BY Warren Alberts, Chief Executive Officer at VAS-X
The MVNO market is entering a new phase. Not long ago, launching a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) was about disrupting the telecoms market. Early entrants saw an opportunity to offer consumers greater choice and lower prices without the enormous cost of building and maintaining a mobile network. Today, however, the motivation has shifted. Increasingly, organisations are launching MVNOs not to become telecom providers, but to strengthen their core businesses, deepen customer relationships and unlock new revenue opportunities.
Banks are bundling connectivity with financial services to gain richer customer insights and build loyalty. Retailers are rewarding shoppers with free data, while insurers are using mobile services to improve customer engagement and create additional revenue streams. According to Africa Analysis, South Africa’s MVNO market is expected to grow from 4.4 million active SIMs in 2025 to 14.4 million by 2030.
The opportunity is clearly still expanding. The challenge is that as more brands enter the market, standing out becomes increasingly difficult.
For many years, the obvious way to differentiate an MVNO was through lower prices. But when every provider competes on cost, that strategy quickly becomes unsustainable. Consumers also need a compelling reason to switch providers. Changing mobile networks involves time, administration and effort, meaning marginally cheaper airtime or data is rarely enough to drive meaningful customer migration.
Is the market becoming overcrowded?
I recently attended MVNO Nation in Cape Town, and one thing stood out to me. In previous years, conversations happened naturally. Visitors wanted to understand how the market worked, explore new opportunities and discuss what was possible. This year felt different. Attendance was strong and the event remained valuable, but the excitement that characterised earlier years seemed noticeably more subdued.
That isn’t because the market has stopped growing. Rather, many of the most obvious consumer opportunities have already been claimed.
Take the banking sector. Three of South Africa’s four major banks already operate MVNOs, while the remaining major player is preparing to launch its own mobile offering. Retailers were also among the earliest non-telecom brands to recognise the strategic value of becoming MVNOs, and today several leading retail groups have already established their own services.
As more organisations compete for similar customer segments, simply launching another consumer-focused MVNO is no longer enough. Success increasingly depends on serving a clearly defined market with a differentiated value proposition that extends well beyond connectivity.
The next growth opportunity
While consumer MVNOs may be approaching maturity, the next phase of growth is likely to come from enterprise connectivity and the Internet of Things (IoT).
South Africa’s IoT market is projected to grow from approximately $4.85 billion in 2026 to around $14.54 billion by 2030. As more businesses deploy connected devices, demand for reliable machine-to-machine connectivity will continue to accelerate. Worker safety wearables, vehicle tracking systems, soil moisture sensors, smart utility meters and remote patient monitoring solutions all rely on secure, scalable mobile connectivity.
In this market, it is no longer just people who need SIM cards. Machines do too.
Consider a leading vehicle tracking company managing around two million connected vehicles. An MVNO built around a customer of that scale could immediately support millions of active SIMs. While IoT SIMs generate significantly lower revenue per connection than consumer subscriptions, they create value through scale, long-term contracts and predictable usage patterns.
Importantly, enterprise customers are rarely looking for connectivity alone. They increasingly expect integrated solutions that combine connectivity with device management, security, analytics and operational visibility. That creates opportunities for MVNOs to compete on expertise and value rather than price.
Looking ahead
If someone approached me today with plans to launch a greenfield consumer MVNO, my advice would be simple: think carefully before doing so.
The days of launching a mobile brand and expecting customers to arrive simply because another option exists are largely behind us. Building a sustainable consumer MVNO has become increasingly challenging as the market matures and competition intensifies.
That doesn’t mean the opportunity has disappeared. It has simply shifted.
The next successful MVNO is unlikely to win by offering cheaper airtime or data packages. It will succeed by solving connectivity challenges for businesses operating at scale, where thousands—or even millions—of connected devices create long-term value. In my view, that is where the next chapter of MVNO growth will be written.