Container ship transporting cargo. Image courtesy of RSA Global Forwarding.
Fuel prices have become one of the most visible symbols of pressure on businesses and consumers. For companies dependent on logistics, however, the effect extends far beyond what it costs to fill a vehicle.
Fuel feeds into road transport, warehousing, distribution, shipping and ultimately the cost of moving goods through increasingly complex supply chains. When energy markets become volatile, those pressures can move quickly through freight networks and into the prices businesses pay.
In South Africa, that pressure became particularly visible in September 2026. From 2 September, both grades of petrol increased by R1.29 a litre. Wholesale diesel increased by R2.939 a litre for 0.05% sulphur diesel and R3.149 a litre for 0.005% sulphur diesel.[1]
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources said the average Brent crude price increased from $82.37 to $87.85 a barrel during the review period. It cited continued US-Iran tensions, uncertainty over oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and higher shipping costs, alongside shortages in international petroleum-product markets.[1]
The international environment remains volatile. On 9 September, Brent crude moved back above $100 a barrel as renewed conflict in the Middle East raised concerns about oil supplies and shipping through the Gulf.[2]
For logistics businesses and their customers, this creates an important question. Rising costs are real, but how should companies determine which increases are unavoidable and which should be challenged?
For Craig du Toit, Managing Director of RSA Global Forwarding South Africa, periods of volatility reveal an important distinction between simply supplying logistics services and actively helping customers manage supply-chain risk.
“Businesses shouldn’t be asking whether fuel prices affect logistics – they undoubtedly do. The more important question is how companies respond to those pressures. The fuel crisis is real, and no one in our industry is immune to it. Every shipment, every delivery and every kilometre travelled costs more today than it did a year ago. Anyone can explain why prices are rising. The real value lies in showing customers what you’re doing to minimise those increases. That’s the difference between a logistics provider and a logistics partner.”
Fuel is only one part of the freight bill
A higher diesel price has an obvious effect on road transport, but logistics pricing is rarely determined by fuel alone.
Freight rates can also be affected by vessel capacity, port congestion, insurance, currency movements, labour costs, equipment availability, route diversions and changes in demand. These variables mean that the effect of an energy shock can differ considerably between trade routes, transport modes and individual businesses.
Global container markets illustrate that complexity. Drewry’s World Container Index stood at $4,465 per 40-foot container on 3 September 2026. The overall index was stable week on week, but movements on individual routes varied substantially. Shanghai-to-Los Angeles spot rates increased 5% to $7,185 per 40-foot container, for example, while Asia-Europe routes moved in the opposite direction.[3]
Drewry’s September market assessment describes the container market as “balanced to tightening”. Its data show average container-shipping fuel costs reaching $666 in August, up 3% month on month, while schedule reliability stood at only 46% in July. Average port waiting times also increased.[4]
The numbers demonstrate why businesses should be cautious about using one global index, or one movement in fuel prices, as an explanation for every change in their logistics bill.
Different routes can experience substantially different pressures at the same time.
Shipping fuel is facing pressure of its own
The energy shock is also reaching ocean freight directly.
Fuel oil used by ships has tightened as geopolitical disruption affects refinery operations and refiners prioritise higher-value products such as diesel and gasoline. Reuters reported in early September that stocks at major bunkering hubs including Singapore, Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and Fujairah were around 30% below seasonal norms.[5]
Very-low-sulphur fuel oil prices in Singapore had also risen sharply since the beginning of the Iran conflict, adding another potential source of pressure to international shipping costs.[5]
This matters to African importers and exporters even when their cargo does not move directly through the Middle East.
Global shipping operates as an interconnected system. Higher bunker costs, reduced refinery output, constrained vessel availability, congestion or route changes in one part of the network can ultimately affect freight availability and pricing elsewhere.
For businesses, therefore, the price of fuel is only the most visible part of a much broader supply-chain challenge.
The transparency question
The difficult issue arises when businesses receive higher transport and logistics charges.
Customers generally understand that geopolitical shocks, fuel increases and disruptions to international freight can raise costs. But that does not mean every increase should simply be accepted without scrutiny.
Du Toit believes transparency has become one of the most important parts of the relationship between a logistics business and its customers.
“Customers understand that markets are volatile, they read the same headlines as everyone else. What they’re looking for is honesty. If costs need to increase, explain why. Show what you’re doing to minimise the impact. Businesses don’t expect every challenge to disappear overnight, but they do expect transparency, accountability and a genuine commitment to finding solutions. That’s how long-term partnerships are built.”
That requires more than passing higher costs down the supply chain.
Businesses can examine whether shipments can be consolidated, whether delivery schedules can be adjusted, whether routes can be optimised and whether a different combination of road, sea and air freight could reduce exposure.
The point is not that every cost increase can be avoided. Rather, customers should be able to understand what has changed, why it has changed and what their logistics provider has done to mitigate the impact.
Efficiency becomes more valuable in volatile markets
Route optimisation, shipment consolidation and improved planning are sometimes treated mainly as operational-efficiency projects. During periods of high fuel prices and freight-market volatility, they become more directly connected to margin protection.
Better forecasting can reduce expensive emergency shipments. Consolidation can improve load utilisation. Greater shipment visibility can allow companies to identify disruptions earlier and consider alternative routes before a delay becomes significantly more expensive.
Technology can also give logistics teams more information with which to compare transport options, monitor shipments and identify inefficiencies that were previously difficult to see.
But technology does not eliminate geopolitical or commodity-price risk.
A business cannot optimise its way out of a major disruption to global oil supply. What it can do is reduce avoidable costs around that disruption and improve its ability to react when conditions change.
For businesses operating on thin margins or with high logistics intensity, that distinction can be significant.
What happens when fuel prices fall?
The current environment also raises another important question: if fuel prices eventually decline, should logistics charges decline with them?
Du Toit believes businesses have a legitimate reason to reopen the discussion when conditions improve.
“Will pricing come down when fuel prices do? It should certainly prompt a conversation. Pricing is influenced by many factors beyond fuel alone, but businesses should be reviewing their cost structures just as rigorously when markets improve as they do when they deteriorate. Transparency has to work both ways.”
The important qualification is that freight costs do not necessarily move in perfect alignment with crude oil.
A fall in Brent does not automatically reverse port congestion, insurance premiums, vessel shortages, currency movements or other increases that have accumulated elsewhere in the supply chain.
Equally, however, a fuel surcharge introduced because diesel prices increased sharply should remain connected to the underlying cost it was designed to recover.
For procurement and finance teams, this makes it increasingly important to understand how logistics prices are constructed rather than concentrating only on the total invoice.
Businesses can ask which charges are directly linked to fuel, which reflect international freight markets, how frequently surcharges are reviewed and which benchmarks are being used.
South African businesses face multiple layers of exposure
For South African companies, international oil volatility is amplified by the country’s dependence on internationally priced crude oil and petroleum products, shipping costs and movements in the rand-dollar exchange rate.
The September fuel adjustment illustrates how several variables can interact. While the average Brent price rose during the review period, the rand strengthened from an average R16.46 to R16.26 against the dollar, partially offsetting the impact. At the same time, higher international petroleum-product prices and changes to domestic fuel-price components added pressure.[1]
This is why supply-chain planning cannot rely on the assumption of stable energy costs.
Businesses exposed to road freight, imported inputs or international shipping increasingly need to consider scenarios involving oil prices, exchange rates, freight capacity, route availability and delivery times.
From price negotiation to resilience
The fuel-price debate ultimately raises a broader strategic issue.
A logistics relationship should not be evaluated only when freight prices are rising. The same questions about efficiency, transparency and value should continue when market conditions improve.
Businesses should know where their supply-chain costs originate, which components are variable and how quickly providers respond when those variables change.
The most resilient supply chains will not necessarily be those that always secure the lowest quoted freight rate.
They will be those that provide businesses with enough visibility to understand risk, enough flexibility to respond when conditions change and enough transparency to distinguish genuine external cost pressure from avoidable inefficiency.
Fuel prices will rise and fall. Freight markets will tighten and loosen. Geopolitical disruption will change shape.
The challenge for businesses is therefore not simply to survive the latest price shock. It is to build supply chains that remain understandable, adaptable and accountable when the next one arrives.
Sources and Information
[1] South Africa Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources — Fuel Price Adjustments Effective 2 September 2026
The department reported a R1.29/litre increase for petrol, increases of R2.939–R3.149/litre for diesel, and an increase in the average Brent crude price from $82.37 to $87.85 during the review period.
Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources: September 2026 fuel price adjustment
[2] Reuters — Brent crude rises above $100 as Middle East conflict intensifies, 9 September 2026
Brent moved above $100 a barrel amid renewed concerns over Middle Eastern oil supplies and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
Reuters: Brent crude rises above $100 a barrel
[3] Drewry — World Container Index, 3 September 2026
Drewry’s global benchmark remained at $4,465 per 40-foot container, while individual trade lanes continued to move in different directions.
Drewry World Container Index
[4] Drewry — Container Shipping Market Signals, September 2026
Drewry assessed the market as balanced to tightening. Average August fuel costs reached $666, up 3% month on month, while schedule reliability was 46% in July.
Drewry Container Shipping Market Signals
[5] Reuters — Ship fuel shortage looms as refiners strained by war, 7 September 2026
Reuters reported tightening global fuel-oil supply and stocks at major bunkering hubs around 30% below seasonal norms.
Reuters: Ship fuel shortage looms as refiners favour other products
About Craig du Toit
Craig du Toit is Managing Director of RSA Global Forwarding South Africa.