By Richard Li
STEEL Advisory Partners (@STEELAdvisory) on X (formerly Twitter)
Since the covid-19 pandemic, African countries have shown an extraordinary resilience in overcoming adversities. According to World Bank data, economic growth in the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region has consistently outperformed global growth since 2022. However, there are ominous signs that things will be more challenging in the future. Since the start of Trump’s second presidency, his administration has been vociferous against countries that do not agree to his terms and conditions and has not hesitated in using economic and military warfare. While everyone knew that during his second term, President Trump would aggressively use tariffs in his economic and foreign policies, it was with shock and awe that the world received the announcement of his “Liberation Day” on April 2nd, 2025.
Almost all African countries were slapped with high tariffs. Except for China, most countries, from advanced economies in Europe to emerging economies in Africa, Asia and Latin America, acquiesced to Trump’s demands to negotiate so as to significantly reduce the tariffs. Moreover, the Trump administration has not hesitated to use gunboat diplomacy against countries and even intervened in Venezuela to capture President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. It is with great dismay that the whole world is witnessing all these events where “Might makes Right”. Even the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, in his recent speech at Davos, said that the world is experiencing a rupture in the international order. All these actions and reactions from various countries/governments have been and will continue to be very disruptive and chaotic so much so that uncertainty will be the new certainty for Africa and the world.
African Economic Outlook
From 2023 onward, when the World Health Organisation declared the covid-19 pandemic to be over, global growth has been hovering at around 2.8%, according to the World Bank data. For 2026, global growth is forecast to be 2.6%, with advanced economies lagging at 1.6% and emerging markets outperforming at 4.0%. However, according to the Centre for the New Economy and Society, in their most recent polling, 53% of chief economists expect a weakening of the global economy in 2026.
For the Sub-Saharan African region, it grew by 3.0%, 3.7% and 4.0% in 2023, 2024 and 2025 respectively. In the aftermath of the covid-19 challenges, the SSA region has consistently outperformed global growth. For 2026, the World Bank forecasts that SSA will still outperform the world, growing by a forecast 4.3%. On a country level, it is very encouraging to see that 35 out of the 54 African countries are consistently growing above 3% over the last few years. Moreover, out of these countries, 15 of them are growing above 5%.
The fastest growing African countries are mainly small economies and the top 5 are Guinea (7.5%), Benin (7.3%), Ethiopia (7.2%), Rwanda (7.0%) and Zimbabwe (6.6%). Except for South Africa, the major African economies are also churning out an above 3% growth rate. Africa’s largest economy, South Africa, has been barely growing at 0.7%, 0.6% and 1.3% in 2023, 2024 and 2025 respectively; and its economic growth forecast is barely 1.4% in 2026. As for the other major African economies, Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria, Morocco and Kenya grew at around 4% and above in 2025. For 2026, their growth rate forecast is 4.3%, 3.5%, 4.4%, 4.4% and 4.9% respectively.
Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Risks
Uncertainty is now the new certainty. In the latest 2026 Global Risks Perception Survey, most have a negative view of the world in the short and long term. 50% anticipate a turbulent or stormy outlook in the next 2 years, increasing to 57% over the next 10 years. The top risk factors are ‘geoeconomic confrontation’ and ‘state-based armed conflict’. Compared to 2025, geoeconomic confrontation has the biggest jump in ranking, The other risk factors that also have a big jump are mainly economic – economic downturn, inflation, asset bubble burst and disruption to critical infrastructure.
According to Uppsala Conflict Data Program, a state-based armed conflict is a conflict between two armed groups where at least one is a state and where at least 25 deaths occured. The African continent has been experiencing an increasing number of armed conflicts. Since 2020, there have been military coups in Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Niger, Sudan and others. Islamist groups are not only very active in the Sahel region, but also in Somalia with Al-Shabaab and in Nigeria with Boko Haram. Civil wars are ongoing in Sudan and Libya, while the M23 group is active in the Democratic Republic of Congo, fighting over natural resources. According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, in 2021, conflict occurred in 18 African states and high intensity ones in 12 of them.
In addition to all these, foreign actors are also getting more involved in Africa to push their own geopolitical agendas and maintain their influence. While China has long supported African countries economically and diplomatically, it has recently increased its security engagements with its Global Security Initiative. Russia provides military assistance to various armed groups and military juntas, mainly in Libya, Chad, Sudan, the Sahel region and other African countries. Developed countries like the United States and France also maintain military personnel and bases in various African countries. Even the Middle East countries are getting more involved in Africa, particularly in the Horn and Eastern part of Africa. While Gulf countries have invested billions in various projects with the United Arab Emirates being the biggest investor, to push forward their geopolitical agendas, they have not only supported various armed groups in ongoing conflicts, but also built military bases.
Geoeconomic confrontation is basically economic coercion to fulfill certain geopolitical objectives and is now the top risk factor in 2026. Since the start of his second presidency, Trump has demonstrated that geoeconomic confrontation will be used aggressively to achieve his aims. With the announcement of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’, most African countries were slapped with tariffs. Lesotho got the highest tariffs at 60% while South Africa received 31%. Even the tiny island of Mauritius was slapped with a 50% tariff. Trump forced African countries to make a deal. Except for South Africa at 30%, most of the tariffs have now been reduced to the baseline of 10%. Besides tariffs, President Trump has also used sanctions and visa restrictions against African countries.
Conclusion
2026 will bring about many challenges. However African countries have demonstrated that they are extremely resilient in the face of external adversities. All these challenges can be a catalyst for African countries to implement the necessary economic reforms for their economies to leap forward. One of the ways to mitigate external shocks will be to use their natural resources as leverage when dealing with major trade partners. Another way will be to remove trade barriers and accelerate their economic integration with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA); thereby drastically increasing economic opportunities through their intra-trade activities. African countries must unite together and find the silver lining among the dark clouds.