By Sven Lindström, Executive VP, Midsummer
A tsunami of cheap Chinese solar panels flooding Europe, an increasing taste for rooftop solar and a boom for small, medium and large-scale battery storage. These are the three strongest trends in solar energy as we move into the new year, as seen by Midsummer Executive VP Sven Lindström.
I have predicted global solar and renewable trends for the past ten years. Most of them, but far from all, have been accurate and looking back it strikes me how much the global renewable energy market has changed over the years – and continues to change. For 2025 my crystal ball shows me the following:
1. Chinese solar panels will continue to flood the European market
High US tariffs on Chinese solar cells means that Europe is becoming a more important export market for Chinese solar companies. The incoming Trump government might raise tariffs on Chinese goods even higher so the Chinese are now in a hurry to get goods into the US before Trump takes office. After that, focus will be on the EU.
There are reports that solar panels are being sold for under €0.06/W in the EU. Short-term good for the consumer, perhaps? Maybe, but not necessarily. With solar panels + inverters for under €0.1/W, further reductions will not lead to much lower prices for the end consumer. The bottom has probably been reached.
Long-term this is bad for the environment since silicon solar panels transported across half the world are not nearly as environmentally friendly as locally solar cells produced with green energy.
For the European solar cell manufacturing industry the Asian price dumping is a disaster. There is a lot of solar cell manufacturing capacity being built in the USA, shielded by the tariffs. But the lack of European tariffs means that the EU is basically in a process of closing down its own solar cell manufacturing. India recently announced that it is banning import of solar panels from China, to protect its own industry. It is a crucial economic and geopolitical decision. The EU is doing… nothing.
2. A bright future for battery storage
More renewable energy in the electricity system provides an incredibly bright future for small, medium and large-scale battery storage. The market is growing at record speed and government subsidies enhance this development. The benefits are many: A more stable electricity system, good preparedness for power cuts and reduced costs for the individual and society. The trend is clear; local and central storage of energy is on the rise.
3. Capacity tariffs changing consumer patterns
The cost of the electricity grid will be controlled by instantaneous power and not consumed energy. Capacity tariffs are being introduced in an increasing number of markets which will change consumer patterns. With the cost of electricity being controlled by e.g. how much power you take from the grid rather than merely kWh consumed, the system will favour the use of electricity at night when households and industry consume less electricity. But it will also, naturally, favour households and businesses producing their own electricity with no or less need to buy electricity from the grid.
This is basically a good thing as I would rather see capacity tariffs than the weird variable charge per kWh used. Wires are not worn out by electricity passing through them, so a variable electricity grid fee is much less suitable and logical than a capacity tariff. The “fixed” electricity cost should only consist of capacity tariffs.
4. Boom for rooftop solar energy
An electricity grid with very intermittent electricity production (wind, solar) will benefit solar cell installations on roofs instead of large solar parks. Electricity production “behind the electricity meter” on your own roof is much more profitable than feeding electricity into the main grid from a solar farm. On a factory roof, electricity consumption in the factory decreases and makes the network more stable. This together with the EU’s new directive that new buildings in public environments and subsequently all new buildings must be equipped with solar cells, create perfect conditions for a solar rooftop boom which will increase the proportion of solar panels on roofs in relation to large solar parks across the EU.
This is also an area where specialized European solar cells manufacturers can compete with Chinese producers of silicon solar panels. The latter are cheap and quite simple products. But they (and their racks) are heavy, too heavy for most roofs. So European manufacturers of more sophisticated products like thin film solar cells that are suitable for roofs and maybe even vehicles and various devices can find a large and profitable niche here.
Sven Lindström is co-founder and Executive Vice President of Midsummer, a Swedish solar energy company that develops and markets equipment for the production of thin film solar cells and manufactures, sells and installs solar roofs. Mr. Lindström has over 20 years of experience from international business and development of high-tech production equipment, including advanced solar energy solutions. See http://www.midsummer.se/en/.
