will occur alongside demographic changes that will increase demand for infrastructural services. Indeed, the report estimates the developing world’s infrastructure financing needs at $14.6 trillion between now and 2030.

The report also points to aging populations in East Asia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which will see the largest reductions in saving rates. Demographic change will test the sustainability of public finances and complex policy challenges will arise from efforts to reduce the burden of health care and pensions without imposing severe hardships on the old. In contrast, Sub-Saharan Africa, with its relatively young and rapidly growing population as well as robust economic growth, will be the only region not experiencing a decline in its saving rate.

In absolute terms, however, saving will continue to be dominated by Asia and the Middle East. In the gradual convergence scenario, in 2030, China will save far more than any other developing country — $9 trillion in 2010 dollars — with India a distant second with $1.7 trillion, surpassing the levels of Japan and the United States in the 2020s.

As a result, under the gradual convergence scenario, China will account for 30 percent of global investment in 2030, with Brazil, India and Russia together accounting for another 13 percent. In terms of volumes, investment in the developing world will reach $15 trillion (in 2010 dollars), versus $10 trillion in high-income economies. China and India will account for almost half of all global manufacturing investment.

“GDH clearly highlights the increasing role developing countries will play in the global economy. This is undoubtedly a significant achievement. However, even if wealth will be more evenly distributed across countries, this does not mean that, within countries, everyone will equally benefit,” said Maurizio Bussolo, Lead Economist and lead author of the report.

The report finds that the least educated groups in a country have low or no saving, suggesting an inability to improve their earning capacity and, for the poorest, to escape a poverty trap.

“Policy makers in developing countries have a central role to play in boosting private saving through policies that raise human capital, especially for the poor,” concluded Bussolo.

Regional Highlights:

East Asia and the Pacific will see its saving rate fall and its investment rate will drop by even more, though they will still be high by international standards. Despite these lower rates, the region’s shares of global investment and saving will rise through 2030 due to robust economic growth. The region is experiencing a big demographic dividend, with fewer than 4 non-working age people for every 10 working age people, the lowest dependency ratio in the world. This dividend will end after reaching its peak in 2015. Labor force growth will slow, and by 2040 the region may have one of the highest dependency ratios of all developing regions (with more than 5.5 non-working age people for every 10 working age people). China, a big regional driver, is expected to continue to run substantial current account surpluses, due to large declines in its investment rate as it transitions to a lower level of public involvement in investment.

Eastern Europe and Central Asia is the furthest along in its demographic transition, and will be the only developing region to reach zero population growth by 2030. Aging is expected to moderate economic growth in the region, and also has the potential to bring down the saving rate more than any developing region, apart from East Asia. The region’s saving rate may decline more than its investment rate, in which case countries in the region will have to finance investment by attracting more capital flows. The region will also face significant fiscal pressure from aging. Turkey, for example, would see its public pension spending increase by more than 50 percent by 2030 under the current pension scheme. Several other countries in the region will also face large increases in pension and health care expenditures.

Latin America and the Caribbean, a historically low-saving region, may become the lowest-saving region by 2030. Although demographics will play a positive role, as dependency ratios are projected to fall through 2025, financial market development (which reduces precautionary saving) and a moderation in economic growth will play a counterbalancing role. Similarly, the rising and then falling impact of demography on labor force growth means that the investment rate is expected to rise in the short run, and then gradually fall. However, the relationship between inequality and saving in the region suggests an alternative scenario. As in other regions, poorer households tend to save much less; thus, improvements in earning capacity, rising incomes, and reduced inequality have the potential not only to boost national saving but, more importantly, to break poverty traps perpetuated by low saving by poor households.

The Middle East and North Africa has significant scope for financial market development, which has the potential to sustain investment but also, along with aging, to reduce saving. Thus, current account surpluses may also decline moderately up to 2030, depending on the pace of financial market development. The region is in a relatively early phase of its demographic transition: characterized by a still fast growing population and labor force, but also a rising share of elderly. Changes in household structure may also impact saving patterns, with a transition from intergenerational households and family-based old age support to smaller households and greater reliance on asset income in old age. The region has the lowest use of formal financial institutions for saving by low-income households, and scope for financial markets to play a significantly greater role in household saving.

South Asia will remain one of the highest saving and highest investing regions until 2030. However, with the scope for rapid economic growth and financial development, results for saving, investment, and capital flows will vary significantly: in a scenario of more rapid economic growth and financial market development, high investment rates will be sustained while saving falls significantly, implying large current account deficits. South Asia is a young region, and by about 2035 is likely to have the highest ratio of working- to nonworking-age people of any region in the world. The general shift in investment away from agriculture towards manufacturing and service sectors is likely to be especially pronounced in South Asia, with the region’s share of total investment in manufacturing expected to nearly double, and investment in the service sector to increase by more than 8 percentage points, to over two-thirds of total investment.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s investment rate will be steady due to robust labor force growth. It will be the only region to not see a decrease in its saving rate in a scenario of moderate financial market development, since aging will not be a significant factor. In a scenario of faster growth, poorer African countries will experience deeper financial market development, and foreign investors will become increasingly willing to finance investment in the region. Sub-Saharan Africa is currently the youngest of all regions, with the highest dependency ratio. This ratio will steadily decrease throughout the time horizon of this report and beyond, bringing a long lasting demographic dividend. The region will have the greatest infrastructure investment needs over the next two decades (relative to GDP). At the same time, there will likely be a shift in infrastructure investment financing toward greater participation by the private sector, and substantial increases in private capital inflows, particularly from other developing regions.

Source: WorldBank.org

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Developing countries to dominate global saving and investment, but the poor will not necessarily share the benefits, says report

Posted on 18 May 2013 by Africa Business

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • Developing world’s share of global investment to triple by 2030
  • China, India will be developing world’s largest investors
  • Boost to education needed so poor can improve their well-being

In less than a generation, global saving and investment will be dominated by the developing world, says the just-released Global Development Horizons (GDH) report.

By 2030, half the global stock of capital, totaling $158 trillion (in 2010 dollars), will reside in the developing world, compared to less than one-third today, with countries in East Asia and Latin America accounting for the largest shares of this stock, says the report, which explores patterns of investment, saving and capital flows as they are likely to evolve over the next two decades.

Titled ‘Capital for the Future: Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World’, GDH projects developing countries’ share in global investment to triple by 2030 to three-fifths, from one-fifth in 2000.

Productivity catch-up, increasing integration into global markets, sound macroeconomic policies, and improved education and health are helping speed growth and create massive investment opportunities, which, in turn, are spurring a shift in global economic weight to developing countries.

A further boost is being provided by the youth bulge. By 2020, less than 7 years from now, growth in world’s working-age population will be exclusively determined by developing countries. With developing countries on course to add more than 1.4 billion people to their combined population between now and 2030, the full benefit of the demographic dividend has yet to be reaped, particularly in the relatively younger regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

GDH paints two scenarios, based on the speed of convergence between the developed and developing worlds in per capita income levels, and the pace of structural transformations (such as financial development and improvements in institutional quality) in the two groups. Scenario one entails a gradual convergence between the developed and developing world while a much more rapid one is envisioned in the second.

In both scenarios, developing countries’ employment in services will account for more than 60 percent of their total employment by 2030 and they will account for more than 50 percent of global trade. This shift will occur alongside demographic changes that will increase demand for infrastructural services. Indeed, the report estimates the developing world’s infrastructure financing needs at $14.6 trillion between now and 2030.

The report also points to aging populations in East Asia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which will see the largest reductions in private saving rates. Demographic change will test the sustainability of public finances and complex policy challenges will arise from efforts to reduce the burden of health care and pensions without imposing severe hardships on the old. In contrast, Sub-Saharan Africa, with its relatively young and rapidly growing population as well as robust economic growth, will be the only region not experiencing a decline in its saving rate.

Open Quotes

Policy makers in developing countries have a central role to play in boosting private saving through policies that raise human capital, especially for the poor. Close Quotes

Maurizio Bussolo
Lead Author, Global Development Horizons 2013

In absolute terms, however, saving will continue to be dominated by Asia and the Middle East. In the gradual convergence scenario, in 2030, China will save far more than any other developing country — $9 trillion in 2010 dollars — with India a distant second with $1.7 trillion, surpassing the levels of Japan and the United States in the 2020s.

As a result, under the gradual convergence scenario, China will account for 30 percent of global investment in 2030, with Brazil, India and Russia together accounting for another 13 percent. In terms of volumes, investment in the developing world will reach $15 trillion (in 2010 dollars), versus $10 trillion in high-income economies. Again, China and India will be the largest investors among developing countries, with the two countries combined representing 38 percent of the global gross investment in 2030, and they will account for almost half of all global manufacturing investment.

“GDH clearly highlights the increasing role developing countries will play in the global economy. This is undoubtedly a significant achievement. However, even if wealth will be more evenly distributed across countries, this does not mean that, within countries, everyone will equally benefit,” said Maurizio Bussolo, Lead Economist and lead author of the report.

The report finds that the least educated groups in a country have low or no saving, suggesting an inability to improve their earning capacity and, for the poorest, to escape a poverty trap.

“Policy makers in developing countries have a central role to play in boosting private saving through policies that raise human capital, especially for the poor,” concluded Bussolo.

Regional Highlights:

East Asia and the Pacific will see its saving rate fall and its investment rate will drop by even more, though they will still be high by international standards. Despite these lower rates, the region’s shares of global investment and saving will rise through 2030 due to robust economic growth. The region is experiencing a big demographic dividend, with fewer than 4 non-working age people for every 10 working age people, the lowest dependency ratio in the world. This dividend will end after reaching its peak in 2015. Labor force growth will slow, and by 2040 the region may have one of the highest dependency ratios of all developing regions (with more than 5.5 non-working age people for every 10 working age people). China, a big regional driver, is expected to continue to run substantial current account surpluses, due to large declines in its investment rate as it transitions to a lower level of public involvement in investment.

Eastern Europe and Central Asia is the furthest along in its demographic transition, and will be the only developing region to reach zero population growth by 2030. Aging is expected to moderate economic growth in the region, and also has the potential to bring down the saving rate more than any developing region, apart from East Asia. The region’s saving rate may decline more than its investment rate, in which case countries in the region will have to finance investment by attracting more capital flows. The region will also face significant fiscal pressure from aging. Turkey, for example, would see its public pension spending increase by more than 50 percent by 2030 under the current pension scheme. Several other countries in the region will also face large increases in pension and health care expenditures.

Latin America and the Caribbean, a historically low-saving region, may become the lowest-saving region by 2030. Although demographics will play a positive role, as dependency ratios are projected to fall through 2025, financial market development (which reduces precautionary saving) and a moderation in economic growth will play a counterbalancing role. Similarly, the rising and then falling impact of demography on labor force growth means that the investment rate is expected to rise in the short run, and then gradually fall. However, the relationship between inequality and saving in the region suggests an alternative scenario. As in other regions, poorer households tend to save much less; thus, improvements in earning capacity, rising incomes, and reduced inequality have the potential not only to boost national saving but, more importantly, to break poverty traps perpetuated by low saving by poor households.

The Middle East and North Africa has significant scope for financial market development, which has the potential to sustain investment but also, along with aging, to reduce saving. Thus, current account surpluses may also decline moderately up to 2030, depending on the pace of financial market development. The region is in a relatively early phase of its demographic transition: characterized by a still fast growing population and labor force, but also a rising share of elderly. Changes in household structure may also impact saving patterns, with a transition from intergenerational households and family-based old age support to smaller households and greater reliance on asset income in old age. The region has the lowest use of formal financial institutions for saving by low-income households, and scope for financial markets to play a significantly greater role in household saving.

South Asia will remain one of the highest saving and highest investing regions until 2030. However, with the scope for rapid economic growth and financial development, results for saving, investment, and capital flows will vary significantly: in a scenario of more rapid economic growth and financial market development, high investment rates will be sustained while saving falls significantly, implying large current account deficits. South Asia is a young region, and by about 2035 is likely to have the highest ratio of working- to nonworking-age people of any region in the world. The general shift in investment away from agriculture towards manufacturing and service sectors is likely to be especially pronounced in South Asia, with the region’s share of total investment in manufacturing expected to nearly double, and investment in the service sector to increase by more than 8 percentage points, to over two-thirds of total investment.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s investment rate will be steady due to robust labor force growth. It will be the only region to not see a decrease in its saving rate in a scenario of moderate financial market development, since aging will not be a significant factor. In a scenario of faster growth, poorer African countries will experience deeper financial market development, and foreign investors will become increasingly willing to finance investment in the region. Sub-Saharan Africa is currently the youngest of all regions, with the highest dependency ratio. This ratio will steadily decrease throughout the time horizon of this report and beyond, bringing a long lasting demographic dividend. The region will have the greatest infrastructure investment needs over the next two decades (relative to GDP). At the same time, there will likely be a shift in infrastructure investment financing toward greater participation by the private sector, and substantial increases in private capital inflows, particularly from other developing regions.

 

Source: WorldBank.org

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Lithium Market Becoming More Reliant on Batteries for Continued Strong Demand Growth

Posted on 18 May 2013 by Africa Business

Rise in Consumption and Future Demand Driven by Lithium-ion Batteries

Roskill estimates that rechargeable batteries accounted for 27% of global lithium consumption in 2012, up from 15% in 2007 and 8% in 2002. This end-use was responsible for 44% of the net increase in lithium consumption over the last ten years, and 70% over the last five years. In the base-case growth scenario it is expected to contribute 75% of the growth in forecast demand to 2017, when total demand for lithium is expected to reach slightly over 238,000t lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE).

Other end-uses, including glass-ceramics, greases and polymers, have also shown high rates of growth, but are predicted to moderate over the next five years as emerging economy growth slows. The lithium industry is therefore becoming more reliant on rechargeable batteries to sustain high rates of future demand growth. In addition, in the period to 2017 Roskill forecasts that the main market driver for lithium-ion batteries will gradually switch from portable consumer electronics to electric vehicles, especially hybrid variants.

Reflecting the concentration of lithium-ion battery manufacturers and associated cathode material producers in China, Japan and South Korea, the East Asia region has become an increasingly important consumer of lithium products over the last decade. In 2012, East Asia accounted for 60% of total global consumption with Europe accounting for a further 24% and North America 9%.

Growing Supply-side Pressure is Predicted to Stall Further Lithium Price Rises

Roskill’s analysis suggests that the price of technical-grade lithium carbonate, the main product produced and consumed in the lithium market, recovered some of its global economic downturn losses as the market tightened in 2012, averaging US$5,300/t CIF, up 15% from 2010. This is below the 2007 peak of US$6,500/t, but well above the US$2,000-3,000/t levels seen in the early 2000s.

Lithium extraction, which totalled over 168,000t LCE in 2012, is undertaken predominately in Australia, Chile, Argentina and China, with roughly half of lithium output from hard rock sources and half from brine. Production is dominated by Talison Lithium in Australia, SQM and Rockwood Lithium in Chile, and FMC in Argentina. Just over two-thirds of lithium minerals extracted in Australia are processed into downstream chemical products in China, where producers such as Tianqi Lithium (who recently acquired Talison to secure a captive supply of mineral feedstock) operate mineral conversion plants.

Galaxy Resources commissioned a new 17,000tpy LCE mineral conversion plant in China in 2012. Canada Lithium is in the process of commissioning a 20,000tpy LCE plant in Quebec and several existing Chinese mineral conversion plants are also expanding capacity. FMC has increased brine-based processing capacity by a third in Argentina, while nearby Orocobre is also constructing a new brine-based operation due to be completed in 2014. In addition, Rockwood Lithium plans to complete a 20,000tpy LCE expansion in Chile in 2014. Combined, this additional capacity totals just under 100,000tpy LCE, enough to meet forecast demand to 2017.

As the opening of new and expanded capacity is concentrated over the next two years, Roskill forecasts that the lithium market could witness increased competition and supply-side pressure on pricing, with prices for technical-grade lithium carbonate potentially falling back to around US$5,000/t CIF in 2014.

Lithium: Market Outlook to 2017 (12th edition)is available at a price of £4900 / US$7900 / €6200 from Roskill Information Services Ltd, 54 Russell Road, London SW19 1QL ENGLAND.

Tel: +44-(0)20-8417-0087. Fax +44-(0)20-8417-1308.

Email: info@roskill.co.uk Web: http://www.roskill.com/lithium

Note to editors

The report contains 426 pages, 245 tables and 99 figures. It provides a detailed review of the industry, with subsections on the activities of the leading producing companies. It also analyses consumption, trade and prices.

Table of Contents

Page

1.         Summary    1

2.         Lithium Mineralogy, Occurrences and Reserves    10

2.1        Occurrence of lithium    10

2.1.1      Lithium minerals    10

2.1.2      Lithium clays    12

2.1.3      Lithium brines    12

2.2        Lithium reserves    14

3.         Lithium mining and processing    16

3.1        Extraction and processing of lithium brines    17

3.1.1      Other methods of brine extraction    20

3.2        Mining and processing of lithium minerals    21

3.3        Processing lithium mineral concentrates to lithium compounds    23

3.4        Processing lithium bearing clays into lithium compounds    26

3.5        Lithium compounds and chemicals    27

3.6        Production costs    30

4.         Production of lithium    34

4.1        Lithium production by source    35

4.1.1      Production of Lithium Minerals    37

4.1.2      Production from Lithium Brines    39

4.1.3      Production of lithium compounds from mineral conversion    41

4.1.4      Production of downstream lithium chemicals    43

4.2        Outlook for production capacity of lithium to 2017    44

4.2.1      Outlook for production capacity of lithium minerals    45

4.2.2      Outlook for lithium production capacity from brines    48

4.2.3      Outlook on lithium compound production from mineral conversion    51

4.3        Forecast production of lithium to 2017    52

5.         Review of lithium producing countries    55

5.1        Afghanistan 55

5.2        Argentina 56

5.2.1      FMC Litihum (MineradelAltiplano S.A.)    58

5.2.2      ADY Resources    59

5.2.3      Lithium Americas    61

5.2.4      Galaxy Resources (Lithium 1)    66

5.2.4.1    Sal de Vida Project    66

5.2.4.2    James Bay Hard-rock Lithium Project    68

5.2.5      Orocobre Ltd.    69

5.2.5.1    Salar de Olaroz    71

5.2.5.2    Salinas Grandes (Cangrejillo)    74

5.2.5.3    Guayatoyoc Project    74

5.2.5.4    Cauchari Project    75

5.2.6      Rodinia Lithium Inc.    76

5.2.6.1    Rodinia Lithium USA 78

5.2.7      Marifil Mines Ltd.    78

5.2.8      International Lithium Corporation    79

5.2.9      Other prospects for Lithium Production    79

5.3        Australia 80

5.3.1      Talison Lithium    82

5.3.1.1    Resources and Reserves    82

5.3.1.2    Production    85

5.3.1.3    Products    86

5.3.2      Galaxy Resources Ltd.    87

5.3.2.1    Reserves and Resources    88

5.3.2.2    Production    90

5.3.3      Reed Resources Ltd.    91

5.3.4      Altura Mining Ltd.    92

5.3.5      Artemis Resources    93

5.3.6      Amerilithium    93

5.3.7      Reward Minerals    93

5.4        Austria 93

5.5        Belgium 94

5.6        Bolivia 96

5.6.1      Salar de Uyuni 97

5.6.2      Salar de Coipasa    99

5.6.3      New World Resource Corp.    99

5.7        Brazil 100

5.7.1      CompanhiaBrasileira de Litio    102

5.7.2      Arqueana de Minérios e Metais Ltda.    103

5.7.3      Advance Metallurgical Group (AMG)    104

5.8        Canada 104

5.8.1      Lithium resources in Canada 105

5.8.2      Canadian trade in lithium    107

5.8.3      Past producers of lithium in Canada 108

5.8.3.1    Tantalum Mining Corp. of Canada Ltd. (TANCO)    108

5.8.4      Potential new producers of lithium in Canada 109

5.8.4.1    Canada Lithium Corp.    109

5.8.4.2    Nemaska Lithium    112

5.8.4.3    Avalon Rare Metals Inc.    115

5.8.4.4    Perilya Limited    116

5.8.4.5    Rock Tech Lithium Inc.    117

5.8.4.6    Critical Elements Corporation    120

5.8.4.7    Glen Eagle Resources Inc.    120

5.8.4.8    Aben Resources Ltd.    121

5.8.4.9    Toxco Inc. Canada 122

5.8.4.10   Other Canadian Lithium Projects    122

5.9        Chile 126

5.9.1      Chilean lithium reserves    127

5.9.2      Chilean lithium production    127

5.9.3      Special Lithium Operations Contracts (CEOLs)    128

5.9.4      SociedadQuímica y Minera    129

5.9.4.1    Reserves and Resources    130

5.9.4.2    Production    131

5.9.4.3    Products    132

5.9.4.4    Markets    134

5.9.4.5    Exports    135

5.9.5      Rockwood Litihum (Salar de Atacama and La Negra Plant)    136

5.9.6      Simbalik Group    138

5.9.7      Li3 Energy Inc.    139

5.9.7.1    Maricunga Property    139

5.9.7.2    Li3 Energy Peruvian Projects    141

5.9.8      First Potash Corp.    141

5.9.9      CODELCO    142

5.9.10 Mammoth Energy Group Inc.    142

5.9.11 Lomiko Metals Inc.    143

5.9.12 Errázuriz Lithium    143

5.9.13 Exports of litihum from Chile 143

5.10       China 146

5.10.1     Chinese reserves of lithium    147

5.10.1.1   Lithium Mineral Reserves    147

5.10.1.2   Lithium Brine Reserves    148

5.10.2     Production of lithium    149

5.10.2.1   Mineral Production    150

5.10.2.2   Brine Production    151

5.10.2.3   Lithium Chemicals and Metal Production    152

5.10.3     Chinese trade in lithium    155

5.10.4     Chinese lithium brine producers    157

5.10.4.1   Tibet Lithium New Technology Development Co. Ltd.    157

5.10.4.2   Qinghai CITIC Guoan Technology Development Co. Ltd.    159

5.10.4.3   Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co. Ltd.    160

5.10.4.4   Qinghai Lanke Lithium Industry Co. Ltd.    161

5.10.4.5   Tibet Sunrise Mining Development Ltd.    162

5.10.4.6   China MinMetals Non-Ferrous Metals Co. Ltd    163

5.10.5     Chinese lithium mineral producers    163

5.10.5.1   Fujian Huamin Import & Export Co. Ltd.    163

5.10.5.2   YichunHuili Industrial Co. Ltd.    164

5.10.5.3   GanZiRongda Lithium Co., Ltd.    164

5.10.5.4   Sichuan HidiliDexin Mineral Industry    165

5.10.5.5   Xinjiang Non-Ferrous Metals (Group) Ltd.    166

5.10.6     Chinese lithium mineral producers with mineral conversion capacity    166

5.10.6.1   Jiangxi Western Resources Lithium Industry    166

5.10.6.2   Sichuan Aba Guangsheng Lithium Co. Ltd.    167

5.10.6.3   Minfeng Lithium Co. Ltd.    167

5.10.6.4   Sichuan Ni&CoGuorun New Materials Co. Ltd.    168

5.10.7     Chinese mineral conversion plants    169

5.10.7.1   Sichuan Tianqi Lithium Shareholding Co. Ltd.    169

5.10.7.2   Galaxy Resources (Jiangsu Lithium Carbonate Plant)    171

5.10.7.3   General Lithium (Haimen) Corp.    172

5.10.7.4   China Non-Ferrous Metal Import & Export Xinjiang Corp.    173

5.10.7.5   Sichuan State Lithium Materials Co. Ltd.    174

5.10.7.6   Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd.    174

5.10.7.7   Sichuan Chenghehua Lithium Technology Co. Ltd.    176

5.10.8     Chinese lithium chemical producers    176

5.10.9     Specialist lithium bromide producers    177

5.10.10 Specialist lithium metal producers    178

5.11       Czech Republic 179

5.12       Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)    179

5.13       Finland 180

5.13.1     KeliberOy    180

5.13.2     Nortec Minerals Corp.    181

5.13.3     Leviäkangas Deposit    182

5.13.4     Syväjärvi Deposit    182

5.14       France 182

5.15       Germany 184

5.15.1     Rockwood Lithium (Langelsheim Plant)    185

5.15.2     Helm AG    185

5.15.3     Lithium exploration in Germany 185

5.16       Greece 186

5.17       India 186

5.17.1     FMC India Private Ltd.    188

5.17.2     Rockwood Lithium    188

5.18       Ireland 189

5.19       Israel 189

5.20       Japan 190

5.21       Kazakhstan 192

5.22       Mali 193

5.23       Mexico 193

5.23.1     LitioMex S.A. de C.V. (PieroSutti S.A. de C.V.)    193

5.23.2     First Potash Corp. (Mexico)    195

5.23.3     Bacanora Minerals Ltd.    195

5.24       Mongolia 196

5.25       Mozambique 196

5.26       Namibia 197

5.27       Netherlands 198

5.28       Portugal 199

5.28.1     SociedadMineira de Pegmatites    200

5.29       Russia 200

5.29.1     Russian Lithium Reserves and Resources    201

5.29.2     Russian Lithium Production    202

5.29.2.1   JSC Chemical and Metallurgical Plant    202

5.29.2.2   JSC Novosibirsk Chemical Concentration Plant    203

5.29.3     Russian Imports and Exports of Lithium    204

5.30       Serbia    205

5.31       South Africa 206

5.32       South Korea 206

5.33       Spain 207

5.33.1     Minera Del Duero 208

5.33.2     Solid Resources Ltd.    209

5.34       Taiwan 209

5.35       Tajikistan 210

5.36       Turkey 210

5.37       UK    211

5.38       Ukraine 212

5.39       USA 212

5.39.1     Trade in lithium to/from the USA 213

5.39.2     Rockwood Lithium (Chemetall Group)    214

5.39.2.1   Silver Peak, Kings Mountain and New Johnsonville operations (USA)    215

5.39.3     FMC Corporation    216

5.39.3.1   FMC Lithium    217

5.39.3.2   Other FMC Corporation facilities    218

5.39.4     Western Lithium Corporation    219

5.39.5     Simbol Materials Corp.    222

5.39.6     Albemarle Corporation    223

5.39.7     Toxco Inc.    223

5.39.8     AusAmerican Mining Corp. Ltd.    223

5.39.9     Other USA Companies    224

5.40       Uzbekistan 226

5.41       Zimbabwe 226

5.41.1     Bikita Minerals Ltd    227

5.41.2     Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation    228

5.41.3     Premier African Minerals    228

5.41.4     Cape Range Ltd.    229

6.         International trade in lithium    230

6.1        Trade in lithium carbonate    230

6.2        Trade in lithium hydroxide and oxides    233

6.3        Trade in lithium chloride    236

6.4        Trade in mineral concentrates    237

6.5        Trade in lithium brines    238

7.         Consumption of lithium    239

7.1        Consumption of lithium by end-use    239

7.2        Consumption of lithium by country/region    243

7.3        Consumption of lithium by product    245

7.4        Outlook for consumption of lithium by end-use    247

7.5        Outlook for lithium consumption by product    251

8.         Use of lithium in rechargeable batteries    253

8.1        Types of rechargeable batteries    253

8.1.1      Lithium-ion batteries    254

8.1.2      Lithium metal polymer batteries    256

8.1.3      Lithium-sulphur batteries    256

8.1.4      Lithium-air batteries    258

8.1.5      NiMH and NiCd batteries    258

8.2        Production of rechargeable batteries    258

8.2.1      Producers of rechargeable lithium batteries    261

8.2.2      Producers of nickel metal hydride batteries    262

8.3        Production of rechargeable lithium battery materials    262

8.3.1      Producers of rechargeable lithium battery materials    264

8.3.1.1    Cathode materials    264

8.3.1.2    Electrolyte salts    267

8.3.1.3    Anode materials    268

8.4        Consumption of rechargeable lithium batteries    268

8.4.1      Computing, communication and consumer (3C) market    269

8.4.2      Power devices and motive power    270

8.4.3      Heavy duty applications    272

8.4.4      Transportation    272

8.5        Consumption of NiMH and NiCd batteries    274

8.6        Consumption of lithium in rechargeable batteries    274

8.7        Outlook for demand for rechargeable batteries    278

8.8        Outlook for consumption of lithium in rechargeable batteries    281

9.         Use of lithium in ceramics    284

9.1        Use of lithium in ceramics    284

9.2        Production and consumption of ceramics    286

9.2.1      Ceramic tiles    287

9.2.1.1    Producers of ceramic tiles    289

9.2.2      Sanitaryware    291

9.2.2.1    Producers of sanitaryware    291

9.2.3      Tableware    293

9.2.3.1    Producers of tableware    294

9.2.4      Cookware and bakeware    295

9.3        Production and consumption of glazes and enamels    295

9.3.1      Producers of glazes and enamels    297

9.4        Outlook for ceramics production and consumption    298

9.5        Consumption of lithium in ceramics    299

9.5.1      Outlook for lithium demand in ceramics    300

10.        Use of lithium in glass-ceramics    302

10.1       Use of lithium in glass-ceramics    302

10.2       Production and consumption of glass-ceramics    304

10.2.1     Producers of glass-ceramics    305

10.3       Consumption of lithium in glass-ceramics    306

11.        Use of lithium in lubricating grease    309

11.1       Types of lubricating grease    309

11.2       Production of grease    311

11.2.1     Producers of lithium grease    314

11.3       Consumption of lithium greases    317

11.4       Consumption of lithium in greases    320

11.4.1     Outlook for demand for lithium in greases    321

12.        Use of lithium in glass    323

12.1       Use of lithium in glass    323

12.2       Production and consumption of glass    325

12.2.1     Container glass    326

12.2.2     Fibreglass    329

12.2.3     Speciality glass    330

12.3       Consumption of lithium in glass    330

12.3.1     Outlook for demand for lithium in glass    331

13.        Use of lithium in metallurgical powders    333

13.1       Continuous casting    333

13.1.1     Producers of continuous casting mould powders    334

13.1.2     Continually cast steel production    334

13.1.3     Consumption of continuous casting mould powders    335

13.1.4     Consumption of lithium in continuous casting mould powders    335

13.2       Traditional metal casting    337

13.3       Outlook for demand for lithium in casting powders    337

14.        Use of lithium in polymers    338

14.1       Types of polymers    338

14.2       Production of polymers    340

14.2.1     Producers of polymers    342

14.3       Consumption of polymers    344

14.4       Consumption of lithium in polymers    348

14.4.1     Outlook for lithium demand in polymers    348

15.        Use of lithium in air treatment    350

15.1       Absorption chillers    350

15.1.1     Production of absorption chillers    351

15.1.2     Producers of adsorption chillers    352

15.1.3     Producers of lithium bromide for absorption chillers    354

15.1.4     Consumption of lithium in absorption chillers    356

15.2       Dehumidification    357

15.2.1     Production of desiccant dehumidification systems    358

15.2.2     Producers of desiccant dehumidification systems    358

15.2.3     Consumption of lithium in desiccant dehumidifiers    359

15.3       Air purification    359

15.5       Outlook for demand for lithium in air treatment    360

16.        Use of lithium in primary batteries    362

16.1       Types of primary batteries    362

16.2       Production of lithium primary batteries    365

16.2.1     Producers of lithium primary batteries    367

16.3       Trade in primary batteries    369

16.4       Production of primary lithium battery materials    370

16.4.1     Producers of lithium primary battery anodes    371

16.5       Consumption of lithium primary batteries    373

16.5.1     Outlook for primary lithium battery consumption    374

16.6       Consumption of lithium in primary batteries    374

16.6.1     Outlook for demand for lithium in primary batteries    377

17.        Use of lithium in aluminium smelting    378

17.1       Process of aluminium smelting    378

17.2       Consumers of lithium in aluminium smelting    380

17.3       Consumption of lithium in aluminium smelting    382

17.3.1     Outlook for lithium demand in aluminium smelting    383

18.        Minor end-uses for lithium    385

18.1       Sanitization    385

18.2       Organic synthesis    386

18.3       Construction    388

18.4       Alkyd resins    388

18.5       Alloys    391

18.5.1     Aluminium-lithium alloy    391

18.5.1.1   Producers of aluminium-lithium alloys    394

18.5.1.2   Applications for aluminium-lithium alloys    395

18.5.1.3   Consumption of lithium in aluminium-lithium alloys    398

18.5.1.4   Outlook for demand for lithium in aluminium-lithium alloys    398

18.5.2     Magnesium-lithium alloy    400

18.6       Electronics    400

18.7       Analytical agents    402

18.8       Dyestuffs    402

18.9       Metallurgy    402

18.10      Photographic industry    402

18.11      Welding fluxes    402

18.12      Electrochromic glass    403

18.13      Pharmaceuticals    403

18.13.1    Producers of lithium-based pharmaceuticals    404

18.13.2    Production and consumption of lithium-based pharmaceuticals    404

18.13.3    Consumption of lithium in pharmaceuticals    405

18.14      Speciality lithium inorganics    405

19.        Prices of lithium    408

19.1       Technical-grade lithium mineral prices    409

19.2       Chemical-grade spodumene prices    412

19.3       Technical-grade lithium carbonate prices    413

19.4       Battery-grade lithium carbonate    415

19.5       Technical-grade lithium hydroxide prices    416

19.6       Battery-grade lithium hydroxide prices    418

19.7       Lithium chloride prices    419

19.8       Lithium metal prices    420

19.9       Outlook for lithium prices    421

19.9.1     Technical-grade lithium carbonate prices    421

19.9.2     Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices    424

19.9.3     Technical-grade lithium mineral prices    425

19.9.4     Chemical-grade spodumene prices    425

19.9.5     Lithium hydroxide prices    426

List of Tables

Page

Table 1: World: Forecast nominal and real prices for technical-grade lithium carbonate, 2012 to 2017     8

Table 2: Properties of lithium    10

Table 3: Significant lithium minerals    11

Table 4: Major lithium bearing smectite group members    12

Table 5: Brine concentrations at selected deposits    13

Table 6: Lithium reserves by country     15

Table 7: Composition of standard lithium concentrates     22

Table 8: Specifications for lithium carbonate produced by SQM and Rockwood Lithium     28

Table 9: Specifications for lithium carbonate produced by other suppliers     28

Table 10: Battery grade lithium hydroxide product specifications of major producers      29

Table 11: Production of lithium by country and company, 2005 to 2012     35

Table 12: Capacity and production of lithium minerals by company, 2011 to 2012     39

Table 13: Capacity and production of lithium compounds from brine-based producers, 2011 to 2012     40

Table 14: Capacity and production of lithium mineral converters, 2011 to 2012     42

Table 15: Production of lithium compounds from minerals, 2005 to 2012     43

Table 16: Planned expansions as reported by existing lithium mineral producers to 2017     46

Table 17: Potential lithium mineral producers to 2017     47

Table 18: Planned expansions by existing lithium brine producers to 2017     49

Table 19: Potential new lithium brine projects to 2017     50

Table 20: Planned expansions to production capacity for existing and potential mineral conversion plants     51

Table 21: Afghanistan: Spodumene bearing pegmatites identified in Nuristan, Badakhshan, Nangarhar, Lagman and Uruzgan provinces    55

Table 22: Argentina: Exports of lithium carbonate, 2004 to 2012     57

Table 23: Argentina: Exports of lithium chloride, 2004 to 2012     58

Table 24:FMC: Brine reserves at the Salar del Hombre Muerto    58

Table 25: FMC: Production and value of lithium carbonate and chloride at the Salta plant, Argentina 2005 to 2012     59

Table 26: ADY Resources: Salar del Rincón reserve estimation, 2007    60

Table 27: Lithium Americas: Lithium and potash resource estimation for the Cauchari-Olaroz property, July 2012 61

Table 28: Lithium Americas: Lithium and potash reserve estimation for the Cauchari-Olaroz property, July 2012 61

Table 29: Lithium Americas: Estimated capital costs for Lithium carbonate production at the Cauchari-Olaroz project, July 2012 63

Table 30: Lithium Americas: Estimated operating costs for Cauchari-Olaroz project, July 2012 65

Table 31: Galaxy Resources: Resource estimation for the Sal de Vida project, January 2012 66

Table 32: Galaxy Resources: Reserve estimate for the Sal de Vida project, April 2013 67

Table 33: Galaxy Resources: Estimated capital costs for Sal de Vida project, October 2011 68

Table 34: Orocobre: Agreements between Borax Argentina and other lithium companies    70

Table 35: Orocobre: Resource estimation for the Salar de Olaroz project, May 2011 71

Table 36: Orocobre: Assay results of first battery grade lithium carbonate product from the Orocobre pilot plant    72

Table 37: Orocobre: Capital costs for 16,400tpy LCE operation at the Salar de Olaroz, May 2011 73

Table 38: Orocobre: Operating costs for battery grade lithium carbonate for the Salar de Olaroz, May 2011 73

Table 39: Orocobre: Resource estimation for the Salinas Grande project, April 2012 74

Table 40: Orocobre: Averaged assay results from pit sampling of brine at the Guayatoyoc project    75

Table 41: Orocobre: Maiden resource estimation for the Salar de Cauchari project, October 2012 75

Table 42: Rodinia Lithium: Salar de Diablillos resource estimation, March 2011 76

Table 43: Rodinia Lithium: Estimated capital costs for the Salar de Diablillos project    77

Table 44: Rodinia Lithium: Estimated operating costs for the Salar de Diablillos project    77

Table 45: Rodinia Lithium: Other Argentine lithium projects    78

Table 46: Australia: Exports of mineral substances NES (excl. natural micaceous iron oxides) 2005 to 2012     81

Table 47: Australia: Unit value of mineral substances NES (excl. natural micaeous iron oxides) 2005 to 2011     81

Table 48: Talison Lithium: Resource estimation for the Greenbushes deposit, December 2012 83

Table 49: Talison Lithium: Lithium mineral reserve estimation for the Greenbushes deposit,  December 2012    83

Table 50: Talison Lithium: Li, K and Na content of brines, Salares 7 project saline lakes 1998, (ppm)    84

Table 51: Talison Lithium: Li, K and Na content of brines, Salares 7 project saline lakes 2009, (ppm)    84

Table 52: Talison Lithium: Production and sales of lithium mineral concentrates and ores, 2005 to 2011     85

Table 53: Talison Lithium: Standard lithium mineral concentrate product specifications    87

Table 54: Galaxy Resources: Mount Cattlin mineral resource estimate, February 2011 89

Table 55: Galaxy Resources: Mount Cattlin mineral reserve estimate, December 2011 89

Table 56: Galaxy Resources: James Bay mineral resource estimate, November 2010 89

Table 57: Galaxy Resources: Mt. Cattlin mine and plant production, Q3 2010 – Q4 2011    90

Table 58: Reed Resources : Mt Marion resource estimation, July 2011 91

Table 59: Altura: Mineral resource estimation for the Pilgangoora lithium project, October 2012 92

Table 60: Belgium: Trade is lithium carbonate, 2005 to 2012     95

Table 61: Belgium: Trade in lithium hydroxide and oxide, 2005 to 2012     96

Table 62: Salars and Lagunas in Bolivia identified by Gerencia Nacional de Recursos Evaporíticos    97

Table 63: Results of sampling campaign by Université de Liegé and Universidad Tecnica de Oruro at the Salar de Coipasa, 2002    99

Table 64: Assay data for brines intercepted during drilling at the Pastos Grandes Salar, August 2011 100

Table 65: Brazil: Lithium resource estimation by mineral type, 2009    101

Table 66: Brazil: Trade in lithium chemicals and concentrates, 2004 to 2011     102

Table 67: CBL: Production of lithium concentrates and lithium salts, 2005 to 2011    102

Table 68: Arqueana: Production of lithium concentrates, 2008 to 2011    103

Table 69: Canada: Resources estimations for Canadian lithium projects    106

Table 70: Canada: Imports and exports of lithium compounds 2005 to 2012     108

Table 71: TANCO: Spodumene concentrate production 2005 to 2011     109

Table 72: Canada Lithium: Resource estimation for the Quebec Lithium project, December 2011 109

Table 73: Canada Lithium: Reserve estimation for the Quebec Lithium project, December 2011 110

Table 74: Canada Lithium: Estimated capital expenditure for Quebec Lithium project (inc.LiOH and Na2SO4 plant costs), October 2012 111

Table 75 :Canada Lithium: Estimated operating expenditure for Quebec Lithium project, October 2012 111

Table 76: Nemaska Lithium: Resource estimation for the Whabouchi project, June 2011 113

Table 77: Nemaska Lithium: Reserve estimation for the Whabouchi project, October 2012 113

Table 78: Avalon Rare Metals: Separation Rapids NI 43-101 resource and reserve estimation, 1999    116

Table 79: Perilya Ltd: Mineral resource estimation for Moblan deposit, May 2011 117

Table 80: Rock Tech Lithium: Structure of the Georgia Lake project, November 2011 118

Table 81: Rock Tech Lithium: Updated mineral resource estimation for Georgia Lake project, July 2012 119

Table 82: Glen Eagle: Resource estimation for Authier lithium property, January 2012 121

Table 83: Canada: Lithium exploration projects in Canada with uncompleted scoping studies or PFS in October 2012 122

Table 84: Chile: Lithium carbonate, chloride and hydroxide production, 2004 to 2011     128

Table 85: Chile: Special operating licence bidders for the September 2012 auction    129

Table 86: SQM: Majority shareholders of SQM as of December 31st 2011    130

Table 87: SQM: Reserves within brines at the Salar de Atacama project    131

Table 88: SQM: Production, revenue and value per tonne of lithium compounds, 2003 to 2012    132

Table 89: SQM: Specifications for lithium carbonate     133

Table 90: SQM: Specifications for lithium hydroxide     134

Table 91: RWL: Gross tonnage, value and unit value of lithium carbonate exports, 2006 to 2012    137

Table 92: RWL: Gross tonnage, value and unit value of lithium chloride exports, 2006 to 2012    138

Table 93: Li3 Energy: Resource estimation for the Maricunga property, April 2012 140

Table 94: Chile: Exports of lithium carbonate by destination, 2004 to 2011    144

Table 95: Chile: Lithium carbonate export volume, value and unit price by company, 2005 to 2011    144

Table 96: Chile: Lithium chloride exports by destination, 2004 to 2012    145

Table 97: Chile: Lithium hydroxide exports by destination, 2004 to 2012    146

Table 98: China : Estimated resources and reserves of both lithium mineral and brine operations and projects    148

Table 99: China: Production of lithium, 2003 to 2012    149

Table 100: China: Producers of lithium minerals, 2011 to 2012    151

Table 101: China: Production and capacity of Chinese lithium brine operations, 2011    152

Table 102: China: Mineral conversion plant production and production capacity, 2012    154

Table 103: China: Producers of battery grade lithium metal, 2012    154

Table 104: China: Imports and exports of lithium carbonate, 2005 to 2012     155

Table 105: China: Imports and exports of lithium chloride, 2005 to 2012     156

Table 106: China: Imports and exports of lithium hydroxide, 2005 to 2012     157

Table 107: China: Imports and exports of lithium oxide, 2005 to 2012     157

Table 108: Tibet Lithium New Technology Development: Lithium production, 2010 to 2012    158

Table 109: Qinghai CITIC: Lithium carbonate production, 2008 to 2012     160

Table 110:  Dangxiongcuo reserve estimation from 2006 qualifying report    163

Table 111: Jiangxi Western Resources: Lithium Production, 2010    167

Table 112: Sichuan Tianqi: Production and sales of lithium products, 2010 to 2011     169

Table 113: Galaxy Resources: Battery grade lithium carbonate chemical specifications    172

Table 114: KeliberOy: Claims, reservation and mining concessions for lithium projects held by Keliber in Finland, 2012    181

Table 115: France: Imports and exports of lithium carbonate, 2005 to 2012     183

Table 116: France: Imports and exports of lithium hydroxide and oxide, 2005 to 2012     184

Table 117: Germany: Imports and exports of lithium carbonate, 2005 to 2012     184

Table 118: India: Trade in lithium hydroxide and oxides, 2005 to 2012     187

Table 119: India: Trade in lithium carbonate, 2005 to 2012     187

Table 120: India: Producers of lithium chemicals    188

Table 121: Japan: Trade in lithium carbonate, 2005 to 2012     190

Table 122: Japan: Trade in lithium hydroxide and oxide, 2005 to 2012     191

Table 123: Mexico: LitioMex S.A. concessions and resource estimations    194

Table 124: Namibia: Production of lithium minerals, 1990 to 1998     197

Table 125: Netherlands: Trade in lithium carbonate, 2005 to 2012     198

Table 126: Netherlands: Trade in lithium hydroxide and oxide, 2005 to 2012     199

Table 127: SociedadMineira de Pegmatites: Production of Lithium, 2004 to 2012     200

Table 128: Russia: Deposits of lithium    201

Table 129: Russia: Imports of lithium carbonate, 2002 to 2012     204

Table 130: Russia: Exports of lithium hydroxide, 2002 to 2012     204

Table 131: Russia: Imports of lithium hydroxide, 2002 to 2012     205

Table 132: South Korea: Trade in lithium carbonate, 2005 to 2012     207

Table 133: South Korea: Trade in lithium hydroxide, 2005 to 2012     207

Table 134: Spain: Imports of lithium compounds, 2005 to 2012     208

Table 135: Minera Del Duero: Production of lepidolite in Spain, 2003 to 2011     208

Table 136: Inferred mineral resource estimation for the Doade-Presquerias project, October 2011 209

Table 137: Taiwan: Imports of lithium carbonate, 2005 to 2012     210

Table 138: UK: Imports of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxides and oxides 2005 to 2012     211

Table 139: USA: Imports and exports of lithium carbonate 2005 to 2012     213

Table 140: USA: Imports and exports of lithium oxide and hydroxide 2005 to 2012     214

Table 141: FMC: Product range    218

Table 142: WLC: Resource estimation for the Kings Valley project, January 2012 219

Table 143: WLC: Reserve estimation for the Kings Valley project, December 2011 220

Table 144: WLC: Estimated operating and capital costs for ‘Case 1′ and ‘Case 2′ scenarios at the Kings Valley project.    221

Table 145: USA: Lithium exploration projects yet to reach scoping study or PFS stage in development    224

Table 146: Zimbabwe: South African imports of mineral substances from Zimbabwe, 2005 to 2012     227

Table 147: Bikita Minerals: Mine production and lithium content 2003 to 2011    228

Table 148: World: Total exports of lithium carbonate, 2005 to 2012     230

Table 149: World: Total imports of lithium carbonate, 2005 to 2012     232

Table 150: World: Total exports of lithium hydroxide and oxide, 2005 to 2012     234

Table 151: World: Total imports of lithium hydroxide and oxide, 2005 to 2012     236

Table 152: World: Major importers and exporters of lithium chloride, 2005 to 2012     237

Table 153: World: Exports of lithium minerals by major lithium mineral producing nations (excl. China), 2005 to 2012     238

Table 154: Chile: Exports of lithium chloride brine1 by SQM to China, 2005 to 2012     238

Table 155: World: Consumption of lithium by end-use, 2002, 2007 and 2012    240

Table 156: World: Estimated consumption of lithium by country/region, 2002, 2007 and 2012     244

Table 157: World: Consumption of lithium by end-use, by product, 2012    246

Table 158: World: Forecast consumption of lithium by end-use, 2012 to 2017     248

Table 159: Japan: Producers of lithium-ion battery cathode materials, 2012    265

Table 160: South Korea: Producers of lithium-ion battery cathode materials, 2012    265

Table 161: China: Producers of lithium-ion battery cathode materials, 2012    266

Table 162: World: Producers of lithium salts for electrolytes, 2012    267

Table 163: World: Lithium battery consumption in 3C products, 2012    269

Table 164: World: Lithium battery consumption in power devices and motive power, 2012    271

Table 165: World: Lithium battery consumption in heavy duty applications, 2012    272

Table 166: World: Lithium battery consumption in transport applications, 2012    274

Table 167: World: Lithium consumption in rechargeable lithium batteries end-use, 2012    275

Table 168: World: Lithium consumption in NiMH and NiCd batteries, 2012    275

Table 169: World: Consumption of lithium in rechargeable batteries by type, 2007 to 2012     277

Table 170: Japan: Consumption of lithium in rechargeable batteries, 2007 to 2012     277

Table 171: World: Consumption of lithium in rechargeable batteries by country, 2007 to 2012     278

Table 172: World: Rechargeable lithium battery demand by market, 2012 and 2017    278

Table 173: World: Comparison of EV production estimates in 2017 by industry consultant    280

Table 174: World: Forecast rechargeable battery consumption in EVs, 2017    281

Table 175: World: Lithium consumption in rechargeable lithium batteries by end-use, 2017    281

Table 176: World: Forecast demand for lithium in rechargeable lithium batteries, 2012 to 2017     282

Table 177: World: Forecast demand for lithium in rechargeable batteries by battery type, 2012 to 2017     282

Table 178: World: Forecast demand for lithium in rechargeable batteries by product type, 2007 to 2012     283

Table 179: Typical whiteware body compositions     285

Table 180: World: Production of ceramic tiles by leading country, 2007 to 2012     287

Table 181: World: Consumption of ceramic tiles by leading countries, 2007 to 2011     289

Table 182: World: Leading ceramic tile manufacturing companies, 2010    290

Table 183: World: Leading sanitaryware manufacturing companies, 2010    292

Table 184: World: Consumption of lithium in ceramics, 2012    300

Table 185: World: Consumption of lithium in ceramics, 2007 to 2012     300

Table 186: World: Forecast demand for lithium in ceramics, 2012 to 2017     301

Table 187: Glass-ceramic matrices    302

Table 188: Compositions of commercial glass-ceramics    303

Table 189: Japan: Consumption of lithium carbonate in glass-ceramics, 2007 to 2012     306

Table 190: World: Consumption of lithium in glass-ceramics by end-use and product type, 2012     307

Table 191: World: Consumption of lithium in glass-ceramics, 2007 to 2012     307

Table 192: World: Forecast demand for lithium in glass-ceramics, 2012 to 2017     308

Table 193: Properties of commercial greases    311

Table 194: World: Producers of lubricating grease    315

Table 195: World: Forecast demand for lithium in greases, 2012 to 2017    322

Table 196: Typical batch compositions for glass by type     323

Table 197: Main sources of lithium used in glass    324

Table 198: EU: Production of glass by type, 1998 to 2012     328

Table 199: USA: Production of container glass, 1999 to 2008    328

Table 200: Typical chemical composition of types of textile-grade fibreglass     329

Table 201: World: Estimated consumption of lithium in glass, 2012     331

Table 202: World: Consumption of lithium in glass, 2007 to 2012     331

Table 203: World: Forecast demand for lithium in glass, 2012 to 2017     332

Table 204: World: Consumption of lithium in continuous casting mould powders, 2007 to 2012     336

Table 205: Japan: Consumption of lithium in fluxes, 2007 to 2012     336

Table 206: World: Forecast demand for lithium in casting powders, 2012 to 2017     337

Table 207: Microstructure of different types of polybutadienes    339

Table 208: World: Producers of SSBR, BR and SBC, 2012    343

Table 209: World: Planned new/expanded SBR, BR and SBC plants    344

Table 210: World: Forecast demand for lithium in synthetic rubber and thermoplastics, 2011 to 2017    349

Table 211: World: Capacity for lithium bromide production, end-2012     355

Table 212: Japan: Consumption of lithium bromide, 2007 to 2012    356

Table 213: World: Forecast demand for lithium in air treatment, 2012 to 2017    361

Table 214: Characteristics of primary lithium batteries    363

Table 215: Japan: Production of primary batteries by type, 1998 to 2012     367

Table 216: World: Trade in lithium primary batteries, 2007 to 2011     369

Table 217: Primary lithium batteries and their material compositions    371

Table 218: Specifications for battery-grade lithium metal     371

Table 219: World: Producers of battery-grade lithium metal, end-2012    372

Table 220: Japan: Consumption of lithium in primary lithium batteries, 2007 to 2012    375

Table 221: Japan: Unit consumption of lithium in primary batteries, 2007 to 2012    375

Table 222: World: Imports of battery-grade lithium metal, 2007 to 2012    376

Table 223: World: Forecast demand for lithium in primary batteries, 2012 to 2017    377

Table 224: Effects of additives and temperatures on properties of molten cryolite    379

Table 225: World: Aluminium smelters using Söderberg technology, end-2012    381

Table 226: World: Forecast demand for lithium in aluminium smelting, 2012 to 2017     384

Table 227: World: Consumption of lithium in other end-uses, 2007, 2012 and 2017     385

Table 228: Examples of uses for lithium in organic synthesis    387

Table 229: Physical properties of Al-Li alloys    392

Table 230: Chemical composition of Al-Li alloys     393

Table 231: Use of Al-Li alloys in selected aircraft    397

Table 232: World: Forecast demand for lithium in aluminium-lithium alloys, 2012 to 2017    399

Table 233: Properties of lithium niobate and lithium tantalite    401

Table 234: Applications for SAW components    401

Table 235: Applications for speciality inorganic lithium compounds    406

Table 236: Prices of lithium minerals, 2000-2013     410

Table 237: Comparison of prices for lithium minerals and carbonate, 2004 to 2012    411

Table 238: Comparison of prices for chemical-grade spodumene concentrate and lithium carbonate, 2004 to 2012    412

Table 239: Comparison of technical- and battery- grade lithium carbonate prices, 2004 to 2012     416

Table 240: Average values of exports/imports of lithium oxides and hydroxides by leading exporting/importing country, 2004 to 2012     417

Table 241: Average values of exports of lithium chloride by leading producing country, 2004 to 2012    420

Table 242: Average values of exports of lithium metal by leading producing country, 2004 to 2012    421

Table 243: World: Forecast nominal and real prices for technical-grade lithium carbonate, 2012 to 2017     423

Table 244: World: Forecast nominal prices for technical-grade lithium carbonate and chemical-grade lithium minerals, 2012 to 2017     425

Table 245: World: Forecast nominal prices for technical-grade lithium carbonate and technical-grade lithium hydroxide, 2012 to 2017     426

List of Figures

Figure 1: Lithium product flow chart and main end-uses, 2012     1

Figure 2: Consumption of lithium by end-use, 2000 to 2012     2

Figure 3: Production of lithium by country, 2000 to 2012     4

Figure 4: Price history of lithium carbonate, 1990 to 2012    6

Figure 5: World: Forecast real prices for technical-grade lithium carbonate, 2012 to 2017     9

Figure 6: Overview of lithium production    16

Figure 7: Extraction and processing of brines from the Salar de Atacama, Chile and Silver Peak, Nevada by Rockwood Lithium    18

Figure 8: Flow sheet showing the processing of brines at Salar de Carmen by SQM    19

Figure 9: Simplified flow sheet of the Li SX™ method patented by Bateman Lithium Projects    21

Figure 10: Simplified mineral concentrate production flow sheet for a typical hard rock lithium operation    22

Figure 11: Simplified flow sheet for lithium carbonate production from spodumene mineral concentrate using the acid-roast method    24

Figure 12: Simplified flow sheet for lithium hydroxide and lithium hydroxide monohydrate production from spodumene mineral concentrate using the lime-roast method    25

Figure 13: Simplified flow sheet for lithium carbonate production from hectorite clay developed by Western Lithium    27

Figure 14: Mining and milling costs for hard rock lithium mineral operations/projects    31

Figure 15: Lithium carbonate cash operating costs, 2012    32

Figure 16:  Potential new producers production costs    33

Figure 17: World: Production of lithium by country, 2000 to 2012     34

Figure 18: Production of lithium from mineral and brine sources, 2005 to 2012     37

Figure 19: Production of lithium minerals by company, 2012     38

Figure 20: Production of lithium from brines by country, 2005 to 2012     40

Figure 21: Planned production capacity and consumption for lithium, 2012 to 2017     45

Figure 22: Forecast production and consumption of lithium, 2012 to 2017     54

Figure 23: Pilot plant flow sheet developed for Lithium Americas at SGS Mineral Services    62

Figure 24: Brazil: Production of Lithium products 2005 to 2010     101

Figure 25: SQM: Lithium sales by destination 2011, 2009, 2007 and 2005     135

Figure 26: SQM: Destination of lithium carbonate exports, 2006 to 2011     136

Figure 27: China: Location of mineral conversion and lithium chemical/metal plants in China, 2012    153

Figure 28: Japan: Imports of lithium carbonate, hydroxide & oxide and combined LCE, 2005 to 2012     191

Figure 29: World: Leading exporters of lithium carbonate, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012    231

Figure 30: World: Leading importers of lithium carbonate, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012    233

Figure 31: World: Leading exporters of lithium hydroxide and oxides, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012    235

Figure 32: World: Growth in consumption of lithium, 2000 to 2012    239

Figure 33: World: Consumption of lithium by end-use, 2012    240

Figure 34: World: Consumption of lithium by end-use, 2000 to 2012     241

Figure 35: World: Consumption of lithium by end-use, 2000 to 2012     241

Figure 36: World: Estimated consumption of lithium by country/region, 2002, 2007 and 2012     244

Figure 37: World: Consumption of lithium by product, 2012     245

Figure 38: World: Consumption of lithium by type, 2000 to 2012     247

Figure 39: World: Historical and forecast consumption of lithium by end-use, 2007 to 2017     248

Figure 40: World: Forecast consumption of lithium by form, 2007, 2012 and 2017     252

Figure 41: Specific energy and energy density of rechargeable batteries    253

Figure 42: Lithium-ion battery schematic    254

Figure 43: Lithium metal polymer battery schematic    256

Figure 44: Lithium-sulphur cell schematic    257

Figure 45: Lithium-air cell schematic    258

Figure 46: World: Production of rechargeable batteries1, 1995 to 2012     259

Figure 47: World: Production of rechargeable batteries1, 1995 to 2012     260

Figure 48: World: Rechargeable lithium battery production by country, 2000 to 2012     260

Figure 49: Lithium-ion battery materials value chain    263

Figure 50: World: Production of lithium cathode materials by type, 2000 to 2012    264

Figure 51: World: Market for rechargeable lithium batteries by end-use, 2002, 2007 and 2012     268

Figure 52: World: Market for rechargeable lithium batteries by end-use, 2012     269

Figure 53: World: Production of rechargeable batteries and consumption of lithium, 2000 to 2012    276

Figure 54: World: Market for rechargeable lithium batteries by end-use, 2002 to 2017     279

Figure 55: World: Ceramic tile production by region, 2007 and 2012     288

Figure 56: World: Sanitaryware production by region/country, 2010    291

Figure 57: World: Production of tableware by country/region, 2008    293

Figure 58: USA: Shipments of cookware, bakeware and kitchenware, 2001 to 2010    295

Figure 59: World: Shipments of white goods by region, 2000 to 2020    296

Figure 60: World: Year-on-year growth in construction spending and GDP, 2000 to 2017    298

Figure 61: World: Production of lubricating grease by additive type, 2011     312

Figure 62: World: Production of lubricating grease by type, 2000 to 2012    313

Figure 63: World: Production of lithium grease by region/country and by type,  2000 and 2011     314

Figure 64: World: Output of automobiles by region, 2000 to 2012    318

Figure 65: World: Deliveries of commercial aircraft, 2000 to 2012    318

Figure 66: World: Shipbuilding deliveries, 2000 to 2012    319

Figure 67: World: Relative industrial and transport output and lithium grease production, 2002 to 2011    320

Figure 68: World: Production of grease and consumption of lithium, 2000 to 2012    321

Figure 69: World: Estimated production of glass by type, 2012    326

Figure 70: World: Production of container glass by region/country, 2012    326

Figure 71: World: Consumption of glass packaging by region, 2011    327

Figure 72: World: Production of continuously cast steel by region, 1998 to 2012     335

Figure 73: World: Capacity for synthetic rubber production by country/region, 2012    340

Figure 74: World: Capacity for BR, ESBR and SSBR rubber by country/region, end-2011    341

Figure 75: World: SBC capacity by region/country, end-2010    341

Figure 76: World: Production of synthetic rubber by region, 1996 to 2011     342

Figure 77: World: Consumption of synthetic rubber by type, 2012    345

Figure 78: World: consumption of BR by end-use, 2010    346

Figure 79: World: Consumption of SBC by region/country, 2010    347

Figure 80: Consumption of SBC by end-use, 2007    347

Figure 81: World: Production of absorption chillers, 2003 to 2012    352

Figure 82: World: Consumption of lithium bromide in air treatment, 2001 to 2012    356

Figure 83: Specific energy and energy density of primary batteries    362

Figure 84: Primary and secondary battery gravimetric energy density    365

Figure 85: World: Production of primary lithium batteries by country, 1998 to 2012     366

Figure 86: Primary lithium battery schematics    370

Figure 87: World: Demand for lithium metal in primary batteries, 2000 to 2012    376

Figure 88: World: Aluminium output by type and lithium consumption, 2000 to 2012    383

Figure 89: World: Consumption of alkyd-based paints and coatings, 2010    390

Figure 90: Development of Al-Li alloys    392

Figure 91: World: Deliveries of commercial aircraft and lithium consumption, 2007 to 2019    399

Figure 92: Price history of lithium carbonate, 1990 to 2012    408

Figure 93: Compound annual prices of lithium minerals, 2000 to 2013     411

Figure 94: Prices for technical-grade lithium carbonate, 1999 to 2012     414

Figure 95: Prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate, 1999 to 2012     415

Figure 96: Comparison of lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate prices, 2000 to 2012     418

Figure 97: Japan: Quarterly average import value of lithium hydroxide from the USA, 2008 to 2012     419

Figure 98: World: Forecast nominal prices for technical-grade lithium carbonate, 2012 to 2017     423

Figure 99: World: Forecast real prices for technical-grade lithium carbonate, 2012 to 2017     424

For further information on this report, please contact Robert Baylis (rbaylis@roskill.co.uk).

SOURCE Roskill Information Services

 

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Oando Energy Resources Announces Additional 2,500 bopd Production Capacity From Ebendo Field

Posted on 16 May 2013 by Africa Business

About Oando Energy Resources Inc. (OER)

OER currently has a broad suite of producing, development and exploration properties in the Gulf of Guinea (predominantly in Nigeria) with current production of approximately 5,205 bopd from the Abo Field in OML 125 and the Ebendo Field. OER has been specifically structured to take advantage of current opportunities for indigenous companies in Nigeria, which currently has the largest population in Africa, and one of the largest oil and gas resources in Africa.

 

Oando Energy Resources Inc. (“OER” or the “Company“) (TSX: OER), a company focused on oil exploration and production in Nigeria, today announced results from the successful completion and testing of the Ebendo 5 well. The completion and testing of the Ebendo 5 well, which is expected to contribute an additional 2,500 barrels of oil per day (“bopd”) gross (1,069 bopd net to OER), follows the successful resumption of 3,200 bopd gross (1,368 bopd net to OER) production on the Ebendo field, as was announced on April 24, 2013.

“We’re extremely pleased to announce the successful completion of the Ebendo 5 well drilling programme, increasing our net capacity by 1,069 bopd,” said Pade Durotoye , CEO of OER. “Ebendo currently has a total production capacity of up to 7,000 bopd, but is currently subject to takeaway capacity restrictions as a result of the Kwale-Akri pipeline. In light of this, we are increasing our efforts to establish our alternative evacuation pipeline, the 53 Kilometer, 45kboepd Umugini pipeline, that will further support the development of this field and reduce our dependence on one evacuation pipeline.”

The Ebendo 5 well was spudded as a deviated appraisal/development well on October 12, 2012, mainly to appraise the intermediate reservoirs encountered by the earlier Ebendo 4 well. The Ebendo 5 well was drilled to a total vertical depth (TVD) of 11,513ft and encountered eight hydrocarbon bearing sands. A drill stem test was successfully completed on two of these sands (XVIIIc and XVIIId). Sand XVIIId flowed for 18 hours and 30 minutes during the final flow test on four choke sizes. On average, it flowed on choke 28/64″ for 3 hours and 30 minutes, with an average oil and gas rate of 1,592 bopd and 2.45 mmscf/day, respectively. Sand XVIIIc flowed for 15 hours and 50 minutes during the final flow test on three choke sizes. On average, it flowed on choke 24/64″ for 8 hours and 23 minutes, with an average oil and gas rate of 840 bopd and 4.62 mmscf/day, respectively. Oil with API gravities of 47.2 degrees and 46.4 degrees were recovered from levels XVIIIc and XVIIId, respectively. Testing of sand XV is planned to occur during production, as there was a mechanical failure during testing of this sand after the completion of the well. However, from Modular Formation Dynamic Testing (MDT) pressure sampling, the fluid gradient in level XV was 0.272 pressure per foot (psi/ft), which is indicative of oil, there was no appreciable steady decline in the pressures during the Test.

The Ebendo 5 well was dually completed and sand XV will be produced through the short string while sands XVIIIc and XVIIId will be produced through the long string via a sliding sleeve. The Acme Rig-5 was released on April 17, 2013 from the Ebendo 5 well site.

The Company further announced that a new rig, the Deutag T-26, has been mobilised and a sixth well (the Ebendo 6 well) was spudded on April 18, 2013. TVD for the Ebendo 6 well is planned to be at 10,680 ft. To date, the Ebendo 6 well has been drilled to a total vertical depth of 6,231 ft. The results from this drilling programme will enable further appraisal of the shallow reservoirs encountered in the last two wells.

As pressure transient analysis or well-test interpretation has not been carried out, all results disclosed in this press release should be regarded as preliminary and are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or ultimate recovery. The results will be updated when additional data becomes available.

 

SOURCE Oando Energy Resources Inc.

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GSMA Establishes Office In Nairobi To Support Burgeoning African Telecoms Market

Posted on 15 May 2013 by Africa Business

Mobile Connections in Sub-Saharan Africa Increase 20 Per Cent to 500 Million in 2013 and Are Expected to Increase by an Additional 50 Per Cent by 2018

iHub is Nairobi‘s Innovation Hub for the technology community, which is an open space for the technologists, investors, tech companies and hackers in the area. This space is a tech community facility with a focus on young entrepreneurs, web and mobile phone programmers, designers and researchers. It is part open community workspace (co-working), part vector for investors and VCs and part incubator. More information can be found here: http://www.ihub.co.ke/about

About the GSMA
The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide. Spanning more than 220 countries, the GSMA unites nearly 800 of the world’s mobile operators with more than 230 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset makers, software companies, equipment providers and Internet companies, as well as organisations in industry sectors such as financial services, healthcare, media, transport and utilities. The GSMA also produces industry-leading events such as the Mobile World Congress and Mobile Asia Expo.


NAIROBI, Kenya, May 15, 2013 /PRNewswire/ – The GSMA today announced that it has opened a permanent office in Nairobi, Kenya. The office will be based in the heart of Nairobi‘s Innovation Hub (iHub) for the technology community and will enable the GSMA to work even more closely with its members and other industry stakeholders to extend the reach and socio-economic benefits of mobile throughout Africa.

“It is an exciting time to launch our new office in Africa, as the region is an increasingly vibrant and critical market for the mobile industry, representing over 10 per cent of the global market,” said Anne Bouverot , Director General, GSMA. “The rapid pace of mobile adoption has delivered an explosion of innovation and huge economic benefits in the region, directly contributing US$ 32 billion to the Sub-Saharan African economy, or 4.4 per cent of GDP. With necessary spectrum allocations and transparent regulation, the mobile industry could also fuel the creation of 14.9 million new jobs in the region between 2015 and 2020.”

According to the latest GSMA’s Wireless Intelligence data, total mobile connections in Sub-Saharan Africa passed the 500 million mark in Q1 2013, increasing by about 20 per cent year-on-year. Connections are expected to grow by a further 50 per cent, or 250 million connections, over the next five years which requires greater regulatory certainty to foster investment and release of additional harmonised spectrum for mobile.

The region currently accounts for about two-thirds of connections in Africa but the amount of spectrum allocated to mobile services in Africa is among the lowest worldwide. Governments in Sub-Saharan Africa risk undermining their broadband and development goals unless more spectrum is made available. In particular, the release of the Digital Dividend spectrum – which has the ideal characteristics for delivering mobile broadband, particularly to rural populations – should be a priority.

The region also has some of the highest levels of mobile internet usage globally. In Zimbabwe and Nigeria, mobile accounts for over half of all web traffic at 58.1 per cent and 57.9 per cent respectively, compared to a 10 per cent global average. 3G penetration levels are forecast to reach a quarter of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2017 (from six per cent in 2012) as the use of mobile-specific services develops.

However, despite the high number of connections, rapid growth and mobile internet usage, mobile penetration among individuals remains relatively low. Fewer than 250 million people had subscribed to a mobile service in the region, putting unique subscriber penetration at 30 per cent, meaning that more than two-thirds of the population have yet to acquire their first mobile phone. Clearly, there is an important opportunity for the mobile industry to bring connectivity, access to information and services to the people in this region.

The mobile industry contributes approximately 3.5 million full-time jobs in the region. This has also spurred a wave of technology and content innovation with more than 50 ‘innovation hubs’ created to develop local skills and content in the field of ICT services, including the Limbe Labs in Cameroon, the iHub in Kenya and Hive Colab in Uganda.

Of particular note is the role of Kenya as the global leader in mobile money transfer services via M-PESA, a service launched by the country’s largest mobile operator Safaricom in 2007. What started as a simple way to extend banking services to the unbanked citizens of Kenya has now evolved into a mobile payment system based on accounts held by the operator, with transactions authorised and recorded in real time using secure SMS. Since its launch, M-PESA has grown to reach 15 million registered users and contributes 18 per cent of Safaricom’s total revenue.

To support this huge increase in innovation, the mobile industry has invested around US$ 16.5 billion over the past five years (US$ 2.8 billion in 2011 alone) across the five key countries in the region, mainly directed towards the expansion of network capacity. At the same time, given the exponential growth, Sub-Saharan Africa faces a looming ‘capacity and coverage crunch’ in terms of available mobile spectrum and the GSMA is working with operators and governments to address this critical issue.

GSMA research has found that by releasing the Digital Dividend and 2.6GHz spectrum by 2015, the governments of Sub-Saharan Africa could increase annual GDP by US$82 billion by 2025 and annual government tax revenues by US$18 billion and add up to 27 million jobs by 2025. In many Sub-Saharan African countries, mobile broadband is the only possible route to deliver the Internet to citizens and the current spectrum allocations across the region generally lag behind those of other countries.

“A positive and supportive regulatory environment and sufficient spectrum allocation is critical to the further growth of mobile in Africa,” continued Ms. Bouverot. “I am confident that now that we have a physical presence in Africa, we will be able to work together with our members to put the conditions in place that will facilitate the expansion of mobile, bringing important connectivity and services to all in the region.”

For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate website at www.gsma.com or Mobile World Live, the online portal for the mobile communications industry, at www.mobileworldlive.com.

SOURCE GSMA

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Satellite ultra-broadband in Europe & Africa

Posted on 15 May 2013 by Africa Business

NEW YORK, May 15, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:

Satellite ultra-broadband in Europe & Africa

http://www.reportlinker.com/p01029508/Satellite-ultra-broadband-in-Europe–Africa.html#utm_source=prnewswire&utm_medium=pr&utm_campaign=Broadband

In this report, IDATE identifies the latest developments and major trends in the broadband and ultra-fast broadband markets. After a detailed analysis of the various terrestrial networks and their coverage, it examines satellite technology and the opportunities for positioning it as a complementary service to terrestrial networks to reduce the digital divides that currently exist in Europe and Africa.

Region: Europe: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Eastern Europe, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, TurkeyAfrica: Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Rep., Chad, Congo, Dem. Rep., Congo, Rep., Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eriteria, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe.

Contents • Part 1

Recalling the objectives of the Digital Agenda

• Part 2

Status of broadband market in Europe

• Part 3

Status of ultra-broadband market in Europe

• Part 4

Status of satellite broadband market in Europe

• Part 5

Satellite operator strategies

• Part 6

IDATE’s assessment and market forecasts up to 2017

• Part 7

Introduction to Africa

• Part 8

Status of broadband market in Africa

• Part 9

Satellite operator strategies

• Part 10

IDATE’s assessment and market forecasts up to 2017

• In this report, IDATE identifies the latest developments and major trends in the broadband and ultra-fast broadband markets.

• After a detailed analysis of the various terrestrial networks and their coverage, it examines satellite technology and the opportunities for positioning it as a complementary service to terrestrial networks to reduce the digital divides that currently exist in Europe and Africa.

Recalling the objectives of the Digital Agenda 9• Digital Agenda objectives are being met for basic broadband 10• Objectives of national plans diverging from Digital Agenda for ultra-broadband 112. Status of broadband market in Europe 12• DSL network coverage is improving 13• Rural coverage still needs to progress 14• As a consequence of the DAE, bitrates are improving fast 15• Competition from mobile networks gathers pace 163. Status of ultra-broadband market in Europe 17• Migration to ultra-fast broadband continues on the fixed market… 18• Adoption among households remains low 19• LTE is now launched in most European countries 20• Mobile operators are now tackling the residential fixed market 21• Towards the era of the Gbps 224. Status of satellite broadband market in Europe 23• Some

Figures

on satellite broadband consumers 24• Satellite access solutions are highly competitive 25• Satellite access solutions are tailored to tackle under-served terrestrial markets 26• Full satellite triple-play packages can be proposed 27• 5. Satellite operator strategies in Europe 28• Eutelsat 29• SES 31• Avanti 33• 6. IDATE’s assessment and market forecasts for Europe 34• 7. Introduction to Africa 36• A market with several barriers to entry 37• The fast deployment of submarine cables is a game changer 38• On land, fibre backbone networks are also being deployed 39• Impact of fibre deployment on satellite bandwidth princing 40• 8. Status of broadband market in Africa 41• Africa has less than 5% of world users 42• Fixed broadband prices are unsustainable 43• Mobile telephony is becoming the entry point for Internet access 44• Mobile broadband is progressing rapidly 45• Mobile broadband pricing is decreasing 46• 9. Satellite operator strategies in Africa 47• YahSat 48• SES and Eutelsat 49• 10. IDATE’s assessement and market forecasts for Africa 50• IDATE’s assessement and market forecats up to 2017 51• Who are we? 52

Figures

• Figure 1: Fixed broadband penetration in Europe 10• Figure 2: Digital agenda objectives 11• Figure 3: Total DSL network coverage in Europe, end-2011 (% of population) 13• Figure 4: Rural DSL network coverage in Europe, end-2011 (% of population) 14• Figure 5: Fixed broadband lines by speed, 2008-2012 15• Figure 6: Fixed broadband lines by speed, January 2012 15• Figure 7: Total HSPA coverage in Europe, end of 2011 16• Figure 8: Rural HSPA coverage in Europe, end of 2011 16• Figure 9: FTTx network coverage, end-2011 18• Figure 10: FTTH/B adoption, YE 2012 19• Figure 11: Other FTTx technologies adoption, YE 2012 19• Figure 12: Timetable for LTE spectrum in Western Europe 20• Figure 13: Evolution of LTE coverage in Portugal following use of the 800 MHz band 20• Figure 14: HomeFusion service offered by Verizon Wireless 21• Figure 15: LTE service for homes offered by TeliaSonera 21• Figure 16: Evolution of fixed broadband technologies up to 2030 22• Figure 17: LTE-Advanced performance 22• Figure 18: Bandwidth consumption, per subscriber 24• Figure 19: Bandwidth consumption, by application 24• Figure 20: Evolution of satellite broadband offering for basic package 25• Figure 21 : Price change of a broadband satellite reception terminal 25• Figure 22: Positioning of some satellite broadband offerings in France(as of February 2013) 26• Figure 23: In the USA, ViaSat and Hughes tackle 26• Figure 24: Dishnet satellite triple-play packages being offered by Dish (based on HughesNet Gen4 service) in the USA 27• Figure 25: Satellite broadband terminal proposed by Eutelsat with TV reception capability 27• Figure 26: Ka-Sat coverage 29• Figure 27: Selected packages based on Ka-Sat 29• Figure 28: Evolution of Tooway subscriber base 30• Figure 29: Evolution of Tooway download speeds 30• Figure 30: Hybrid vision of SES 31• Figure 31: Broadband for communities (launched in 2011) 31• Figure 32: Evolution of ASTRA2Connect subscribers 32• Figure 33: Evolution of ASTRA2Connect download speeds 32• Figure 34: Avanti coverage in Europe (Hylas-1 satellite) 33• Figure 35: Satellite broadband packages distributed by irish distributor, Qsat (downlink speeds from 4 to 10 Mbps) 33• Figure 36: Forecast of residential subscriptions to a two-way ultrabroadband satellite solution in Europe, 2013-2017 35• Figure 37: Literacy rates in Africa 37• Figure 38: PC penetration in Africa 37• Figure 39: Evolution of submarine cable deployments in Africa 38• Figure 40: Map of terrestrial fibre backbones in Africa, YE 2012 39• Figure 41: E1 pricing for a selection of African countries, 2012 39• Figure 42: Excerpt from Seacom commercial brochure 40• Figure 43: Average evolution of bandwidth prices over 2009-2012 40• Figure 44: Fixed broadband access penetration in Africa, end 2012 42• Figure 45: Fixed broadband penetration compared with literacy rate 42• Figure 46: Price of fixed broadband subscriptions based on per capita GDP 43• Figure 47: African mobile penetration, as of YE 2012 44• Figure 48: Top 5 African mobile markets, at YE 2012 44• Figure 49: Status of 3G, as of February 2013 45• Figure 50: Top 5 African 3G markets, at YE 2012 45• Figure 51: Monthly broadband basket, YE 2011 46• Figure 52: YahClick coverage 48• Figure 53: Eutelsat IP Easy coverage 49• Figure 54: Satellite broadband packages being offered as of year-end 2012 by Get2Net (SES ASTRA2Connect) 49• Figure 55: Forecast of residential subscriptions to a two-way ultrabroadband satellite solution in Africa, 2013-2017 51• Table 1: Basic coverage national objectives, in selected countries 10• Table 2: Objectives of national broadband plans, in selected countries 11• Table 3: Electrification rates in Africa 37• Table 4: Selection of mobile broadband basket (prepaid handsetbased), YE 2011 46• Table 5: Array of speeds offered by Vox Telecom in South Africa and Coolink in Nigeria (as of February 2013) 488

To order this report:Broadband Industry: Satellite ultra-broadband in Europe & Africa

Contact Clare: clare@reportlinker.com
US:(339) 368 6001
Intl:+1 339 368 6001

 

SOURCE Reportlinker

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Sarama Resources Continues to Consolidate its Position at the South Houndé Project in Burkina Faso

Posted on 15 May 2013 by Africa Business

TSX-V Ticker: SWA
SWA.WT

VANCOUVER, May 15, 2013 /PRNewswire/ – Sarama Resources Limited (“Sarama” or the “Company“) is pleased to report that it has been granted three new exploration permits in Burkina Faso, including one adjacent to the Company’s flagship South Houndé Project, which brings the Company’s exploration landholding in this prospective region to 1,014km².

Highlights

  • Three new exploration permits totalling 240km² granted, expanding Sarama’s total exploration land package in Burkina Faso to 3,339km².
  • The grant of a 127km² exploration permit adjacent to Sarama’s Tankoro exploration property, provides Sarama a commanding presence in the geologically prospective Houndé Belt, with a total landholding of 1,014km².
  • The grant of the Youngou Est and Nianie exploration permits complements Sarama’s existing Youngou exploration property, which borders the Youga mine of Endeavour Mining Corp in the central south of Burkina Faso, bringing the Company’s total landholding in the project area to 363km².
  • Reconnaissance exploration programs to commence in second half of 2013.

Grant of Bini Exploration Permit

Sarama has been granted new exploration permits for the Bini, Youngou Est and Nianie properties by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, bringing the Company’s total exploration property interests in Burkina Faso to 3,339km² (refer Figure 1).

The 127km² Bini exploration property (“Bini“) further consolidates Sarama’s position in the highly prospective Houndé Belt, which hosts the 7.8Moz, 170koz per annum Mana gold mine of Semafo Inc and the 2.2Moz Houndé gold project of Endeavour Mining Corp.  Bini is located centrally within the belt and is adjacent to Sarama’s Tankoro exploration property where the Company has intersected significant gold mineralisation over a 1.9km strike length at the MM Prospect (refer Figure 2).

The property is underlain by a sequence of meta-sedimentary and volcanic rocks and is interpreted to contain north-north-east trending structures, which are thought to be one of the controls on the mineralisation encountered at the Company’s MM Prospect.  Sarama anticipates commencing first-pass reconnaissance exploration activities on the property in the second half of 2013.

The exploration permit gives Sarama the exclusive right to explore for gold and associated minerals during an initial term of 3 years.  Subject to certain statutory obligations being met, the permit is renewable for a further two 3-year terms, after which time, the permit will be eligible for conversion to an exploitation permit.

Figure 1:    Sarama’s Exploration Properties in Burkina Faso

Figure 2:    Sarama’s Exploration Properties in South-West Burkina Faso

Grant of Youngou Est and Nianie Exploration Permits

The Youngou Est and Nianie exploration properties, covering areas of 95km² and 18km² respectively, lie in the extreme south of central Burkina Faso (Figure 3).  Being proximal to Sarama’s existing Youngou exploration property, the permit grants bring Sarama’s landholding in the project area to 363km².

The properties are underlain by volcano-sedimentary and gneissic rocks with the prospective sequence arranged along a north-east striking trend bounded by granite.  The 90,000oz per annum Youga gold mine of  Endeavour Mining Corp is located immediately adjacent to Sarama’s property group and within the same lithological sequence, illustrating the prospectivity of the region.

Sarama anticipates commencing reconnaissance exploration activities on the recently granted properties in the second half of 2013.

The exploration permits give Sarama the exclusive right to explore for gold and associated minerals during an initial term of 3 years.  Subject to certain statutory obligations being met, the permit is renewable for a further two 3-year terms, after which time, the permit will be eligible for conversion to an exploitation permit.

Figure 3:    Sarama’s Exploration Properties in Central South Burkina Faso

Sarama’s President and CEO, Andrew Dinning commented:

“We are pleased to have been granted these new permits in two of our existing project areas.  Our position at the South Houndé Project continues to strengthen with the addition of the Bini property and we look forward to commencing our reconnaissance exploration programs in the upcoming exploration season.

Sarama is well funded with a cash balance of approximately US$11M at the end of March 2013 and is currently finalising regional exploration programs in the south of the MM Prospect which are expected to contribute to the maiden resource estimate planned for Q3 2013.”

For further information on the Company’s activities, please contact:

Andrew Dinning or Paul Schmiede
email:  info@saramaresources.com
telephone: +61 8 9363 7600

About Sarama Resources Ltd
Sarama Resources Ltd is a Canadian company with a focus on the exploration and development of gold deposits in West Africa.  The board of directors and management team, a majority of whom are founders of the Company, are seasoned resource industry professionals with extensive experience in the exploration and development of world-class gold projects in Africa.

The South Houndé Project in south-west Burkina Faso is the Company’s flagship property and is currently the focus of an aggressive exploration program to increase the size of its maiden discovery and to test gold-in-soil anomalies located in a 30km-long structural corridor.  Recent drilling programs at the South Houndé Project have intersected significant mineralisation in several prospect areas which the Company is actively following up.  The Company has built substantial early-stage exploration landholdings in prospective and underexplored areas of Burkina Faso (>3,300 km²), Liberia (>880 km²) and Mali (>560 km²) and is aggressively exploring across the property portfolio.

Caution Regarding Forward Looking Statements
Information in this news release that is not a statement of historical fact constitutes forward-looking information.  Such forward-looking information includes statements regarding the Company’s planned exploration programs.  Actual results, performance or achievements of the Company may vary from the results suggested by such forward-looking statements due to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors. Such factors include, among others, that the business of exploration for gold and other precious minerals involves a high degree of risk and is highly speculative in nature; few properties that are explored are ultimately developed into producing mines; geological factors; the actual results of current and future exploration; changes in project parameters as plans continue to be evaluated, as well as those factors disclosed in the Company’s publicly filed documents.

There can be no assurance that any mineralisation that is discovered will be proven to be economic, or that future required regulatory licensing or approvals will be obtained. However, the Company believes that the assumptions and expectations reflected in the forward-looking information are reasonable. Assumptions have been made regarding, among other things, the Company’s ability to carry on its exploration activities, the sufficiency of funding, the timely receipt of required approvals, the price of gold and other precious metals, that the Company will not be affected by adverse political events, the ability of the Company to operate in a safe, efficient and effective manner and the ability of the Company to obtain further financing as and when required and on reasonable terms. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information.

Sarama does not undertake to update any forward-looking information, except as required by applicable laws.

Qualified Person’s Statement

Scientific or technical information in this news release that relates to the Company’s exploration activities in Burkina Faso is based on information compiled or approved by Michel Mercier Michel Mercier is an employee of Sarama Resources Ltd and is a member in good standing of the Ordre des Géologues du Québec and has sufficient experience which is relevant to the commodity, style of mineralisation under consideration and activity which he is undertaking to qualify as a Qualified Person under National Instrument 43-101.  Michel Mercier consents to the inclusion in this report of the information, in the form and context in which it appears.

Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

SOURCE Sarama Resources Limited

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SA tooling and Manufacturing tackle revival challenge

Posted on 14 May 2013 by Africa Business

South Africa’s tooling and manufacturing sectors are aggressively tackling skills challenges, and modernising and growing their operations, with a view to taking on global manufacturing giants.

AfriMold, is the 4th annual manufacturing trade fair and conference for the design, precision engineering & machining, automotive component, tooling, tool making, production and application development sectors, and is taking place 4 – 6 June at the NASREC Expo Centre in Johannesburg.


Speaking ahead of this year’s AfriMold manufacturing trade fair from 4 – 6 June at the NASREC Expo Centre in Johannesburg, key industry players said South Africa’s manufacturing sector is experiencing a new spirit of revival, on the back of an aggressively modernising and growing tooling sector.

Dirk van Dyk, CEO of the National Tooling Initiative Programme, and representative of the Tooling Association of South Africa (TASA), noted that statistics released by ISTMA (International Specialized Tooling and Machining Association at the recent World Tooling Conference in Toronto, Canada, indicate that up to 50% of any manufactured component’s cost competiveness is governed by Tooling. However, the local TDM sector only provides approximately 20% of the local manufacturing sector’s tooling requirements. “The opportunity is there for the local TDM sector to increase this percentage significantly,” he said.

“There are more than 500 local Tool, Die and Mould manufacturing companies involved in local support of the manufacturing value chain ranging from 1st to 4th tier suppliers. The local tooling sector is gearing up for growth, presenting a positive outlook for manufacturing, and with it – job creation.”

Skills development is a key component of the tooling and manufacturing industry’s growth plans, says industry heads.

Van Dyk said the TDM Powered Pilot project, which started in 2010 as part of the turnaround strategy for the distressed tooling industry, has entered its 4th year of piloting with 408 students on Level II and Level III of the Apprenticeship Programme at 12 FET institutions in the country.

The National Skills Fund has allocated funding to Instimbi through the dti to fund another apprenticeship programme with 650 students at 12 FET institutions in the country.  It is envisaged that these students should be placed by May 2013.

In addition, enterprise development is reaching companies country wide through benchmarking exercises (based on international best practice and comparison to peers) to guide local Tool, Die and Mould manufacturing companies towards increased competiveness. Intervention projects are launched to aid companies on this journey.  A new round of benchmarking will start with 30 companies in April 2013.

Coenraad Bezuidenhout, Executive Director of Manufacturing Circle, says the Manufacturing Circle is launching two important initiatives to support government’s local procurement initiative and set an important example to the private sector, and to broaden its membership. The organisation plans to rapidly increase the approximately 200 000 manufacturing jobs that the Circle membership gives direct representation to today, and to include many more smaller and medium-sized manufacturers in the Manufacturing Circle. On 16 May, the Manufacturing Circle will launch its 2013 Q1 Manufacturing Circle Quarterly Survey on manufacturing business conditions, with a new component that will provide an indicator of the measure to which manufacturers procure locally, as well as the degree to which government’s local procurement impacts on manufacturers.

Meanwhile, the automotive sector, seen as a potentially promising growth area for local manufacturing, is seeking greater engagement with local organisations.

Roger Pitot, Executive Director of the National Association of Automotive Components and Allied Manufacturers (NAACAM) says: “We must double vehicle production volumes to over a million, and we must significantly increase local content from the present dismal 35%.”

Pitot says NAACAM members employ almost 50,000 people with a turnover last year of R57 billion. The total automotive sector, including vehicle assemblers, employs over 100,000 in manufacturing and 200,000 in sales and service operations.

“Unfortunately, the automotive trade deficit has been growing and reached an all-time high of R49 billion in 2012, mainly due to a record 72% of all cars sold in South Africa being imported. Exports in 2012 at R87 billion almost recovered to the record achieved in 2008, but the outlook for the future depends largely on the global economic situation, particularly in Europe, our biggest market.  The local auto industry has to compete globally, therefore our focus is on improving our competitiveness through efficiencies and cost reductions.”

Pitot adds: “Areas of uncompetitiveness include certain materials such as steel, wages, logistics and, increasingly, electricity. So opportunities lie in improving our efficiencies and our technological capabilities. These include manufacture of higher-level tooling, more local R&D and developing capabilities to produce the lighter and greener components that will form part of vehicles in future.”

The challenges and potential growth areas for design, precision engineering & machining, automotive component, tooling, tool making, production and application development sectors will come under the spotlight at the 4th annual AfriMold conference and trade fair. The event, a partner of the highly successful EuroMold trade fair, is endorsed by major industry bodies, as well as by the Department of Trade and Industry.

Ron MacLarty, Managing Director of AfriMold, says: “AfriMold 2013 will continue to innovate and push boundaries for the manufacturing industries’ continued growth and improved competitiveness as we strive for collaboration and cohesion on the home front.”

Bob Bond, Chairman of the Plastics Institute of South Africa (PISA) Northern Branch and AfriMold Conference Convenor, says the event’s theme, ‘Enabling For Tomorrow with a focus on precision engineering and tooling as a key enabler for the South African manufacturing sector, was chosen in light of the renewed drive for competitiveness.

Among the issues to be addressed at the conference are:

· What the SA Automotive sector expects from the local tooling industry

· Industrial Design: The Competitive Edge for Tooling and Manufacture

· Solutions for super profitable tool rooms

· How to fund equipment with IDC money

· Initiatives to boost Toolmaking Enterprises Development.

The AfriMold Trade Fair and Conference will also include the PISA/ AfriMold Student Design Presentations and PISA Member Awards.

For more information about AfriMold, visit www.afrimold.co.za or contact Terri Bernstein at Tel: +27 83 635 3539 or terri@afrimold.co.za

 

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